Forfar are tipped to win the match at home, with a 45% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of a Stirling win. The model expects an average of 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Forfar’s home form shows they score an average of 1.67 goals and concede only 0.33 against similarly matched opponents, while Stirling’s away form sees them net 1.86 goals and concede 1.14 against comparable opposition. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners at 86.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 83.3%, Under 10.5 corners at 78.9%, Under 25.5 fouls at 75.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.2%, Under 3.5 goals at 74.0%, Over 19.5 fouls at 72.3% and Over 2.5 cards at 71.2%. The model’s selection favours a Forfar win, with the overall shape of a tight contest where both sides are likely to score.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved accurate as Forfar secured a 2-0 victory over Stirling, extending their recent run of wins and draws. The pre-match favourite was a Home win, assigned a 45% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model also selected several outcomes: Under 11.5 corners (86.8% probability) hit, Under 5.5 cards (83.3%) hit, Under 10.5 corners (78.9%) missed, Under 25.5 fouls (75.0%) hit, Over 1.5 (74.2%) hit, Under 3.5 (74.0%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (72.3%) hit, and Over 2.5 cards (71.2%) hit. All predictions were settled, with the majority achieving their expected results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✓ Hit
45.1%
Avg Implied 48.5% · @ 1.89
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.52
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.60
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.30
1.57
1.29
1.06
1.31
vs Stronger (18)
1.33
1.44
1.56
1.44
1.11
1.44
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.67
1.67
0.33
1.17
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
2.33
1.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.13
1.20
1.13
1.53
1.13
vs Stronger (15)
1.40
1.07
1.57
1.00
1.25
1.12
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.20
0.88
1.25
1.86
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.7%
@ 1.81-3.8%
Under 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.92+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
2-0 ✓
8.4%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
Forfar goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.0%
4.5%
1.6%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.2%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.2%
4.5%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Forfar is 0.50 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Forfar is 0.44 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Forfar is 0.28 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 4.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 9.6 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.0 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.3 · Against 10.0 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
7.8
8.9
3.1
2.8
3.3
22.3
21.7
22.8
vs Stronger (31)
8.5
7.8
9.2
3.1
3.3
3.0
21.4
20.3
22.4
vs Similar (14)
8.3
8.2
8.4
3.3
2.2
4.1
24.7
24.7
24.8
vs Weaker (5)
7.6
6.7
9.0
2.2
2.0
2.5
21.0
22.7
18.5
% over line
28%
25%
31%
44%
33%
54%
56%
54%
58%
% under line
72%
75%
69%
56%
67%
46%
44%
46%
42%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.1
9.8
4.0
3.3
4.6
23.9
23.7
24.0
vs Stronger (27)
9.3
9.9
8.7
3.8
3.1
4.4
23.6
23.5
23.7
vs Similar (23)
10.7
10.3
11.2
4.2
3.5
4.8
24.2
24.0
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
57%
41%
60%
43%
74%
66%
65%
67%
% under line
52%
43%
59%
40%
57%
26%
34%
35%
33%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albion Rvs
10.1
Stirling
9.9
Cowdenbeath
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.6
Stenhousemuir
9.6
Elgin
9.6
Stranraer
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.0
Kelty Hearts
8.5
Forfar
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.1
Cowdenbeath
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.8
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Stranraer
3.6
Edinburgh City
3.6
Albion Rvs
3.1
Forfar
3.1
Kelty Hearts
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stirling
23.9
Annan Athletic
23.4
Stranraer
22.9
Cowdenbeath
22.8
Stenhousemuir
22.6
Forfar
22.3
Elgin
22.2
Edinburgh City
22.1
Albion Rvs
21.8
Kelty Hearts
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
31.6%
Under 9.5
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.3%
Under 21.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.64
0.50
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
0.44
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.11
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.67
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.60
0.29
0.57
0.50
0.62
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
0.25
0.75
1.14
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.93
0.79
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
1.00
1.00
0.89
0.44
1.11
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
0.47
1.29
0.43
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
0.62
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →