Forfar are tipped to win this encounter, with a 46% chance of a home victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a Stirling win. The model expects 2.4 goals on average, most likely a total of two goals at a 27% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% chance. Forfar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, typically score 2.0 goals and concede 1.44, while Stirling on the road against a similar side average 1.0 goal scored and 1.25 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 80.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.4%, Under 3.5 at 77.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.9% and Over 1.5 at 70.7%. The home win probability is 46%, the draw probability 29% and the away win probability 25%.
Results analysis
The upset was clear: Forfar’s home form, a draw in the last match, suggested a modest edge, yet the match ended 1-4 in favour of Stirling. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 46% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection of Under 25.5 fouls, with an 80.2% chance, missed, while Over 2.5 cards at 78.5% hit, as did Under 11.5 corners at 78.4%. Under 3.5, at 77.6%, missed; Under 5.5 cards at 75.9% hit, and Over 1.5 at 70.7% hit. The final score of 1-4 confirmed the away win, overturning expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
45.8%
Avg Implied 41.3% · @ 2.22
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.25
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.01
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.10
1.80
1.07
1.20
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
0.79
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.75
1.38
2.00
1.44
1.43
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.38
1.38
0.79
1.21
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.38
0.71
1.57
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.24
1.89
1.22
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.4%
@ 1.88-6.2%
Under 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.85+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.4%
Under 3.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
10.2%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.2%
2-2
4.4%
Forfar goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.6%
4.4%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.0%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.3%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.5%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Forfar is 0.69 points worse than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Forfar is 0.83 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Forfar is 0.17 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 6.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 9.9 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.3 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.3
9.6
3.2
3.0
3.5
22.3
21.6
23.1
vs Stronger (24)
9.5
8.8
10.0
3.2
2.6
3.7
21.7
20.8
22.4
vs Similar (24)
9.8
10.3
9.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
22.8
21.8
23.8
vs Weaker (2)
6.0
6.0
-
2.5
2.5
-
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
50%
56%
44%
46%
32%
60%
52%
56%
48%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
54%
68%
40%
48%
44%
52%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.6
8.8
3.8
3.0
4.8
22.4
22.5
22.2
vs Stronger (22)
8.0
7.7
8.4
3.6
2.9
4.3
22.3
23.7
20.9
vs Similar (28)
9.2
9.2
9.2
4.0
3.1
5.2
22.4
21.7
23.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
28%
31%
25%
58%
38%
79%
50%
54%
46%
% under line
72%
69%
75%
42%
62%
21%
50%
46%
54%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.1
Stenhousemuir
10.0
Forfar
9.5
Annan Athletic
9.4
Stranraer
9.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.0
East Fife
9.0
Albion Rvs
8.9
Elgin
8.8
Stirling
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stranraer
4.2
Dumbarton
4.1
Annan Athletic
3.9
Elgin
3.9
Stirling
3.8
Stenhousemuir
3.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
3.7
Albion Rvs
3.3
East Fife
3.2
Forfar
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.5
Stirling
22.4
Forfar
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.1
Stranraer
21.9
Dumbarton
21.7
Stenhousemuir
21.6
Albion Rvs
21.0
East Fife
20.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.8%
Under 9.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.8%
Under 3.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.4%
Under 21.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.29
0.33
0.33
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.81
0.78
1.11
1.00
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.75
0.56
0.29
0.64
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.54
0.14
0.43
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.65
1.22
0.67
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.20
0.27
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
0.50
1.17
0.17
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.56
1.22
0.33
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.62
0.81
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.85
0.57
1.14
0.17
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.59
0.67
0.56
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dumbarton
Annan Athletic
East Fife
Stenhousemuir
Stranraer
Elgin