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Forfar vs Kelty Hearts Result & Analysis

Date: 19/02/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Forfar
Forfar
Vs
40%
24%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Forfar win✓ Hit
40.4%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.31
Edge
+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.48
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts win✗ Miss
36.1%
Avg Implied 45.9% · @ 2.00
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

ForfarForfar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W20W40W34L01L32W22D23L20W11DA·ALB04/12H·STI11/12A·EDI17/12H·STE26/12A·ELG02/01H·STR08/01A·ANN15/01H·EDI31/01H·ALB05/02A·STI15/02
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.302.131.401.401.20
vs Stronger (13)1.691.312.331.171.141.43
vs Similar (15)1.871.202.141.431.621.00
vs Weaker (2)1.502.001.502.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W20W61W40W15L30W22D02L32W40WH·FOR13/11H·STE20/11H·ALB11/12A·STR18/12A·ANN26/12A·STI08/01H·EDI15/01A·ELG25/01H·STR29/01H·ELG05/02
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.270.952.170.672.401.30
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)2.430.573.250.501.330.67
vs Weaker (15)2.201.131.620.752.861.57
Clean sheet %45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.2%
@ 1.71+15.6%
Under 2.5
29.8%
@ 2.05-15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.0%
Under 3.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
70.8%
No
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
7.2%
3-1
5.1%
2-0
4.6%
1-3
4.5%
3-2
4.5%
Forfar goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
01234
03.5%3.8%4.1%2.4%1.1%
14.1%9.6%7.7%4.5%2.0%
24.6%8.2%7.2%4.2%1.9%
32.9%5.1%4.5%2.6%1.2%
41.3%2.4%2.1%1.2%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Forfar is 0.58 points worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.25).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Forfar is 0.31 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.89).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Forfar is 0.22 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.78).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

ForfarForfar

For 6.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.2

ðŸšĐ Corners

17045778391981472639225914111017599117A·STIH·ALBH·EDIA·ANNH·STRA·ELGH·STEA·EDIH·STIA·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

802223112253233214052485051A·STIH·ALBH·EDIA·ANNH·STRA·ELGH·STEA·EDIH·STIA·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 8.4 · Total 20.3

⚠ïļ Fouls

2801061311127137128199812107101212516241920202820172217A·STIH·ALBH·EDIA·ANNH·STRA·ELGH·STEA·EDIH·STIA·ALB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

For 5.2 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

13054396234421216593311391287613111244H·ELGH·STRA·ELGH·EDIA·STIA·ANNA·STRH·ALBH·STEH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

703114332213322133275216044H·ELGH·STRA·ELGH·EDIA·STIA·ANNA·STRH·ALBH·STEH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 10.2 · Total 20.9

⚠ïļ Fouls

24010812101014111014101271111711911111018222421241922182021H·ELGH·STRA·ELGH·EDIA·STIA·ANNA·STRH·ALBH·STEH·FOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

ForfarForfar

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.88.78.93.33.13.522.021.422.6
vs Stronger (29)8.68.19.03.22.93.521.520.122.7
vs Similar (18)9.610.58.83.63.63.623.123.023.2
vs Weaker (3)7.06.09.02.32.52.021.024.015.0
% over line34%38%31%54%46%62%54%54%54%
% under line66%62%69%46%54%38%46%46%46%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (22)9.09.08.93.13.22.920.920.521.3
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (7)9.69.59.73.33.03.720.620.021.3
vs Weaker (15)8.78.88.63.03.42.621.020.821.3
% over line41%33%50%36%42%30%41%25%60%
% under line59%67%50%64%58%70%59%75%40%
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Cowdenbeath
9.9
Albion Rvs
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.6
Stenhousemuir
9.6
Stirling
9.4
Elgin
9.2
Stranraer
9.1
Edinburgh City
9.0
Kelty Hearts
9.0
Forfar
8.8

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.1
Stirling
4.1
Stranraer
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Cowdenbeath
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.5
Forfar
3.3
Kelty Hearts
3.1
Albion Rvs
3.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Stirling
23.6
Stranraer
22.9
Annan Athletic
22.9
Cowdenbeath
22.6
Stenhousemuir
22.6
Elgin
22.2
Forfar
22.0
Albion Rvs
21.8
Edinburgh City
21.1
Kelty Hearts
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.5%
Under 9.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
47.9%
Under 21.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ForfarForfar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D30W14L00D11D21W02L10W10WA·ALB04/12H·STI11/12A·EDI17/12H·STE26/12A·ELG02/01H·STR08/01A·ANN15/01H·EDI31/01H·ALB05/02A·STI15/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.500.800.800.930.20
vs Stronger (13)0.770.311.000.500.570.14
vs Similar (15)0.930.600.571.001.250.25
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W21W30W11D10W10W01L20W20WH·FOR13/11H·STE20/11H·ALB11/12A·STR18/12A·ANN26/12A·STI08/01H·EDI15/01A·ELG25/01H·STR29/01H·ELG05/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.140.410.920.251.400.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.000.431.250.500.670.33
vs Weaker (15)1.200.400.750.121.710.71
Clean sheet %64% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ForfarForfar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D20W10W20W01L21W01L21W10W01LA·ALB04/12H·STI11/12A·EDI17/12H·STE26/12A·ELG02/01H·STR08/01A·ANN15/01H·EDI31/01H·ALB05/02A·STI15/02
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.801.330.600.471.00
vs Stronger (13)0.921.001.330.670.571.29
vs Similar (15)0.930.601.570.430.380.75
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.501.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W40W10W04L20W12L01L12L20WH·FOR13/11H·STE20/11H·ALB11/12A·STR18/12A·ANN26/12A·STI08/01H·EDI15/01A·ELG25/01H·STR29/01H·ELG05/02
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.140.551.250.421.000.70
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.430.142.000.000.670.33
vs Weaker (15)1.000.730.880.621.140.86
Clean sheet %68% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards87.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls81.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners80.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards75.6%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes70.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners70.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.2%1.71-----+15.6%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Kelty Hearts have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Kelty Hearts have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Kelty Hearts have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
FOR wins
1
Draws
1
KH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Forfar vs Kelty Hearts · H/A from FOR
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/21AKelty Hearts Vs FOR1-0
14/08/21HFOR Vs Kelty Hearts2-2

ForfarForfar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/02/22AStirling Vs FOR1-1
05/02/22HFOR Vs Albion Rvs2-0
31/01/22HFOR Vs Edinburgh City2-3
15/01/22AAnnan Athletic Vs FOR2-2
08/01/22HFOR Vs Stranraer3-2
02/01/22AElgin Vs FOR1-0
26/12/21HFOR Vs Stenhousemuir3-4
17/12/21AEdinburgh City Vs FOR0-4
11/12/21HFOR Vs Stirling2-0
04/12/21AAlbion Rvs Vs FOR2-3

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/02/22HKH Vs Elgin4-0
29/01/22HKH Vs Stranraer3-2
25/01/22AElgin Vs KH2-0
15/01/22HKH Vs Edinburgh City2-2
08/01/22AStirling Vs KH0-3
26/12/21AAnnan Athletic Vs KH5-1
18/12/21AStranraer Vs KH0-4
11/12/21HKH Vs Albion Rvs6-1
20/11/21HKH Vs Stenhousemuir2-0
13/11/21HKH Vs Forfar1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Forfar
Forfar
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWD1.22
HomeWLWLW1.29
AwayWWLDD1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%27%
AVG goals2.703.042.38
Over 1.5 %80%88%73%
Over 2.5 %46%54%38%
Over 3.5 %30%38%23%
Scored1.301.541.08
Conceded1.401.501.31
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners8.828.718.92
Cards3.303.123.46
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW2.36
HomeWWDWW2.50
AwayWWLWL2.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %73%75%70%
AVG goals3.232.833.70
Over 1.5 %82%75%90%
Over 2.5 %59%42%80%
Over 3.5 %45%33%60%
Scored2.272.172.40
Conceded0.950.671.30
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet45%50%40%
Corners8.959.008.90
Cards3.093.252.90

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3681
67%
2.2
6828+40
2.7
69%
47%
33%
9.0
39%
3.2
36%
20.0
33%
1
1001.90.8
-
2ForfarForfar3660
44%
1.7
5736+21
2.6
78%
36%
28%
9.3
47%
3.1
44%
22.2
47%
0
0001.61.0
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3659
50%
1.6
6451+13
3.2
86%
64%
42%
9.5
47%
3.8
53%
21.7
46%
0
0001.81.4
-
4Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3652
39%
1.4
4349-6
2.6
75%
47%
31%
8.9
50%
3.1
36%
19.6
31%
0
0001.21.4
-
5StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3649
36%
1.4
4746+1
2.6
78%
42%
28%
9.8
53%
3.7
61%
21.2
53%
0
0001.31.3
-
6StranraerStranraer3647
36%
1.3
5054-4
2.9
81%
53%
33%
8.8
39%
4.3
58%
22.1
53%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StirlingStirling3642
31%
1.2
4146-5
2.4
67%
44%
25%
8.4
25%
3.8
56%
21.7
47%
0
0001.11.3
-
8
AR
Albion Rvs
3639
28%
1.1
3758-21
2.6
67%
50%
33%
8.8
33%
3.0
33%
20.1
42%
0
0001.01.6
-
9ElginElgin3637
25%
1.0
3351-18
2.3
81%
36%
19%
8.1
22%
3.9
53%
22.9
60%
0
0000.91.4
-
10CowdenbeathCowdenbeath3629
19%
0.8
2849-21
2.1
64%
36%
17%
9.1
33%
3.9
53%
21.5
53%
0
0000.81.4
-
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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