Fortuna Sittard’s recent win over Groningen suggests a resilient home side, yet the model still sees Ajax as the clear favourite, rating a 67% chance of victory. Ajax’s away form is strong, scoring 2.09 goals per game and conceding only 1.0, while Fortuna’s home form is weaker, averaging 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded against stronger opponents. The expected total is 3.3 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, with a 10.2% probability, reflecting Ajax’s dominance. Home win probability is 13%, draw 20%, and away win 67%. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.4%, Under 7.5 at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Away +2 handicap at 95.4%, Under 6.5 at 95.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.6%, and Home under 2.5 goals at 92.7%, each with the edge percentages noted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fortuna Sittard win
13.2%
Avg Implied 17.5% · @ 5.33
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.00
1xBet
5.61
Marathonbet
5.45
10Bet
5.40
Betano
5.20
Draw
19.8%
Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.50
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.70
1xBet
4.63
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Ajax win
67.0%
Avg Implied 61.7% · @ 1.52
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fortuna Sittard
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.93
1.67
1.93
1.40
1.93
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
2.58
1.33
2.33
1.33
2.83
vs Similar (18)
1.67
1.50
1.89
1.67
1.44
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.30
2.27
1.27
1.80
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
2.17
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (24)
2.25
1.08
2.38
1.15
2.09
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.7%
@ 1.11+0.9%
Under 1.5
15.3%
@ 5.73-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Under
Unibet
6.40
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.60
Betano
5.50
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.5%
@ 1.43-1.8%
Under 2.5
36.5%
@ 2.70+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Under
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.70
Bet365
2.70
1xBet
2.61
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.4%
@ 2.13-3.1%
Under 3.5
58.6%
@ 1.71+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.77
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Both teams to score
Yes
56.4%
@ 1.52-4.6%
No
43.6%
@ 2.37+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
No
Betfair
2.55
William Hil
2.40
Unibet
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Betano
2.35
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.2%@ 8.91+5.1%
1-2
9.7%@ 7.72+3.9%
1-1
9.2%@ 8.58+4.0%
0-1
7.9%@ 9.62+3.3%
0-3
7.9%@ 11.44+3.9%
1-3
7.5%@ 10.06+3.1%
2-2
4.7%@ 12.69+1.1%
0-0
4.6%@ 18.75+2.2%
Fortuna Sittard goals ↓
Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
7.9%
10%
7.9%
4.6%
1
2.8%
9.2%
9.7%
7.5%
4.4%
2
1.7%
4.0%
4.7%
3.6%
2.1%
3
0.6%
1.3%
1.5%
1.1%
0.7%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fortuna Sittard goals (down), columns = Ajax goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Fortuna Sittard is 0.52 points worse than Ajax in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Fortuna Sittard is 0.34 goals worse than Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Fortuna Sittard is 0.71 goals worse than Ajax in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Fortuna Sittard is 11.6 percentage points worse than Ajax in terms of average possession (45% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fortuna Sittard
For 3.2 · Against 7.8 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajax
For 7.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Sittard
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
11.2
10.5
3.2
3.5
3.0
23.2
24.0
22.5
vs Stronger (20)
11.1
12.0
10.2
3.2
4.1
2.3
22.3
23.9
20.7
vs Similar (30)
10.7
10.7
10.7
3.3
3.1
3.4
23.9
24.0
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
60%
54%
40%
40%
40%
65%
72%
58%
% under line
43%
40%
46%
60%
60%
60%
35%
28%
42%
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.1
10.4
3.4
3.1
3.7
21.7
23.4
20.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
9.5
10.0
9.0
3.6
2.9
4.4
25.1
25.4
24.7
vs Weaker (35)
9.9
8.8
10.9
3.3
3.2
3.4
20.3
22.5
18.2
% over line
51%
42%
60%
44%
36%
52%
53%
67%
40%
% under line
49%
58%
40%
56%
64%
48%
47%
33%
60%
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
68.8%
@ 1.72+15.3%
Under 9.5
31.2%
@ 1.98-15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.72
Under
Unibet
1.98
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 3.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
48.3%
Under 21.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fortuna Sittard or Draw
33.0%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.47
Edge
-5.3%
13%
20%
67%
covers Fortuna Sittard + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.47
Fortuna Sittard or Ajax
80.2%
Avg Implied 79.7% · @ 1.19
Edge
+0.5%
13%
20%
67%
covers Fortuna Sittard + Ajax
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw or Ajax
86.8%
Avg Implied 82.0% · @ 1.15
Edge
+4.8%
13%
20%
67%
covers Draw + Ajax
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5
Over
61.6%
@ 1.38-5.3%
Under
38.4%
@ 2.79+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Under
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5
Over
24.8%
@ 2.88-7.4%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.37+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
1xBet
2.95
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Under
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5
Over
7.3%
@ 7.31-5.4%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.06+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Fortuna Sittard over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
@ 17.75-3.8%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
1xBet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
1xBet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Ajax over/under 0.5
Over
90.2%
@ 1.06+3.1%
Under
9.8%
@ 7.17-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Under
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.50
Ajax over/under 1.5
Over
67.3%
@ 1.42+1.7%
Under
32.7%
@ 2.71-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
Unibet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.71
Bet365
2.62
Ajax over/under 2.5
Over
40.9%
@ 2.32+0.8%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.56-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Under
Unibet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Ajax over/under 3.5
Over
20.4%
@ 4.37-0.7%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.17+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Under
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fortuna Sittard, so a minus line means Fortuna Sittard give that many goals of a start and Ajax receive them. At -1, Fortuna Sittard must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fortuna Sittard win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fortuna Sittard)
Fortuna Sittard -2
1.2%
@ 27.33-2.2%
Draw -2
3.4%
@ 13.17-3.7%
Ajax +2
95.4%
@ 1.04+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
9.50
Away
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Fortuna Sittard)
Fortuna Sittard -1
4.6%
@ 10.65-3.7%
Draw -1
8.6%
@ 6.64-4.8%
Ajax +1
86.8%
@ 1.14+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Draw
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Handicap +1 (Fortuna Sittard)
Fortuna Sittard +1
33.0%
@ 2.44-3.8%
Draw +1
22.0%
@ 3.77-1.8%
Ajax -1
45.0%
@ 2.28+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.25
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
10Bet
3.60
Away
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Unibet
2.10
Handicap +2 (Fortuna Sittard)
Fortuna Sittard +2
55.0%
@ 1.56-2.7%
Draw +2
20.1%
@ 4.49-0.0%
Ajax -2
24.9%
@ 4.07+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.64
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Away
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
3.94
Unibet
3.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fortuna Sittard
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.87
0.53
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.17
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.67
0.89
0.44
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.43
1.40
0.47
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
1.33
0.38
1.54
0.46
1.09
0.27
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.8%
@ 1.22-3.4%
Under 0.5
27.2%
@ 3.88+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Under
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.90
1xBet
3.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.4%
@ 2.09-8.3%
Under 1.5
63.6%
@ 1.69+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Unibet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 4.49-5.4%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.17+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Betano
4.55
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Under
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.9%
@ 2.30-2.4%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.56+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.14
Under
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.3%
@ 7.68-3.7%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.05+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
Unibet
8.00
Betano
7.20
1xBet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
@ 12.50-6.4%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Ajax over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.6%
@ 1.49-2.9%
Under
40.4%
@ 2.48+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.52
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.36
Ajax over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.7%
@ 3.29-8.4%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.29+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
3.10
Under
Unibet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Ajax over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.4%
@ 8.33-5.7%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Betano
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fortuna Sittard
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.80
1.40
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.42
0.50
1.67
0.83
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.83
1.00
1.22
0.44
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
0.92
0.71
0.85
0.69
1.00
0.73
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.6%
@ 1.12-1.3%
Under 0.5
18.4%
@ 5.44+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Under
Unibet
5.75
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.0%
@ 1.66-4.3%
Under 1.5
48.0%
@ 2.13+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.70
10Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Under
Unibet
2.25
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
Bet365
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.4%
@ 3.02-7.4%
Under 2.5
76.6%
@ 1.34+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.98
Under
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.3%
@ 1.90-2.5%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.81+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.88
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.74
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.6%
@ 5.65-2.8%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.11+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.30
1xBet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 11.00-6.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Ajax over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.7%
@ 1.34-5.0%
Under
35.3%
@ 3.08+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Under
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.00
Ajax over/under 1.5 2H
Over
30.2%
@ 2.52-6.5%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.47+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.49
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Ajax over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.8%
@ 5.80-8.1%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.10+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.30
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.07
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
Under 7.5
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Away +2 handicap
95.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+5.9%
Under 6.5
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Unibet
1.02
-
+2.4%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.7%
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.04
+5.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+8.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
90.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.04
+3.1%
Under 5.5
88.6%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
+3.2%
Under 5.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
+4.8%
Away +1 handicap
86.8%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.11
+8.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+2.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+5.4%
Over 1.5
84.7%
1.11
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+0.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
-1.3%
Under 25.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.3%
1.29
Unibet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
+8.4%
Home or Away
80.2%
1.19
1xBet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+0.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
79.6%
1.17
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+0.7%
Over 8.5 corners
79.1%
1.43
Unibet
1.43
-
-
-
-
+15.0%
Under 4.5
76.7%
1.27
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+3.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.34
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
+7.4%
Home under 1.5 goals
75.2%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
+7.4%
Under 4.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.8%
1.22
Betano
1.27
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
-3.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fortuna Sittard
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lequincio Zeefuik50%
Ole Romeny33%
Shiloh 't Zand33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Édouard Michut25%
Philip Brittijn25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Édouard Michut25%
Justin Hubner25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mohamed Ihattaren0%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Ivo Pinto25%
Jasper Dahlhaus25%
Édouard Michut25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ole Romeny33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Édouard Michut0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davy Klaassen57%
Tolu Arokodare50%
Julian Brandt43%
Mika Godts33%
Kasper Dolberg25%
Owen Wijndal25%
Marcos Leonardo25%
Anton Gaaei25%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Baas17%
Steven Berghuis14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Caio Henrique0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Youri Regeer0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucas Rosa40%
Youri Regeer29%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Aaron Bouwman25%
Davy Klaassen14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Marcos Leonardo12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Steven Berghuis0%
Maarten Paes0%
Tolu Arokodare0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Baas0%
Oscar Gloukh0%
Mika Godts0%
Dies Janse0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mika Godts67%
Steven Berghuis43%
Tolu Arokodare33%
Caio Henrique29%
Lucas Rosa20%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Regeer14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Marcos Leonardo0%
Youri Baas0%
Anton Gaaei0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika Godts67%
Kasper Dolberg50%
Steven Berghuis43%
Marcos Leonardo38%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Tolu Arokodare17%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Regeer0%
Youri Baas0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Abdellah Ouazane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Fortuna Sittard's squad is €157m less valuable than Ajax's (€17m vs €173m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Fortuna Sittard's attack is €89m less valuable than Ajax's (€6m vs €95m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Fortuna Sittard's midfield is €11m less valuable than Ajax's (€4m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Fortuna Sittard's defence is €57m less valuable than Ajax's (€7m vs €63m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
GO Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur