The contest is razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win yet the probabilities are close: 33% for Forfar, 28% for a draw, 39% for Stirling. The expected goal total sits at 2.7, but the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% chance. Forfar, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Stirling on the road against a similar side nets 2.25 and concedes only one. Recent form adds intrigue: Forfar are coming off a 1-1 draw with Edinburgh City, whereas Stirling return after a 0-4 loss to Elgin. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 79.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 79.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.3%, and Under 3.5 goals at 71.1%. Each pick is presented with its probability, and the edge for those with an edge_pct is noted. The match remains a tight affair, with the away side holding a slight edge.
Results analysis
The match finished 2-2, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s pick of an away win - disappointed. With a 39% chance, the model had expected Stirling to triumph, but the result proved otherwise. The model’s other selections performed well: Over 2.5 cards (79.7%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (79.0%) hit, Over 1.5 (76.6%) hit, Under 5.5 cards (74.3%) hit, while Under 3.5 (71.1%) missed. Forfar’s recent form, coming off a draw, and Stirling’s recent form, coming off a defeat, both set the stage for a tightly contested game that ultimately ended in a stalemate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied 46.9% · @ 1.96
Edge
-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.44
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
38.5%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.48
Edge
+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.37
1.12
1.19
0.64
1.57
vs Stronger (20)
0.95
1.30
1.22
1.11
0.73
1.45
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.62
1.17
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.63
1.25
1.69
1.43
1.57
vs Stronger (19)
1.05
1.89
1.10
1.80
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.67
1.33
1.20
1.60
2.25
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.0%
@ 1.90+1.8%
Under 2.5
49.0%
@ 1.84-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
7.9%
0-0
7.9%
1-0
7.4%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
5.6%
Forfar goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
8.2%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.4%
13%
8.6%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.6%
7.9%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.4%
3.4%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Forfar is 0.33 points worse than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Forfar is 0.58 goals worse than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Forfar is 0.42 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 6.9 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.3 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 5.7 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 9.7 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.9
3.5
3.2
3.9
24.2
23.8
24.6
vs Stronger (31)
9.4
10.1
8.9
3.7
3.7
3.7
24.8
23.7
25.9
vs Similar (14)
9.8
8.8
11.4
3.5
3.1
4.2
24.1
24.1
24.0
vs Weaker (5)
12.0
11.3
13.0
2.6
1.0
5.0
21.0
23.3
17.5
% over line
50%
43%
57%
52%
48%
57%
70%
65%
76%
% under line
50%
57%
43%
48%
52%
43%
30%
35%
24%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.7
10.7
3.6
4.0
3.2
21.3
21.2
21.5
vs Stronger (35)
10.5
10.1
10.9
3.6
4.1
3.1
21.1
20.9
21.3
vs Similar (13)
11.0
11.8
10.0
3.6
3.7
3.5
22.0
21.5
22.6
vs Weaker (2)
12.5
13.0
12.0
3.5
3.0
4.0
20.5
23.0
18.0
% over line
70%
78%
62%
50%
54%
46%
43%
39%
48%
% under line
30%
22%
38%
50%
46%
54%
57%
61%
52%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.7
Edinburgh City
10.0
Stranraer
9.9
Forfar
9.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Clyde
9.5
East Fife
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Elgin
8.9
Peterhead
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.6
Elgin
4.2
Edinburgh City
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Forfar
3.9
Stranraer
3.9
Clyde
3.8
East Fife
3.7
Spartans
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.2
Elgin
24.8
Forfar
24.5
Bonnyrigg Rose
24.4
East Fife
22.5
Edinburgh City
22.4
Clyde
21.9
Spartans
21.9
Stirling
21.1
Stranraer
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.9%
Under 9.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.5%
Under 3.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.7%
Under 21.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.44
0.69
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
0.45
0.33
0.56
0.27
0.36
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.12
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.69
0.94
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (19)
0.58
0.95
0.60
1.00
0.56
0.89
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.69
0.50
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
0.85
0.89
0.56
0.45
1.09
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.56
0.75
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
0.95
0.50
0.80
0.44
1.11
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.67
0.40
0.80
1.25
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
East Fife
Edinburgh City
Elgin
Spartans
Clyde
Stranraer