Forfar are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model’s pick for a 44% chance of a win. The odds for a draw sit at 30% and an away win at 26%. The expected total goals hover around 2.3, with the most probable total of two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, a 14.2% probability. Forfar’s home form shows they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Stranraer, on the road, manage only 0.67 goals scored and concede 1.5 on average. The suggested selections are: Over 2.5 cards at 81.0%, Under 3.5 at 79.7%, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.6%, and Over 19.5 fouls at 70.8%. The match is expected to be a tightly contested affair, with Forfar’s home advantage giving them the edge.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Stranraer edged Forfar 1-0, a result that surprised the pre-match favourite. The model had picked a home win with a 44% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed an away victory. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 2.5 cards hit at 81%, Under 3.5 hit at 79.7%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 70.8%. However, Under 25.5 fouls missed at 76.4% and Under 5.5 cards missed at 72.6%. Forfar’s recent form, a draw-heavy run, and Stranraer’s win-heavy streak set the stage for an unexpected finish.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✗ Miss
43.7%
Avg Implied 44.9% · @ 2.03
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.15
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.47
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.40
1.25
1.19
0.57
1.64
vs Stronger (21)
0.90
1.33
1.20
1.10
0.64
1.55
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.71
1.60
1.60
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.30
0.79
1.29
0.94
1.31
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
1.29
0.91
1.36
1.10
1.20
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.7%
@ 2.13-3.1%
Under 2.5
59.3%
@ 1.66+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
12.0%
0-0
11.2%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-1 ✓
8.4%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.7%
Forfar goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.4%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.8%
8.6%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.9%
3.8%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Peterhead
1.83
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.56
Elgin
1.53
Spartans
1.44
Stirling
1.33
Clyde
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Stranraer
1.11
Forfar
1.00
Forfar is 0.11 points worse than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Fife
1.81
Edinburgh City
1.50
Peterhead
1.44
Stirling
1.39
Clyde
1.36
Spartans
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.11
Stranraer
0.94
Forfar
0.81
Forfar is 0.14 goals worse than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
East Fife
1.03
Peterhead
1.11
Elgin
1.14
Stranraer
1.17
Forfar
1.17
Spartans
1.31
Edinburgh City
1.31
Clyde
1.50
Stirling
1.58
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.72
Forfar and Stranraer are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 7.3 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 5.9 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 8.6 · Total 18.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.9
3.6
3.3
3.9
24.7
24.0
25.3
vs Stronger (32)
9.2
9.6
8.9
3.7
3.7
3.6
25.5
24.0
26.9
vs Similar (14)
10.2
9.4
11.4
3.6
3.3
4.2
24.5
24.8
24.0
vs Weaker (4)
12.8
12.5
13.0
3.0
1.0
5.0
19.5
21.5
17.5
% over line
51%
45%
57%
56%
54%
58%
74%
68%
81%
% under line
49%
55%
43%
44%
46%
42%
26%
32%
19%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.0
10.3
3.4
3.3
3.5
19.1
18.6
19.5
vs Stronger (35)
9.1
8.6
9.6
3.5
3.0
4.0
19.8
19.1
20.6
vs Similar (15)
10.8
9.8
11.5
3.3
4.2
2.7
17.4
17.3
17.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
48%
52%
46%
38%
54%
30%
29%
30%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
54%
62%
46%
70%
71%
70%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.5
Stranraer
10.0
Forfar
9.8
Edinburgh City
9.8
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.7
Clyde
9.6
East Fife
9.6
Spartans
9.2
Elgin
8.9
Peterhead
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.2
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.6
Edinburgh City
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Stirling
4.2
Forfar
4.0
Stranraer
3.8
Clyde
3.8
East Fife
3.7
Spartans
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.9
Elgin
24.7
Forfar
24.4
Bonnyrigg Rose
23.8
Edinburgh City
23.1
East Fife
22.6
Spartans
22.2
Clyde
21.8
Stirling
21.3
Stranraer
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.8%
Under 9.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.4%
Under 3.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
54.5%
Under 21.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.50
0.62
0.21
0.57
vs Stronger (21)
0.24
0.43
0.30
0.50
0.18
0.36
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.14
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.36
0.64
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (21)
0.43
0.67
0.45
0.64
0.40
0.70
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.75
0.56
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (21)
0.67
0.90
0.90
0.60
0.45
1.18
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.57
0.60
0.60
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.43
0.64
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (21)
0.57
0.62
0.45
0.73
0.70
0.50
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Peterhead
East Fife
Edinburgh City
Elgin
Spartans
Stirling
Clyde