The contest between Forfar and Stirling is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 32% for Forfar, 28% for a draw, and 40% for Stirling. The average number of goals expected is 2.7, with the most likely total being two goals at a 26% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Forfar, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Stirling, on the road against a similar side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 81%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.3%, Over 1.5 at 75.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.7%, Under 3.5 at 72.0%, and Over 8.5 corners at 70.1%. Each selection is presented with its probability and no other outcome is attached to it.
Results analysis
The unexpected draw left the pre-match favourite stunned; the model had tipped an away win with 40% confidence, but the result was a 0-0 stalemate. Forfar, fresh from a 1-1 draw, and Stirling, after a 0-4 loss, both failed to break the deadlock. The model’s selection was therefore wrong. Over 2.5 cards, at 81%, missed, while Under 25.5 fouls at 78.3% hit. Over 1.5 at 75.9% missed, but Under 5.5 cards at 72.7% hit. Under 3.5 at 72% and Over 8.5 corners at 70.1% both hit. The match ended in a goalless draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 2.96
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.30
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
39.6%
Avg Implied 41.2% · @ 2.23
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.31
1.38
1.00
0.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.92
1.00
1.33
0.71
0.57
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.29
1.50
1.40
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.10
2.07
1.00
1.47
1.20
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.07
1.33
1.33
1.11
0.89
vs Similar (15)
2.33
1.13
2.56
0.78
2.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.83-1.1%
Under 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.91+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.6%
0-0 ✓
8.1%
2-1
7.7%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
6.9%
2-2
5.5%
Forfar goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
8.6%
6.9%
3.3%
1.2%
1
7.4%
14%
8.7%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.4%
7.7%
5.5%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.3%
3.2%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Forfar is 0.69 points worse than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Forfar is 0.83 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Forfar is 0.17 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 5.2 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 10.0 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.4 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.6
9.4
3.6
3.4
3.8
21.9
21.1
22.9
vs Stronger (22)
10.6
11.5
9.6
3.8
3.5
4.2
21.5
20.6
22.3
vs Similar (28)
9.6
9.9
9.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
22.3
21.4
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
63%
43%
52%
41%
65%
46%
44%
48%
% under line
46%
37%
57%
48%
59%
35%
54%
56%
52%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.0
8.9
4.1
3.2
4.9
22.1
21.3
22.7
vs Stronger (23)
8.5
7.3
9.2
4.5
4.0
4.8
23.7
25.0
22.8
vs Similar (27)
9.3
9.9
8.5
3.7
2.7
5.0
20.7
19.1
22.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
34%
42%
27%
58%
38%
77%
52%
46%
58%
% under line
66%
58%
73%
42%
62%
23%
48%
54%
42%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.4
Forfar
10.1
Annan Athletic
9.7
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.6
Albion Rvs
9.4
Stranraer
9.3
East Fife
9.1
Stirling
8.9
Elgin
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dumbarton
4.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Stirling
4.1
Stenhousemuir
4.0
Albion Rvs
4.0
East Fife
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.8
Forfar
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.4
Albion Rvs
22.1
Stirling
22.1
Forfar
21.9
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.5
Stranraer
21.2
Stenhousemuir
21.0
Annan Athletic
20.9
East Fife
20.9
Dumbarton
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.0%
Under 9.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.3%
Under 3.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
52.1%
Under 21.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.56
0.75
0.43
0.29
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.38
0.33
0.67
0.14
0.14
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.65
0.70
0.80
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.20
0.47
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.44
vs Similar (15)
1.33
0.73
1.67
0.33
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.75
0.62
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.54
0.67
0.67
0.57
0.43
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.65
0.80
0.60
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.87
0.53
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.53
0.83
0.67
0.44
0.44
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.40
0.89
0.44
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →