Forfar are tipped to win this encounter, the model’s pick showing a 48% chance of a home victory against a 27% draw and 25% away win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly open game, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 26% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.9% chance that both sides will find the net. Forfar, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded, while Stirling away from home averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 80.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.1%, Over 1.5 at 76.7% (miss), Over 2.5 cards at 75.6% (miss), Under 3.5 at 71.0%, and Under 10.5 corners at 70.6%. The match is expected to be competitive, with Forfar’s recent draw against Edinburgh City and Stirling’s recent defeat to Elgin setting the stage for a tight contest.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Stirling, the pre-match favourite with a 48% chance of triumph, slipped to a 1-0 away win, proving the model’s call wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away victory, extending Stirling’s run after a defeat. The model’s prediction of a home win was incorrect, and the expected total of 2.7 goals was not reached. Among the suggested picks, Under 25.5 fouls at 80.7% hit, Under 11.5 corners at 80.3% hit, Under 5.5 cards at 79.1% hit, Under 3.5 at 71.0% hit, and Under 10.5 corners at 70.6% hit. Over 1.5 at 76.7% missed, and Over 2.5 cards at 75.6% missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
48.3%
Avg Implied 48.6% · @ 1.89
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.49
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✓ Hit
24.7%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.67
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.13
2.00
1.12
1.43
1.14
vs Stronger (14)
1.57
1.00
1.88
0.88
1.17
1.17
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.27
2.14
1.43
1.62
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.50
1.27
1.60
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
1.54
1.43
1.57
0.83
1.50
vs Similar (17)
1.24
1.47
1.12
1.62
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.1%
@ 1.78-1.3%
Under 2.5
48.9%
@ 1.96+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.5%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
6.5%
0-1 ✓
6.1%
2-2
5.2%
Forfar goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
6.1%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.5%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.5%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.1%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kelty Hearts
2.25
Forfar
1.67
Annan Athletic
1.64
Edinburgh City
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.36
Stranraer
1.31
Stirling
1.17
Albion Rvs
1.08
Elgin
1.03
Cowdenbeath
0.81
Forfar is 0.50 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kelty Hearts
1.89
Annan Athletic
1.78
Forfar
1.58
Stranraer
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.19
Stirling
1.14
Albion Rvs
1.03
Elgin
0.92
Cowdenbeath
0.78
Forfar is 0.44 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kelty Hearts
0.78
Forfar
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.28
Stirling
1.28
Cowdenbeath
1.36
Edinburgh City
1.36
Annan Athletic
1.42
Elgin
1.42
Stranraer
1.50
Albion Rvs
1.61
Forfar is 0.28 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 6.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 9.0 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 3.9 · Against 3.9 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.9
9.3
3.3
3.0
3.5
22.2
21.6
22.8
vs Stronger (29)
8.8
8.5
9.1
3.1
2.8
3.5
21.7
20.6
22.8
vs Similar (18)
9.9
10.5
9.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
23.3
23.0
23.6
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
6.0
9.0
2.3
2.5
2.0
21.0
24.0
15.0
% over line
40%
44%
36%
52%
40%
64%
54%
56%
52%
% under line
60%
56%
64%
48%
60%
36%
46%
44%
48%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.3
4.1
3.2
5.0
23.4
23.7
23.1
vs Stronger (24)
8.5
9.1
7.8
3.7
2.8
4.7
23.5
24.0
23.0
vs Similar (26)
10.0
9.5
10.5
4.5
3.7
5.1
23.3
23.4
23.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
44%
36%
62%
44%
80%
60%
68%
52%
% under line
60%
56%
64%
38%
56%
20%
40%
32%
48%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stenhousemuir
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.6
Cowdenbeath
9.6
Albion Rvs
9.4
Stirling
9.3
Kelty Hearts
9.2
Forfar
9.1
Elgin
9.1
Stranraer
9.0
Edinburgh City
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stirling
4.1
Elgin
4.0
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stranraer
4.0
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.4
Forfar
3.3
Albion Rvs
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stirling
23.4
Stranraer
23.1
Annan Athletic
22.5
Elgin
22.5
Stenhousemuir
22.2
Forfar
22.2
Cowdenbeath
22.2
Albion Rvs
21.9
Edinburgh City
20.9
Kelty Hearts
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.2%
Under 9.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.9%
Under 3.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.8%
Under 21.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.69
0.69
0.93
0.21
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.21
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.67
0.57
1.00
1.25
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.69
0.43
0.57
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.76
0.38
1.00
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.31
0.44
0.50
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
0.79
1.12
0.50
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.60
1.57
0.43
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.87
0.80
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.85
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.71
0.75
0.62
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →