Forfar’s defensive record at home shows they concede 1.2 goals on average against similarly ranked opponents, while Stranraer’s away form sees them giving up 1.5 goals. The model therefore projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 2.0 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.8% probability, and the overall favourite result is a home win, with a 37% chance, a draw 33%, and an away win 30%. Forfar’s home scoring average of 0.8 goals and Stranraer’s away scoring of 0.75 suggest a modest goal output. The suggested selections include Under 3.5 goals at 85.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 74.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.0% (miss), and Under 25.5 fouls at 72.9% (miss). The match is expected to be a narrow win for Forfar.
Results analysis
The 1-0 win for Forfar extended their recent run, as the team came off a draw at home. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 37% probability, and the call proved correct. The predicted most likely total of 2 goals materialised, with a 28% chance, and the scoreline matched the 1-1 and 1-0 scenarios in the model’s probability spread. Among the suggested selections, Under 3.5 goals (85.6%) hit, Over 2.5 cards (80.0%) hit, Under 11.5 corners (77.3%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (74.3%) hit, while Under 5.5 cards (74.0%) and Under 25.5 fouls (72.9%) missed. Overall, the model’s predictions performed strongly in this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Forfar win✓ Hit
36.6%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.59
Edge
-20.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.4%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.56
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stranraer win✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 17.7% · @ 5.10
Edge
+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.17
0.93
1.07
0.87
1.27
vs Stronger (17)
1.00
1.18
1.11
1.00
0.88
1.38
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.10
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.07
0.94
0.81
1.00
1.36
vs Stronger (21)
0.95
0.95
0.82
0.64
1.10
1.30
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.33
1.20
1.20
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
61.0%
Under 1.5
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.5%
@ 2.02-13.2%
Under 2.5
67.5%
@ 1.70+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.4%
Under 3.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.3%
No
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
14.8%
1-0 ✓
13.0%
0-1
11.3%
2-0
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.9%
Forfar goals ↓
Stranraer goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
11%
5.9%
1.9%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
7.6%
7.2%
3.4%
1.1%
0.2%
3
2.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Forfar goals (down), columns = Stranraer goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Forfar is 0.08 points better than Stranraer in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Forfar is 0.14 goals better than Stranraer in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Forfar is 0.03 goals worse than Stranraer in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Forfar
For 4.9 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 14.2 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stranraer
For 4.8 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 9.8 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.8
3.8
3.3
4.2
24.7
24.0
25.4
vs Stronger (31)
9.0
8.6
9.4
3.6
3.1
4.1
25.8
24.7
26.8
vs Similar (15)
9.5
9.6
9.3
4.1
4.1
4.1
24.8
24.6
25.2
vs Weaker (4)
12.8
11.5
14.0
3.8
2.5
5.0
18.2
18.0
18.5
% over line
41%
30%
53%
60%
50%
71%
77%
70%
84%
% under line
59%
70%
47%
40%
50%
29%
23%
30%
16%
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.5
9.9
3.2
3.3
3.1
20.3
20.3
20.3
vs Stronger (35)
8.9
8.3
9.5
3.1
2.9
3.2
21.2
21.5
20.8
vs Similar (15)
9.8
8.9
10.7
3.6
4.3
3.0
18.7
18.0
19.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
35%
50%
42%
44%
40%
30%
35%
25%
% under line
58%
65%
50%
58%
56%
60%
70%
65%
75%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.7
Stirling
10.4
Annan Athletic
10.1
Clyde
9.8
Forfar
9.6
Stranraer
9.2
Edinburgh City
9.2
Elgin
9.2
Spartans
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Elgin
4.6
Forfar
4.6
Edinburgh City
4.5
Clyde
4.3
Stirling
4.2
Stranraer
4.0
Spartans
4.0
Annan Athletic
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.8
Elgin
23.8
Edinburgh City
23.8
Clyde
22.6
Spartans
22.0
Stirling
21.5
Annan Athletic
19.8
Stranraer
19.6
Dumbarton
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.2%
Under 9.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.9%
Under 3.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
58.7%
Under 21.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.59
0.44
0.33
0.38
0.88
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.50
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.38
0.38
0.29
0.50
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
0.57
0.27
0.45
0.30
0.70
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.11
0.60
0.20
0.25
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
0.59
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Stranraer) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stranraer
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.56
0.44
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (21)
0.67
0.38
0.55
0.18
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (9)
0.56
1.22
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stranraer over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Forfar and Stranraer have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Forfar and Stranraer have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Elgin
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton
Edinburgh City
Stirling