This opponent (Regensburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
R
Regensburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.60
1.27
1.87
1.07
1.33
vs Stronger (21)
0.86
1.90
1.08
1.92
0.56
1.89
vs Similar (9)
1.89
0.89
2.00
1.67
1.83
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.5%
@ 1.71-4.9%
Under 2.5
49.5%
@ 2.13+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
6.4%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.2%
Fortuna Düsseldorf goals ↓
Regensburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
6.2%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.7%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.5%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.1%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fortuna Düsseldorf goals (down), columns = Regensburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SV Wehen
3.00
1. FC Heidenheim
2.03
Hamburger SV
2.00
SV Darmstadt 98
1.94
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.78
FC St. Pauli
1.69
SC Paderborn 07
1.61
Karlsruher SC
1.44
Hannover 96
1.33
1. FC Magdeburg
1.31
Hansa Rostock
1.31
Holstein Kiel
1.31
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.28
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.25
1. FC Nürnberg
1.19
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.03
Arminia Bielefeld
0.97
Jahn Regensburg
0.91
Regensburg
0.91
SV Sandhausen
0.86
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.87 points better than Regensburg in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SV Wehen
3.00
Hamburger SV
2.17
1. FC Heidenheim
2.08
SC Paderborn 07
1.97
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.81
Karlsruher SC
1.75
Holstein Kiel
1.64
FC St. Pauli
1.56
Hannover 96
1.44
SV Darmstadt 98
1.44
Arminia Bielefeld
1.42
1. FC Magdeburg
1.42
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.42
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.31
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.22
SV Sandhausen
1.06
Hansa Rostock
1.03
Jahn Regensburg
1.00
Regensburg
1.00
1. FC Nürnberg
0.92
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.81 goals better than Regensburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SV Wehen
0.50
SV Darmstadt 98
0.97
FC St. Pauli
1.14
1. FC Heidenheim
1.17
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.19
SC Paderborn 07
1.25
Hamburger SV
1.31
Hansa Rostock
1.33
1. FC Nürnberg
1.36
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.42
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.47
Karlsruher SC
1.47
Hannover 96
1.56
1. FC Magdeburg
1.58
Jahn Regensburg
1.71
Regensburg
1.71
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.72
Holstein Kiel
1.75
SV Sandhausen
1.83
Arminia Bielefeld
1.89
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.51 goals better than Regensburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf
For 4.5 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.4 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
R
Regensburg
For 3.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.6 · Against 14.0 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.1
11.0
3.5
3.6
3.4
23.5
22.5
24.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
10.7
10.2
11.1
3.4
3.5
3.4
23.4
22.6
24.3
vs Weaker (14)
10.3
9.7
10.9
3.6
4.2
3.2
23.8
22.2
25.3
% over line
60%
57%
64%
46%
52%
40%
76%
65%
86%
% under line
40%
43%
36%
54%
48%
60%
24%
35%
14%
This opponent (Regensburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
R
Regensburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.0
4.2
4.4
4.0
27.3
27.4
27.2
vs Stronger (35)
9.1
8.9
9.2
4.2
4.3
4.1
27.1
27.7
26.5
vs Similar (15)
8.9
9.3
8.6
4.2
5.0
3.7
27.6
26.5
28.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
40%
44%
68%
68%
68%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
58%
60%
56%
32%
32%
32%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
1. FC Heidenheim
11.2
Hamburger SV
11.1
1. FC Nürnberg
10.7
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.5
Hannover 96
10.4
SV Sandhausen
10.4
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
Eintracht Braunschweig
9.8
Holstein Kiel
9.8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9.7
1. FC Kaiserslautern
9.7
Arminia Bielefeld
9.5
Hansa Rostock
9.4
Karlsruher SC
9.4
SV Darmstadt 98
9.2
FC St. Pauli
9.2
Regensburg
9.0
1. FC Magdeburg
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
1. FC Magdeburg
4.8
SV Darmstadt 98
4.7
Eintracht Braunschweig
4.4
SV Sandhausen
4.4
Hansa Rostock
4.4
Hamburger SV
4.3
SC Paderborn 07
4.2
Regensburg
4.2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4.1
1. FC Nürnberg
4.0
Holstein Kiel
4.0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.0
Karlsruher SC
3.9
Hannover 96
3.9
FC St. Pauli
3.8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3.6
1. FC Heidenheim
3.5
Arminia Bielefeld
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
1. FC Kaiserslautern
28.3
Regensburg
27.3
Eintracht Braunschweig
27.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
26.1
1. FC Magdeburg
26.0
SV Darmstadt 98
24.8
Hansa Rostock
24.2
Hannover 96
23.5
SV Sandhausen
23.5
FC St. Pauli
23.4
Karlsruher SC
23.4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
23.3
Hamburger SV
23.3
1. FC Nürnberg
23.1
Arminia Bielefeld
22.2
SC Paderborn 07
22.1
Holstein Kiel
21.7
1. FC Heidenheim
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.5%
Under 9.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.9%
Under 3.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.7%
Under 21.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.30
0.80
0.40
0.53
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.30
0.73
0.45
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.29
1.00
0.25
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Regensburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
R
Regensburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (21)
0.48
0.67
0.42
0.67
0.56
0.67
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.44
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.87
0.60
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.96
0.73
0.73
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.43
1.25
0.25
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Regensburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
R
Regensburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.80
1.20
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (21)
0.38
1.24
0.67
1.25
0.00
1.22
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.44
1.33
1.00
1.17
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dawid Kownacki38%
Rouwen Hennings23%
Daniel Ginczek17%
Felix Klaus16%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp15%
Emmanuel Iyoha14%
Kristoffer Peterson11%
Andre Hoffmann9%
Jona Niemiec8%
Marcel Sobottka8%
Matthias Zimmermann7%
Tim Christopher Oberdorf7%
Christoph Klarer7%
Nicolas Gavory6%
Jordy de Wijs5%
Ao Tanaka5%
Michał Karbownik4%
Jorrit Hendrix0%
Adam Bodzek0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Kwadwo Baah0%
Benjamin Böckle0%
Marcel Mansfeld0%
Takashi Uchino0%
Tom Geerkens0%
Elione Fernandes Neto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordy de Wijs30%
Dawid Kownacki28%
Christoph Klarer27%
Jorrit Hendrix25%
Marcel Mansfeld25%
Marcel Sobottka24%
Andre Hoffmann22%
Rouwen Hennings19%
Michał Karbownik19%
Felix Klaus19%
Nicolas Gavory19%
Matthias Zimmermann15%
Tim Christopher Oberdorf14%
Daniel Ginczek13%
Kristoffer Peterson11%
Ao Tanaka9%
Emmanuel Iyoha7%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp3%
Adam Bodzek0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Kwadwo Baah0%
Benjamin Böckle0%
Takashi Uchino0%
Tom Geerkens0%
Jona Niemiec0%
Elione Fernandes Neto0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dawid Kownacki28%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp24%
Daniel Ginczek17%
Felix Klaus16%
Rouwen Hennings15%
Michał Karbownik15%
Nicolas Gavory12%
Jorrit Hendrix10%
Jona Niemiec8%
Matthias Zimmermann7%
Emmanuel Iyoha7%
Kristoffer Peterson7%
Ao Tanaka5%
Tim Christopher Oberdorf4%
Christoph Klarer3%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Adam Bodzek0%
Andre Hoffmann0%
Marcel Sobottka0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Kwadwo Baah0%
Benjamin Böckle0%
Marcel Mansfeld0%
Takashi Uchino0%
Tom Geerkens0%
Elione Fernandes Neto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dawid Kownacki38%
Felix Klaus25%
Kristoffer Peterson11%
Rouwen Hennings8%
Emmanuel Iyoha7%
Jordy de Wijs5%
Ao Tanaka5%
Andre Hoffmann4%
Matthias Zimmermann4%
Christoph Klarer3%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp3%
Jorrit Hendrix0%
Daniel Ginczek0%
Adam Bodzek0%
Marcel Sobottka0%
Nicolas Gavory0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Michał Karbownik0%
Kwadwo Baah0%
Benjamin Böckle0%
Tim Christopher Oberdorf0%
Marcel Mansfeld0%
Takashi Uchino0%
Tom Geerkens0%
Jona Niemiec0%
Elione Fernandes Neto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1. FC Heidenheim
Hamburger SV
SV Darmstadt 98
FC St. Pauli
SC Paderborn 07
Karlsruher SC
Hannover 96
Holstein Kiel
1. FC Magdeburg
Hansa Rostock
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1. FC Nürnberg
Arminia Bielefeld
Eintracht Braunschweig
Jahn Regensburg
SV Sandhausen
SV Wehen