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Forfar vs Elgin Result & Analysis

Date: 02/01/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Forfar
Forfar
Vs
38%
26%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Forfar win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.23
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.52
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.78
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ForfarForfar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L00D13L10W01L14L11D22D10W21WH·STI24/09H·DUM01/10H·EAS08/10A·ELG15/10A·STR29/10H·ANN05/11H·BON12/11A·DUM19/11H·ALB03/12A·STE10/12
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.171.131.270.931.07
vs Stronger (14)0.930.861.001.000.860.71
vs Similar (16)1.121.441.251.501.001.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W32W10W01L12L32W04L31W21W12LH·ANN01/10A·STR08/10H·ALB11/10H·FOR15/10A·EAS29/10A·BON05/11H·DUM12/11A·ANN19/11H·STE03/12H·STI23/12
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.571.311.561.501.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.001.441.001.401.001.50
vs Weaker (21)1.571.621.451.641.701.60
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.0%
@ 1.64+3.4%
Under 2.5
40.0%
@ 2.14-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.6%
Under 3.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.0%
0-1 ✓
5.8%
0-0
5.6%
2-0
5.5%
Forfar goals ↓
Elgin goals →
01234
05.6%5.8%5.3%2.7%1.0%
16.0%12%8.3%4.2%1.6%
25.5%8.5%6.5%3.3%1.3%
32.9%4.4%3.4%1.7%0.7%
41.1%1.7%1.3%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Forfar is 0.22 points better than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.11).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Forfar is 0.19 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.22).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Forfar is 0.53 goals better than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.72).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ForfarForfar

For 4.4 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

1703410626892762333945327168179861295A·STEH·ALBA·DUMH·BONH·ANNA·STRA·ELGH·EASH·DUMH·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8021334122231532232213654248453A·STEH·ALBA·DUMH·BONH·ANNA·STRA·ELGH·EASH·DUMH·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.5 · Total 21.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

3101513119847581019121414108126141428201212183128181828A·STEH·ALBA·DUMH·BONH·ANNA·STRA·ELGH·EASH·DUMH·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ElginElgin

For 3.2 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.5

ðŸšĐ Corners

140210156733210323365212461261361256111410H·STIH·STEA·ANNH·DUMA·BONA·EASH·FORH·ALBA·STRH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.1

ðŸŸĻ Cards

80231122321362354232225245488654H·STIH·STEA·ANNH·DUMA·BONA·EASH·FORH·ALBA·STRH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

3001115797511861515131414191112139926161219212828302518H·STIH·STEA·ANNH·DUMA·BONA·EASH·FORH·ALBA·STRH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ForfarForfar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.810.29.43.53.33.821.920.823.0
vs Stronger (23)10.310.99.73.73.24.221.419.922.8
vs Similar (27)9.49.79.23.43.43.422.321.523.2
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line50%60%40%54%44%64%46%44%48%
% under line50%40%60%46%56%36%54%56%52%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.58.48.74.34.34.322.623.022.1
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (15)8.58.98.03.73.14.422.321.822.9
vs Weaker (35)8.68.19.04.54.94.222.723.621.8
% over line32%24%40%60%64%56%57%60%54%
% under line68%76%60%40%36%44%43%40%46%
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.3
Stenhousemuir
10.1
Forfar
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.6
Albion Rvs
9.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.2
Stranraer
9.1
East Fife
9.1
Stirling
8.8
Elgin
8.5

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.6
Elgin
4.3
Dumbarton
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Stirling
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Albion Rvs
3.7
East Fife
3.7
Forfar
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.6
Stirling
22.0
Forfar
21.9
Stranraer
21.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.6
Stenhousemuir
21.5
Albion Rvs
21.5
Dumbarton
20.9
East Fife
20.8
Annan Athletic
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.9%
Under 9.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.0%
Under 3.5
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
45.0%
Under 21.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ForfarForfar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D02L10W01L02L00D11D10W10WH·STI24/09H·DUM01/10H·EAS08/10A·ELG15/10A·STR29/10H·ANN05/11H·BON12/11A·DUM19/11H·ALB03/12A·STE10/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.600.470.800.400.40
vs Stronger (14)0.290.430.290.570.290.29
vs Similar (16)0.560.750.621.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D00D01L01L30W01L20W21W01LH·ANN01/10A·STR08/10H·ALB11/10H·FOR15/10A·EAS29/10A·BON05/11H·DUM12/11A·ANN19/11H·STE03/12H·STI23/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.690.690.860.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.440.440.200.400.750.50
vs Weaker (21)0.900.620.910.820.900.40
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ForfarForfar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D00D00D12L11D11D00D11DH·STI24/09H·DUM01/10H·EAS08/10A·ELG15/10A·STR29/10H·ANN05/11H·BON12/11A·DUM19/11H·ALB03/12A·STE10/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.570.670.470.530.67
vs Stronger (14)0.640.430.710.430.570.43
vs Similar (16)0.560.690.620.500.500.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElginElgin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W10W10W00D11D02L03L11D00D11DH·ANN01/10A·STR08/10H·ALB11/10H·FOR15/10A·EAS29/10A·BON05/11H·DUM12/11A·ANN19/11H·STE03/12H·STI23/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.000.620.880.641.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.561.000.801.000.251.00
vs Weaker (21)0.671.000.550.820.801.20
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls83.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.582.7%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards80.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards73.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls70.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
FOR wins
5
Draws
1
ELG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Forfar vs Elgin · H/A from FOR
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22AElgin Vs FOR0-1
13/08/22HFOR Vs Elgin2-2
05/03/22HFOR Vs Elgin0-0
02/01/22AElgin Vs FOR1-0
06/11/21HFOR Vs Elgin2-1
21/08/21AElgin Vs FOR1-1
18/03/17AElgin Vs FOR1-1
11/02/17HFOR Vs Elgin1-1

ForfarForfar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/22AStenhousemuir Vs FOR1-2
03/12/22HFOR Vs Albion Rvs1-0
19/11/22ADumbarton Vs FOR2-2
12/11/22HFOR Vs Bonnyrigg Rose1-1
05/11/22HFOR Vs Annan Athletic1-4
29/10/22AStranraer Vs FOR1-0
15/10/22AElgin Vs FOR0-1
08/10/22HFOR Vs East Fife1-3
01/10/22HFOR Vs Dumbarton0-0
24/09/22HFOR Vs Stirling1-4

ElginElgin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/12/22HELG Vs Stirling1-2
03/12/22HELG Vs Stenhousemuir2-1
19/11/22AAnnan Athletic Vs ELG1-3
12/11/22HELG Vs Dumbarton0-4
05/11/22ABonnyrigg Rose Vs ELG2-3
29/10/22AEast Fife Vs ELG2-1
15/10/22HELG Vs Forfar0-1
11/10/22HELG Vs Albion Rvs1-0
08/10/22AStranraer Vs ELG2-3
01/10/22HELG Vs Annan Athletic5-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Forfar
Forfar
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWW1.44
HomeDLLDW1.60
AwayWWLDW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals2.562.842.28
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %40%48%32%
Over 3.5 %28%36%20%
Scored1.381.601.16
Conceded1.181.241.12
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners9.8210.249.40
Cards3.543.323.76
Elgin
Elgin
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.16
HomeWLLWL1.32
AwayDWLWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%24%
AVG goals2.742.562.92
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %50%40%60%
Over 3.5 %32%28%36%
Scored1.201.201.20
Conceded1.541.361.72
BTTS54%48%60%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners8.548.368.72
Cards4.304.324.28

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StirlingStirling3673
58%
2.0
6737+30
2.9
83%
61%
36%
9.7
47%
4.3
58%
21.4
47%
0
0001.91.0
-
2DumbartonDumbarton3662
50%
1.7
4939+10
2.4
69%
42%
25%
9.3
47%
4.9
72%
20.5
44%
0
0001.41.1
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3651
39%
1.4
6151+10
3.1
86%
67%
44%
9.9
50%
4.3
64%
20.2
44%
0
0001.71.4
-
4East FifeEast Fife3650
39%
1.4
5450+4
2.9
78%
58%
36%
9.7
42%
4.4
64%
21.4
44%
0
0001.51.4
-
5ForfarForfar3648
36%
1.3
3743-6
2.2
67%
39%
17%
10.7
58%
3.7
56%
22.0
50%
0
0001.01.2
-
6StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3647
33%
1.3
5155-4
2.9
86%
61%
33%
11.1
72%
4.1
61%
20.8
33%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StranraerStranraer3645
33%
1.2
4357-14
2.8
72%
47%
39%
9.8
50%
3.8
50%
21.1
50%
0
0001.21.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose
3642
31%
1.2
3647-11
2.3
67%
39%
19%
9.5
50%
4.3
61%
22.1
58%
0
0001.01.3
-
9ElginElgin3640
31%
1.1
4462-18
2.9
81%
61%
33%
8.8
42%
4.2
64%
21.8
53%
0
0001.21.7
-
10
AR
Albion Rvs
3639
31%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
72%
47%
28%
9.9
53%
4.3
67%
22.0
47%
0
0001.31.3
-
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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