This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.13
1.47
1.20
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (17)
1.41
0.65
1.38
0.50
1.44
0.78
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.77
1.57
2.00
1.33
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.5%
Under 2.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
Under 3.5
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
7.5%
0-0
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
Fortuna Düsseldorf goals ↓
Ingolstadt goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.7%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.2%
13%
7.5%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.0%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.6%
4.5%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fortuna Düsseldorf goals (down), columns = Ingolstadt goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.85
1. FC Nürnberg
1.76
Holstein Kiel
1.65
Arminia Bielefeld
1.41
VfL Bochum
1.41
Duisburg
1.41
Regensburg
1.41
Union Berlin
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.32
FC St. Pauli
1.26
SV Darmstadt 98
1.26
SV Sandhausen
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim
1.24
Dynamo Dresden
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.18
Erzgebirge Aue
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.15
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.53 points better than Ingolstadt in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Holstein Kiel
2.09
1. FC Nürnberg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.68
Union Berlin
1.59
Regensburg
1.56
Duisburg
1.53
Arminia Bielefeld
1.50
1. FC Heidenheim
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.38
Ingolstadt
1.38
Dynamo Dresden
1.24
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.24
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.09
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.09
VfL Bochum
1.09
FC St. Pauli
1.03
Erzgebirge Aue
1.03
SV Sandhausen
1.03
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.29 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SV Sandhausen
0.97
1. FC Nürnberg
1.15
VfL Bochum
1.18
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.26
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.29
Holstein Kiel
1.29
SV Darmstadt 98
1.32
Ingolstadt
1.32
Union Berlin
1.35
Arminia Bielefeld
1.38
FC St. Pauli
1.41
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.41
Erzgebirge Aue
1.44
Dynamo Dresden
1.53
Regensburg
1.56
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.62
Duisburg
1.65
1. FC Heidenheim
1.65
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.03 goals better than Ingolstadt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf
For 6.2 · Against 6.5 · Total 12.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 17.5 · Total 31.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ingolstadt
For 6.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 14.2 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.9
9.9
3.1
3.2
3.0
32.2
32.7
31.7
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
10.8
11.5
10.1
3.2
3.7
2.7
31.0
32.5
29.4
vs Weaker (15)
9.3
9.2
9.4
3.1
2.2
4.0
35.0
33.2
36.4
% over line
60%
73%
47%
44%
44%
44%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
40%
27%
53%
56%
56%
56%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.3
8.4
4.3
3.8
4.8
30.6
29.7
31.4
vs Stronger (37)
9.1
10.1
8.2
4.3
4.1
4.5
31.1
30.5
31.7
vs Similar (13)
10.0
10.7
9.2
4.3
3.0
5.8
29.0
27.6
30.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
56%
32%
64%
48%
80%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
56%
44%
68%
36%
52%
20%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Nürnberg
10.6
1. FC Heidenheim
10.5
SV Darmstadt 98
10.5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.4
Arminia Bielefeld
10.2
FC St. Pauli
10.2
Eintracht Braunschweig
9.9
1. FC Kaiserslautern
9.9
VfL Bochum
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Holstein Kiel
9.5
Dynamo Dresden
9.5
Erzgebirge Aue
9.4
Regensburg
9.4
Ingolstadt
9.4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9.4
SV Sandhausen
9.0
Duisburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fortuna Düsseldorf
5.2
Regensburg
5.1
Holstein Kiel
5.0
1. FC Heidenheim
4.6
Eintracht Braunschweig
4.5
SV Sandhausen
4.4
Duisburg
4.4
Erzgebirge Aue
4.4
SV Darmstadt 98
4.3
VfL Bochum
4.3
Ingolstadt
4.3
FC St. Pauli
4.2
Dynamo Dresden
4.2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
4.0
1. FC Nürnberg
3.7
Union Berlin
3.6
Arminia Bielefeld
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Sandhausen
33.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
32.2
Regensburg
31.6
Ingolstadt
30.6
1. FC Heidenheim
30.2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
30.0
Union Berlin
28.9
1. FC Kaiserslautern
28.9
Holstein Kiel
28.8
Erzgebirge Aue
28.7
VfL Bochum
28.5
Eintracht Braunschweig
28.4
SV Darmstadt 98
28.2
Duisburg
28.1
Dynamo Dresden
28.0
FC St. Pauli
25.7
Arminia Bielefeld
25.7
1. FC Nürnberg
25.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.1%
Under 9.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
71.1%
Under 3.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.7%
Under 21.5
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.52
0.64
0.55
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.33
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
0.35
0.50
0.25
0.67
0.44
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.46
0.43
0.43
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.87
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.95
1.09
1.00
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ingolstadt) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ingolstadt
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
1.00
0.87
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (17)
0.82
0.29
0.88
0.25
0.78
0.33
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.31
1.14
1.57
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ingolstadt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cédric Itten44%
Florent Muslija17%
Jordy de Wijs12%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp10%
Christian Rasmussen8%
Anouar El Azzouzi6%
Luca Raimund6%
Kenneth Schmidt5%
Elias Egouli5%
Emmanuel Iyoha4%
Sima Suso4%
Tim Oberdorf3%
Žan Celar0%
Giovanni Haag0%
Christopher Lenz0%
Matthias Zimmermann0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Satoshi Tanaka0%
Jesper Daland0%
Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Sotiris Alexandropoulos0%
Tim Breithaupt0%
Jamil Siebert0%
Julian Hettwer0%
Tim Rossmann0%
Danny Schmidt0%
Marin Ljubičić0%
Jordi Paulina0%
Kilian Sauck0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jamil Siebert67%
Kilian Sauck33%
Anouar El Azzouzi32%
Jesper Daland25%
Jordi Paulina25%
Matthias Zimmermann24%
Kenneth Schmidt24%
Tim Breithaupt24%
Elias Egouli23%
Christian Rasmussen20%
Moritz Heyer19%
Sotiris Alexandropoulos19%
Cédric Itten19%
Christopher Lenz18%
Florent Muslija17%
Tim Rossmann17%
Sima Suso16%
Jordy de Wijs12%
Luca Raimund12%
Tim Oberdorf12%
Florian Kastenmeier9%
Emmanuel Iyoha8%
Satoshi Tanaka8%
Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson7%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp3%
Žan Celar0%
Giovanni Haag0%
Julian Hettwer0%
Danny Schmidt0%
Marin Ljubičić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Shinta Karl Appelkamp17%
Florent Muslija17%
Christian Rasmussen16%
Satoshi Tanaka15%
Danny Schmidt15%
Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson14%
Cédric Itten9%
Christopher Lenz6%
Tim Breithaupt6%
Kenneth Schmidt5%
Emmanuel Iyoha4%
Anouar El Azzouzi3%
Florian Kastenmeier3%
Žan Celar0%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Giovanni Haag0%
Matthias Zimmermann0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Jesper Daland0%
Sotiris Alexandropoulos0%
Tim Oberdorf0%
Jamil Siebert0%
Julian Hettwer0%
Tim Rossmann0%
Marin Ljubičić0%
Luca Raimund0%
Sima Suso0%
Jordi Paulina0%
Elias Egouli0%
Kilian Sauck0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cédric Itten38%
Florent Muslija13%
Marin Ljubičić10%
Emmanuel Iyoha8%
Christian Rasmussen8%
Sima Suso8%
Anouar El Azzouzi6%
Jesper Daland4%
Žan Celar0%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Giovanni Haag0%
Christopher Lenz0%
Matthias Zimmermann0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Satoshi Tanaka0%
Valgeir Lunddal Fridriksson0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp0%
Sotiris Alexandropoulos0%
Tim Oberdorf0%
Tim Breithaupt0%
Kenneth Schmidt0%
Jamil Siebert0%
Julian Hettwer0%
Tim Rossmann0%
Danny Schmidt0%
Luca Raimund0%
Jordi Paulina0%
Elias Egouli0%
Kilian Sauck0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (29)
€123m
FSP (27)
€46m
1FN (28)
€40m
HK (32)
€34m
1FH (26)
€33m
1FK (26)
€28m
SD9 (28)
€24m
EB (27)
€21m
VB (24)
€19m
DD (26)
€19m
SGF (24)
€19m
AB (23)
€18m
FD (26)
€10m
DUI (26)
€9m
ING (26)
€7m
EA (18)
€2m
Fortuna Düsseldorf's squad is €3m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€10m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (10)
€46m
1FH (11)
€15m
1FN (9)
€14m
HK (12)
€12m
1FK (9)
€12m
FSP (7)
€10m
SD9 (11)
€9m
EB (8)
€7m
AB (8)
€7m
DD (8)
€6m
VB (9)
€6m
SGF (6)
€4m
DUI (12)
€4m
ING (10)
€3m
FD (8)
€3m
EA (5)
€1m
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Ingolstadt have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (6)
€26m
FSP (8)
€15m
1FN (6)
€13m
HK (5)
€7m
1FH (4)
€7m
SD9 (4)
€6m
SGF (8)
€5m
VB (4)
€5m
1FK (6)
€5m
EB (7)
€5m
DD (4)
€4m
AB (5)
€4m
FD (5)
€2m
DUI (4)
€2m
ING (4)
€1m
EA (5)
€1m
Fortuna Düsseldorf's midfield is €1m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UB (13)
€50m
FSP (12)
€21m
HK (15)
€16m
1FN (13)
€12m
1FH (11)
€12m
1FK (11)
€11m
SGF (10)
€9m
EB (12)
€9m
SD9 (13)
€8m
DD (14)
€8m
VB (11)
€8m
AB (10)
€7m
FD (13)
€5m
ING (12)
€3m
DUI (10)
€3m
EA (8)
€1m
Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is €2m more valuable than Ingolstadt's (€5m vs €3m).
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
Duisburg
Union Berlin
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Sandhausen
FC St. Pauli
1. FC Heidenheim
Dynamo Dresden
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Erzgebirge Aue
Eintracht Braunschweig
1. FC Kaiserslautern