Forfar vs Stranraer Result & Analysis

The contest between Forfar and Stranraer is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 39%. Home and away win chances sit at 32% and 39%, while a draw is 29%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7% probability. Forfar, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, whereas Stranraer on the road averages 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 85.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 74.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.6%, Over 8.5 corners at 74.6%, Under 3.5 goals at 73.5%, Under 25.5 fouls at 72.2%, and Over 3.5 cards at 70.9%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are omitted as none were supplied. This balanced outlook leaves no clear favourite beyond the slight edge to Stranraer.

The draw shocked the pre-match favourite, the away win, which had a 39% probability. The final score of 2-2 confirmed the upset, leaving the model’s call incorrect. Forfar, coming off a draw, had a recent form of DLWDW, while Stranraer, fresh from a win, boasted a WDWLL streak. The model’s selections saw mixed results: Over 1.5 goals hit at 74.6%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 74.6%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 72.2%; Over 2.5 cards, Over 19.5 fouls, Under 3.5, and Over 3.5 cards all missed, with probabilities of 85.9%, 74.9%, 73.5%, and 70.9% respectively. The match delivered more goals than the most likely 2-goal outcome, but the total remained below the 2.6 expectation.