This opponent (Regensburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
R
Regensburg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
2.20
0.67
1.53
0.67
2.87
vs Stronger (22)
0.68
2.32
0.69
1.54
0.67
3.44
vs Similar (8)
0.62
1.88
0.50
1.50
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
90.1%
Under 1.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.5%
@ 1.69+17.7%
Under 2.5
26.5%
@ 2.13-17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.2%
Under 3.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.8%
No
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.0%
3-1
8.1%
2-0
7.9%
1-1
7.3%
3-0
7.1%
4-1
5.4%
1-0 ✓
5.2%
2-2
5.1%
Fortuna Düsseldorf goals ↓
Regensburg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
1.8%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
5.2%
7.3%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
2
7.9%
9.0%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
7.1%
8.1%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
4
4.8%
5.4%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fortuna Düsseldorf goals (down), columns = Regensburg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
1. FC Köln
1.87
Hamburger SV
1.76
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.71
Hannover 96
1.66
SC Paderborn 07
1.66
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Elversberg
1.63
1. FC Magdeburg
1.58
Karlsruher SC
1.58
FC Saarbrücken
1.50
1. FC Nürnberg
1.50
Hertha BSC
1.34
SV Darmstadt 98
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.21
FC Schalke 04
1.18
Preußen Münster
1.16
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.02
Ulm
0.88
SSV Ulm 1846
0.88
Jahn Regensburg
0.74
Regensburg
0.74
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.98 points better than Regensburg in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 0.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamburger SV
2.39
1. FC Nürnberg
1.92
SV Elversberg
1.87
1. FC Magdeburg
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.74
Karlsruher SC
1.68
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.66
SV Darmstadt 98
1.63
SC Paderborn 07
1.61
1. FC Köln
1.53
Hertha BSC
1.47
FC Schalke 04
1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.37
Hannover 96
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.24
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.07
Ulm
1.06
SSV Ulm 1846
1.06
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Jahn Regensburg
0.68
Regensburg
0.68
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 1.06 goals better than Regensburg in terms of goals scored per game (1.74 vs 0.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Saarbrücken
1.00
Hannover 96
1.03
1. FC Köln
1.03
SV Elversberg
1.08
Preußen Münster
1.18
SC Paderborn 07
1.21
Hamburger SV
1.24
1. FC Magdeburg
1.39
Ulm
1.41
SSV Ulm 1846
1.41
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.45
Hertha BSC
1.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.50
Karlsruher SC
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98
1.61
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1.63
1. FC Nürnberg
1.66
FC Schalke 04
1.71
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.77
Jahn Regensburg
2.09
Regensburg
2.09
Fortuna Düsseldorf is 0.64 goals better than Regensburg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 2.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
1. FC Magdeburg
58%
Hamburger SV
55%
FC Schalke 04
54%
Hertha BSC
53%
FC Saarbrücken
53%
1. FC Köln
53%
SV Elversberg
52%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
52%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
SV Darmstadt 98
52%
1. FC Nürnberg
51%
Fortuna Düsseldorf
50%
Hannover 96
49%
Karlsruher SC
49%
SSV Ulm 1846
46%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig
45%
Preußen Münster
43%
Jahn Regensburg
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf
For 3.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
R
Regensburg
For 3.9 · Against 7.9 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.1 · Against 13.3 · Total 29.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.6
4.6
4.3
4.8
21.1
20.0
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
10.7
10.8
10.7
4.4
4.1
4.6
21.0
19.9
22.3
vs Weaker (11)
9.1
5.7
10.4
5.5
5.7
5.4
21.5
20.3
22.0
% over line
58%
54%
62%
70%
62%
77%
40%
33%
46%
% under line
42%
46%
38%
30%
38%
23%
60%
67%
54%
This opponent (Regensburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
R
Regensburg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.8
9.4
4.8
4.7
4.9
25.5
27.6
23.5
vs Stronger (38)
10.3
11.5
9.2
4.8
4.7
4.8
24.8
26.9
22.6
vs Similar (12)
9.4
8.8
10.0
4.9
4.7
5.2
28.0
29.7
26.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
68%
40%
76%
76%
76%
78%
88%
68%
% under line
46%
32%
60%
24%
24%
24%
22%
12%
32%
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
SC Paderborn 07
11.1
1. FC Magdeburg
11.0
1. FC Köln
11.0
Hamburger SV
11.0
Hertha BSC
11.0
SV Elversberg
10.9
1. FC Nürnberg
10.8
Jahn Regensburg
10.7
1. FC Kaiserslautern
10.7
Karlsruher SC
10.6
Hannover 96
10.5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10.4
Eintracht Braunschweig
10.3
Regensburg
10.1
SSV Ulm 1846
9.8
Ulm
9.8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
9.7
Preußen Münster
9.7
SV Darmstadt 98
9.6
FC Schalke 04
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
SSV Ulm 1846
6.3
Ulm
5.6
Preußen Münster
5.3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
5.2
1. FC Magdeburg
5.2
Hamburger SV
5.1
Jahn Regensburg
5.1
1. FC Nürnberg
5.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
5.0
FC Schalke 04
5.0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4.9
SV Darmstadt 98
4.9
1. FC Köln
4.9
Regensburg
4.8
SC Paderborn 07
4.7
Fortuna Düsseldorf
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.6
Hertha BSC
4.5
Hannover 96
4.3
Karlsruher SC
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Jahn Regensburg
26.2
Regensburg
25.5
Preußen Münster
25.5
1. FC Kaiserslautern
25.2
Hannover 96
25.1
SSV Ulm 1846
25.1
Ulm
25.1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24.2
Hamburger SV
23.4
1. FC Nürnberg
23.2
1. FC Magdeburg
23.1
Eintracht Braunschweig
23.0
SV Darmstadt 98
23.0
1. FC Köln
23.0
Hertha BSC
22.8
SC Paderborn 07
22.7
SV Elversberg
21.7
Karlsruher SC
21.4
FC Schalke 04
21.2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.6%
Under 9.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
74.0%
Under 3.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
60.7%
Under 21.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.87
0.60
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.61
0.69
0.54
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.71
2.00
1.00
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Regensburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
R
Regensburg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.97
0.27
0.67
0.33
1.27
vs Stronger (22)
0.32
0.95
0.23
0.69
0.44
1.33
vs Similar (8)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.17
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.83
0.80
1.33
1.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.00
0.77
1.38
1.30
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.29
1.00
1.00
1.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Regensburg) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
R
Regensburg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.23
0.40
0.87
0.33
1.60
vs Stronger (22)
0.36
1.36
0.46
0.85
0.22
2.11
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.88
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Düsseldorf) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Düsseldorf over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Regensburg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
73.5%
1.69
-
-
-
-
-
+17.7%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dawid Kownacki34%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson30%
Dženan Pejčinović20%
Myron Van Brederode17%
Danny Schmidt15%
Tim Rossmann11%
Matthias Zimmermann10%
Giovanni Haag8%
Felix Klaus7%
Jona Niemiec7%
Tim Christopher Oberdorf6%
Nicolas Gavory6%
Vincent Vermeij5%
Emmanuel Iyoha4%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp4%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Andre Hoffmann0%
Marcel Sobottka0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Ao Tanaka0%
Valgeir Lunddal0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Moritz-Broni Kwarteng0%
Jamil Siebert0%
Noah Mbamba0%
Joshua Quarshie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcel Sobottka45%
Jamil Siebert43%
Giovanni Haag33%
Felix Klaus33%
Andre Hoffmann31%
Ao Tanaka25%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson24%
Dawid Kownacki24%
Jordy de Wijs20%
Matthias Zimmermann19%
Tim Christopher Oberdorf18%
Valgeir Lunddal17%
Myron Van Brederode17%
Jona Niemiec17%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp15%
Noah Mbamba14%
Moritz Heyer13%
Dženan Pejčinović10%
Nicolas Gavory6%
Tim Rossmann6%
Emmanuel Iyoha4%
Danny Schmidt4%
Florian Kastenmeier3%
Vincent Vermeij0%
Moritz-Broni Kwarteng0%
Joshua Quarshie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Moritz-Broni Kwarteng38%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp22%
Marcel Sobottka18%
Myron Van Brederode17%
Tim Christopher Oberdorf12%
Dawid Kownacki10%
Jamil Siebert10%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson9%
Jona Niemiec7%
Matthias Zimmermann6%
Nicolas Gavory6%
Tim Rossmann6%
Vincent Vermeij5%
Danny Schmidt4%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Giovanni Haag0%
Emmanuel Iyoha0%
Felix Klaus0%
Andre Hoffmann0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Ao Tanaka0%
Valgeir Lunddal0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Noah Mbamba0%
Joshua Quarshie0%
Dženan Pejčinović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dawid Kownacki28%
Felix Klaus27%
Dženan Pejčinović15%
Danny Schmidt8%
Matthias Zimmermann6%
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson6%
Nicolas Gavory6%
Vincent Vermeij5%
Emmanuel Iyoha4%
Valgeir Lunddal4%
Giovanni Haag4%
Shinta Karl Appelkamp4%
Jordy de Wijs0%
Andre Hoffmann0%
Marcel Sobottka0%
Moritz Heyer0%
Ao Tanaka0%
Florian Kastenmeier0%
Moritz-Broni Kwarteng0%
Tim Christopher Oberdorf0%
Jamil Siebert0%
Tim Rossmann0%
Myron Van Brederode0%
Noah Mbamba0%
Jona Niemiec0%
Joshua Quarshie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Germany: 2. Bundesliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: 2. Bundesliga stats & trends →
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Fortuna Düsseldorf
1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
1. FC Kaiserslautern
SV Elversberg
1. FC Magdeburg
Karlsruher SC
1. FC Nürnberg
Hertha BSC
SV Darmstadt 98
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
FC Schalke 04
Preußen Münster
Eintracht Braunschweig
SSV Ulm 1846
Jahn Regensburg
FC Saarbrücken