PythiaFootballBETA
The contest between Forfar and Stirling is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 34% and 40%, while a draw is 26%. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.9% probability.
Forfar, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Stirling, on the road against a similar opponent, averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded. These figures suggest a tight encounter where both sides can find the net.
The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 83.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.4%, Under 25.5 fouls at 74.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 74.0%, and Over 19.5 fouls at 72.5%. Each is presented with its exact probability, and the only edge noted is the card count. This balanced outlook reflects the narrow margins that could decide the match.
The final score was 0-1, an away win that confirmed the model’s pick and left the total goals far below the expected 3.1. The model had named the away side as favourite with a 40% probability, and this call was correct. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 2.5 cards (83.1%) missed, Over 1.5 (82.4%) missed, Under 25.5 fouls (74.8%) hit, Over 8.5 corners (74.0%) hit, and Over 19.5 fouls (72.5%) hit. The away team, after a defeat, secured a narrow win, while the home side, coming off a draw, failed to score. The match delivered a clear outcome, diverging from the model’s total-goals expectation.
Forfar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.83 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.71 | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.71 | 1.36 | 1.71 | 1.43 | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-0pp vs league) | |||||
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.90 | 1.00 | 2.07 | 1.44 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 1.00 | 2.15 | 0.83 | 2.17 | 1.14 | 2.14 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.36 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.62 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-17pp vs league) | |||||
| Stirling goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 12% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
ForfarStirlingForfar| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 24.3 | 23.6 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 9.0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 25.1 | 23.3 | 27.2 |
| vs Similar (20) | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 25.1 | 25.0 | 25.1 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 10.7 | 7.5 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 19.5 | 18.5 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 37% | 32% | 43% | 68% | 64% | 72% | 77% | 73% | 81% |
| % under line | 63% | 68% | 57% | 32% | 36% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 19% |
Stirling| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 21.1 | 20.5 | 21.7 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 11.5 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 21.3 | 20.2 | 22.3 |
| vs Similar (22) | 11.1 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 21.2 | 21.4 | 21.1 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 8.8 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 19.2 | 17.0 | 21.5 |
| % over line | 65% | 76% | 55% | 52% | 52% | 52% | 42% | 38% | 45% |
| % under line | 35% | 24% | 45% | 48% | 48% | 48% | 58% | 62% | 55% |
Forfar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 1.17 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.14 | 0.43 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 1.14 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 1.21 | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.31 | 1.08 | 0.17 | 1.33 | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.43 | 0.86 | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Forfar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 0.83 | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Stirling| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.69 | 1.08 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| vs Similar (14) | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 82.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 16/08/25 | H | 4-2 | |
| 03/05/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 28/12/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 30/11/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 05/10/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 29/04/23 | A | 2-1 |
Forfar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/01/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/12/25 | H | 4-2 | |
| 20/12/25 | H | 2-3 | |
| 13/12/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 15/11/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 1-1 |
Stirling| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/01/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 27/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/12/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 15/11/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  East Kilbride | 36 | 69 | 58% | 1.9 | 77 | 46 | +31 | 3.4 | 92% | 69% | 50% | 10.4 | 58% | 5.6 | 83% | 26.4 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 2 |  Spartans | 36 | 64 | 50% | 1.8 | 60 | 39 | +21 | 2.8 | 83% | 53% | 28% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 58% | 19.9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 |  Clyde | 36 | 56 | 39% | 1.6 | 58 | 41 | +17 | 2.8 | 83% | 53% | 33% | 9.8 | 42% | 4.1 | 61% | 21.4 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | - |
| 4 | Forfar | 36 | 50 | 36% | 1.4 | 51 | 47 | +4 | 2.7 | 72% | 50% | 36% | 9.2 | 50% | 4.1 | 58% | 23.8 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 |  Stranraer | 36 | 47 | 33% | 1.3 | 46 | 46 | +0 | 2.6 | 78% | 50% | 28% | 11.0 | 63% | 4.3 | 66% | 22.5 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 |  Elgin | 36 | 44 | 31% | 1.2 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 2.9 | 86% | 56% | 25% | 10.5 | 60% | 4.2 | 60% | 22.8 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 |  Annan Athletic | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.9 | 78% | 56% | 36% | 9.9 | 50% | 4.4 | 64% | 23.8 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 8 |  Dumbarton | 36 | 40 | 28% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 3.0 | 92% | 58% | 28% | 10.6 | 54% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.8 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 |  Edinburgh City | 36 | 39 | 28% | 1.1 | 45 | 72 | -27 | 3.2 | 86% | 69% | 44% | 9.5 | 51% | 5.2 | 80% | 23.8 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | Stirling | 36 | 38 | 25% | 1.1 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 3.0 | 83% | 58% | 36% | 11.4 | 58% | 4.1 | 58% | 20.7 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | - |