Forfar are tipped to win, the model’s pick, as the match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with a 26% chance of exactly two goals. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.9% probability. Forfar’s home form shows they average 2.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against similar opponents, while Edinburgh City, playing away, averages 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 50% for a Forfar win, 27% for a draw and 23% for an Edinburgh City win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.0%), Home +2 handicap (90.9%) and Under 4.5 (86.6%). Each pick is listed with its exact percentage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City win
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
1.80
1.13
0.80
1.80
vs Stronger (14)
1.14
2.07
1.62
1.50
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (13)
1.62
0.77
2.17
0.67
1.14
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.10
1.12
2.19
0.93
2.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.67
0.43
3.00
0.40
2.20
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.50
1.67
1.17
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
2.17
1.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.0%
Under 1.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.2%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.2%
Forfar goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.0%
3.8%
1.3%
0.4%
1
10.0%
13%
6.2%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.1%
9.6%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.9%
5.2%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.0%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Forfar and Edinburgh City are level in average points per game (both 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Forfar is 0.20 goals worse than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Forfar is 0.60 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 4.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
For 3.1 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.2
8.6
2.4
2.7
2.2
23.3
22.6
24.0
vs Stronger (22)
10.1
10.1
10.0
2.2
3.0
1.3
24.5
23.1
26.8
vs Similar (24)
8.9
10.1
8.1
2.4
1.9
2.7
22.9
22.6
23.2
vs Weaker (4)
9.7
10.5
8.0
4.0
4.5
3.5
21.0
21.0
21.0
% over line
55%
69%
40%
34%
42%
27%
65%
62%
67%
% under line
45%
31%
60%
66%
58%
73%
35%
38%
33%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.2
9.9
3.1
3.0
3.2
23.5
24.1
23.0
vs Stronger (21)
10.3
9.2
11.6
2.8
3.1
2.5
24.6
24.5
24.8
vs Similar (19)
9.0
8.6
9.2
3.2
2.1
4.4
23.6
24.2
23.2
vs Weaker (10)
9.6
10.0
9.0
3.6
5.2
2.5
21.7
23.5
19.3
% over line
55%
40%
69%
48%
44%
52%
65%
67%
62%
% under line
45%
60%
31%
52%
56%
48%
35%
33%
38%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Forfar or Draw
76.6%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Forfar + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar or Edinburgh City
73.0%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Forfar + Edinburgh City
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Edinburgh City
50.4%
Avg Implied -
50%
27%
23%
covers Draw + Edinburgh City
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Forfar over/under 0.5
Over
80.4%
Under
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 3.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5
Over
28.4%
Under
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Forfar, so a minus line means Forfar give that many goals of a start and Edinburgh City receive them. At -1, Forfar must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Forfar win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Forfar)
Forfar -2
11.4%
Draw -2
15.5%
Edinburgh City +2
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Forfar)
Forfar -1
26.9%
Draw -1
22.7%
Edinburgh City +1
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Forfar)
Forfar +1
76.6%
Draw +1
14.3%
Edinburgh City -1
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Forfar)
Forfar +2
90.9%
Draw +2
6.5%
Edinburgh City -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
1.00
0.53
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.07
1.12
0.88
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.15
1.00
0.17
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.69
1.00
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.42
0.43
1.86
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.58
0.83
0.00
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.80
0.60
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.62
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
1.17
0.50
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.13
0.44
1.19
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
1.25
0.00
1.14
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.92
0.83
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Edinburgh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Elgin
Clyde
Stranraer
Spartans
Annan Athletic
Kelty Hearts
Stirling
Dumbarton