Forfar’s defensive record at home shows they concede 0.8 goals per game against teams of similar strength, while Stirling, on the road, averages 1.86 conceded, hinting at a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours an away win, with a 35% chance, and a 32% draw or home win each. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal total with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% chance. Forfar scores 0.6 and concedes 0.8 at home; Stirling scores 1.29 and concedes 1.86 away against similar opposition. The suggested picks are: Over 2.5 cards84.1%, Under 3.583.5%, Over 19.5 fouls81.4%, Under 11.5 corners76.5%. The home win probability is 32%, the draw 32%, and the away win 35%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, fell short as Forfar edged Stirling 4-2, a result that surprised the model’s 35% probability for the visitors. The model’s call was wrong, but its other selections largely held up. Over 2.5 cards hit at 84.1%, and over 19.5 fouls also hit with 81.4%. Under 3.5 cards missed, while under 11.5 corners hit at 76.5%. Forfar, coming off a draw, extended a mixed run with a win, whereas Stirling, after a defeat, saw a disappointing home loss. The match delivered more goals than the model’s 2.1 expected total.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied 50.8% · @ 1.77
Edge
-18.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.28
Edge
+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stirling win✗ Miss
35.1%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.11
Edge
+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.03
0.87
0.93
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (16)
1.00
1.12
1.11
1.00
0.86
1.29
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.90
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.67
1.36
1.64
1.19
1.69
vs Stronger (15)
1.27
1.60
1.29
1.71
1.25
1.50
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.54
1.50
1.17
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.9%
Under 1.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.5%
@ 2.11-8.1%
Under 2.5
64.5%
@ 1.63+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.5%
Under 3.5
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.0%
No
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.4%
0-1
11.7%
1-0
11.1%
1-2
7.3%
0-2
7.1%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
6.4%
Forfar goals ↓
Stirling goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
12%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.3%
2.6%
0.7%
2
6.4%
7.0%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.2%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stirling goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Forfar is 0.33 points better than Stirling in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Forfar is 0.14 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Forfar is 0.44 goals better than Stirling in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 4.9 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 14.3 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stirling
For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 9.3 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.8
10.0
3.8
3.4
4.2
24.9
24.6
25.2
vs Stronger (30)
8.9
8.3
9.4
3.5
2.9
4.1
25.9
24.9
26.8
vs Similar (15)
9.0
8.7
9.3
4.4
4.6
4.1
25.6
26.0
25.2
vs Weaker (5)
12.8
11.5
13.7
3.8
2.5
4.7
19.0
18.0
19.7
% over line
38%
21%
55%
62%
52%
72%
79%
74%
85%
% under line
62%
79%
45%
38%
48%
28%
21%
26%
15%
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.7
9.6
3.5
3.7
3.4
22.1
21.6
22.5
vs Stronger (27)
10.2
10.0
10.4
3.3
3.6
2.9
21.6
20.6
22.7
vs Similar (19)
9.8
10.8
8.8
3.7
3.6
3.8
23.1
23.0
23.2
vs Weaker (4)
11.0
13.5
8.5
4.8
5.5
4.0
20.0
21.5
18.5
% over line
62%
80%
45%
52%
52%
52%
50%
45%
55%
% under line
38%
20%
55%
48%
48%
48%
50%
55%
45%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
13.5
Dumbarton
10.8
Stirling
10.2
Annan Athletic
10.0
Clyde
9.9
Forfar
9.6
Elgin
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Stranraer
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
7.5
Elgin
4.7
Edinburgh City
4.6
Forfar
4.6
Stirling
4.4
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.0
Spartans
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.6
Dumbarton
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
31.0
Forfar
24.8
Elgin
23.9
Edinburgh City
23.9
Clyde
22.6
Spartans
22.3
Stirling
21.7
Stranraer
20.1
Annan Athletic
20.0
Dumbarton
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.2%
Under 9.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
68.0%
Under 3.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.8%
Under 21.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.40
0.27
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.56
0.44
0.33
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.20
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.57
0.86
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
0.73
0.86
0.86
0.75
0.62
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.77
0.33
0.67
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.47
0.67
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (16)
0.62
0.56
0.67
0.67
0.57
0.43
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stirling) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stirling
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.79
0.79
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.87
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.88
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.77
1.17
0.50
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stirling over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stirling have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Stranraer
Elgin
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton
Edinburgh City