Forfar are tipped to edge out Stranraer in a 2-0 victory, the model’s pick and the most likely outcome. The expected total of three goals suggests a lively affair, but the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.1% chance. Forfar’s home form shows they average 2.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Stranraer’s away numbers are 1.0 scored and 1.67 conceded. The match carries a 44% chance of a home win, a 26% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of an away win. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 83.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 82.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 82.0%, Over 1.5 at 81.4%, Under 10.5 corners at 73.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 72.6% and Under 23.5 fouls at 70.9%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
Results analysis
Forfar extended their recent run, beating Stranraer 2-0 to confirm the model’s prediction of a home win, a call that was correct. The model had given the home side a 44% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of an away win, and the final score matched the most likely 2-1 outcome in its list of probable results. The model’s selections performed well: Under 25.5 fouls hit at 83.3%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 82.0%, Over 1.5 hit at 81.4% and Under 23.5 fouls hit at 70.9%. However, Under 11.5 corners missed at 82.2%, Under 10.5 corners missed at 73.0% and Over 2.5 cards missed at 72.6%. The match finished with a clear home victory, reflecting Forfar’s solid form after a recent draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✓ Hit
44.1%
Avg Implied 46.1% · @ 1.99
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.38
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.44
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.07
1.93
0.93
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
0.79
1.71
0.43
0.86
1.14
vs Similar (16)
1.88
1.31
2.12
1.38
1.62
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.47
1.13
1.27
1.87
1.67
vs Stronger (24)
1.54
1.29
1.00
0.92
2.08
1.67
vs Similar (6)
1.33
2.17
1.67
2.67
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.0%
@ 1.87+8.2%
Under 2.5
42.0%
@ 1.86-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.1%
2-0 ✓
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
5.5%
Forfar goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
5.5%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
1
7.1%
12%
7.4%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.8%
9.2%
6.2%
2.8%
0.9%
3
3.8%
5.1%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.6%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Forfar is 0.08 points better than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Forfar is 0.17 goals worse than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Forfar is 0.39 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 6.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.8 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 5.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.0
9.7
3.1
2.8
3.4
22.1
21.6
22.5
vs Stronger (25)
9.3
8.8
9.8
3.0
2.4
3.6
21.7
20.9
22.4
vs Similar (22)
9.8
10.0
9.7
3.4
3.4
3.3
22.6
21.9
23.2
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
6.0
9.0
2.3
2.5
2.0
21.0
24.0
15.0
% over line
48%
50%
46%
44%
29%
58%
52%
58%
46%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
56%
71%
42%
48%
42%
54%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.8
8.9
4.1
3.7
4.5
22.1
22.3
22.0
vs Stronger (40)
8.6
8.7
8.5
4.2
3.7
4.7
21.4
21.7
21.2
vs Similar (10)
9.7
9.0
10.2
3.8
3.8
3.8
24.9
25.5
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
48%
28%
56%
44%
68%
52%
56%
48%
% under line
62%
52%
72%
44%
56%
32%
48%
44%
52%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
13.0
Dumbarton
10.7
Stenhousemuir
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.5
East Fife
9.4
Forfar
9.4
Albion Rvs
9.1
Stranraer
8.8
Elgin
8.6
Stirling
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stranraer
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.8
Dumbarton
3.8
Elgin
3.8
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Forfar
3.1
Albion Rvs
3.1
East Fife
3.1
Bonnyrigg Rose
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.6
Stirling
22.5
Stranraer
22.1
Forfar
22.1
Annan Athletic
22.0
Dumbarton
21.9
Stenhousemuir
21.7
Albion Rvs
21.0
East Fife
20.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
38.6%
Under 9.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.0%
Under 3.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
45.0%
Under 21.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.29
0.43
0.29
0.29
0.29
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.40
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (24)
0.88
0.62
0.67
0.33
1.08
0.92
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.20
0.27
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
0.50
1.29
0.14
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.56
1.12
0.38
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.47
0.87
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (24)
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.58
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →