Fortuna Sittard hosts AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands Eredivisie, with AZ Alkmaar expected to come out on top. The recent form of the teams indicates that AZ Alkmaar is on a 2-game winning run, while Fortuna Sittard is coming off a win. However, AZ Alkmaar's away form suggests they struggle to score against weaker opponents, averaging 1.4 goals per game, and concede 1.5 goals per game.
The model predicts an away win with a 57% probability, a draw at 23%, and a home win at 19%. The expected total goals is 3.1, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 10.9%. Fortuna Sittard's home form shows they score an average of 1.67 goals and concede 2 goals per game against stronger opponents. AZ Alkmaar's away form shows they score 1.4 goals and concede 1.5 goals per game against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 at 82.5%, Draw or Away at 76.9%, and Home or Away at 75.9%. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 19%, 23%, and 57% respectively.
Results analysis
Fortuna Sittard’s recent run of five matches ended in a defeat, while AZ Alkmaar continued a three-game winning streak. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct as AZ edged Fortuna 0-2. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 60 %. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.4 %, Under 6.5 at 95.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.2 %, and Away +2 handicap at 90.3 %. All picks settled as hit, confirming the model’s strong performance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fortuna Sittard win✗ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.78
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.10
Pinnacle
5.01
Dafabet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.20
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.50
Betano
4.40
Pinnacle
4.32
10Bet
4.30
1xBet
4.27
AZ Alkmaar win✓ Hit
60.0%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.62
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.65
888Sport
1.62
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fortuna Sittard
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.90
1.73
1.93
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
2.64
1.60
2.40
1.33
2.83
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.47
1.80
1.70
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AZ Alkmaar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.13
2.50
0.94
1.17
1.42
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
2.22
1.22
2.75
1.00
1.80
1.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.90
1.05
2.43
0.93
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.1%
@ 1.13+0.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
@ 5.51-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Pinnacle
5.91
BetVictor
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.8%
@ 1.47-3.0%
Under 2.5
39.2%
@ 2.59+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Bet365
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.70
Superbet
2.65
BetVictor
2.63
Betano
2.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.5%
@ 2.19-4.7%
Under 3.5
61.5%
@ 1.66+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.22
1xBet
2.21
10Bet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
SBO
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.2%
@ 1.51-3.5%
No
41.8%
@ 2.42+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
No
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
Superbet
2.42
888Sport
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%@ 8.14+4.9%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.63+4.0%
0-2 ✓
9.4%@ 9.50+4.6%
0-1
8.0%@ 9.66+3.4%
1-3
6.9%@ 10.61+2.6%
0-3
6.5%@ 12.85+3.0%
0-0
5.3%@ 17.84+2.7%
2-2
5.3%@ 11.75+1.4%
Fortuna Sittard goals ↓
AZ Alkmaar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
8.0%
9.4%
6.5%
3.4%
1
3.6%
10%
9.9%
6.9%
3.6%
2
2.4%
5.0%
5.3%
3.7%
1.9%
3
0.9%
1.8%
1.9%
1.3%
0.7%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fortuna Sittard goals (down), columns = AZ Alkmaar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Fortuna Sittard is 0.38 points worse than AZ Alkmaar in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Fortuna Sittard is 0.26 goals worse than AZ Alkmaar in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Fortuna Sittard is 0.35 goals worse than AZ Alkmaar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Fortuna Sittard is 8.4 percentage points worse than AZ Alkmaar in terms of average possession (45% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fortuna Sittard
For 4.0 · Against 6.6 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AZ Alkmaar
For 6.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Sittard
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.9
10.5
3.3
3.5
3.1
23.7
24.4
23.0
vs Stronger (20)
10.8
11.6
10.2
3.4
4.3
2.5
22.6
24.3
21.2
vs Similar (30)
10.6
10.6
10.7
3.3
3.1
3.6
24.4
24.4
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
56%
56%
42%
40%
44%
70%
76%
64%
% under line
44%
44%
44%
58%
60%
56%
30%
24%
36%
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AZ Alkmaar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.9
10.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
22.8
22.5
23.1
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
15.0
19.0
11.0
vs Similar (14)
9.4
9.4
9.4
4.5
5.0
4.0
24.9
24.3
25.6
vs Weaker (34)
10.9
11.4
10.2
3.7
3.6
3.8
22.3
22.0
22.7
% over line
60%
63%
57%
46%
48%
43%
58%
56%
61%
% under line
40%
37%
43%
54%
52%
57%
42%
44%
39%
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.2
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Sparta Rotterdam
10.8
Fortuna Sittard
10.7
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Groningen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.8
Ajax
9.8
Utrecht
9.7
Excelsior
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Cambuur
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
4.0
Feyenoord
3.9
Utrecht
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.7
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Twente
3.6
Groningen
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
GO Ahead Eagles
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
27.0
Cambuur
26.5
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.7
Utrecht
23.0
PEC Zwolle
22.9
AZ Alkmaar
22.8
Feyenoord
22.7
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
22.1
Excelsior
21.8
Groningen
20.9
Twente
20.4
Heerenveen
20.4
Sparta Rotterdam
20.4
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.6%
@ 1.61+7.3%
Under 9.5
35.4%
@ 2.17-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.60
Under
Betfair
2.38
Marathonbet
2.22
Unibet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.2%
@ 1.95-2.1%
Under 3.5
54.8%
@ 1.75+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Unibet
1.91
Under
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.76
Superbet
1.71
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
57.9%
Under 21.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fortuna Sittard or Draw✗ Miss
47.2%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.25
Edge
+5.3%
18%
22%
60%
covers Fortuna Sittard + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.30
William Hil
2.30
888Sport
2.30
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Fortuna Sittard or AZ Alkmaar✓ Hit
75.9%
Avg Implied 78.0% · @ 1.21
Edge
-2.1%
18%
22%
60%
covers Fortuna Sittard + AZ Alkmaar
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Draw or AZ Alkmaar✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied 80.1% · @ 1.18
Edge
-3.2%
18%
22%
60%
covers Draw + AZ Alkmaar
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
70.7%
@ 1.35+2.1%
Under
29.3%
@ 2.96-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.09
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.8%
@ 2.75+0.9%
Under
65.2%
@ 1.41-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Unibet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.78
Bet365
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.7%
@ 6.59-1.4%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.08+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
7.00
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.70
888Sport
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Fortuna Sittard over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 17.50-1.8%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.6%
@ 1.08-0.8%
Under
14.4%
@ 6.83+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Under
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.70
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.6%
@ 1.48-5.4%
Under
42.4%
@ 2.52+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.6%
@ 2.53-6.2%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.48+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
AZ Alkmaar over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 4.86-6.0%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.15+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Under
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fortuna Sittard, so a minus line means Fortuna Sittard give that many goals of a start and AZ Alkmaar receive them. At -1, Fortuna Sittard must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fortuna Sittard win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fortuna Sittard)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard -2
3.1%
@ 23.50-0.8%
Draw -2
6.6%
@ 12.50-0.8%
AZ Alkmaar +2
90.3%
@ 1.04+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
20.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Fortuna Sittard)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard -1
9.7%
@ 9.90+0.6%
Draw -1
13.4%
@ 6.72-0.0%
AZ Alkmaar +1
76.9%
@ 1.16-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.45
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Away
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Handicap +1 (Fortuna Sittard)Actual: AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard +1
47.2%
@ 2.23+7.2%
Draw +1
21.6%
@ 3.75-2.2%
AZ Alkmaar -1
31.2%
@ 2.46-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Superbet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Unibet
2.48
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.42
Handicap +2 (Fortuna Sittard)Actual: Draw
Fortuna Sittard +2
68.8%
@ 1.47+7.8%
Draw +2
16.4%
@ 4.69-2.8%
AZ Alkmaar -2
14.9%
@ 4.50-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Draw
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fortuna Sittard
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.87
0.60
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.27
1.00
0.80
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.68
0.80
0.50
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AZ Alkmaar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
1.06
0.17
0.33
0.58
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.22
1.00
0.00
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.35
1.07
0.21
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
77% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
71.6%
@ 1.23-3.6%
Under 0.5
28.4%
@ 3.74+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
William Hil
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.7%
@ 2.15-6.9%
Under 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.66+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
Betano
2.27
SBO
2.23
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.13
Under
Superbet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.8%
@ 4.60-7.5%
Under 2.5
87.2%
@ 1.17+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
4.80
Betano
4.75
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Under
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.4%
@ 2.28+1.6%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.58-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.32
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Under
1xBet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 7.32-1.9%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.06+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 26.00-98.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.2%
@ 1.53-13.7%
Under
52.8%
@ 2.39+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.54
10Bet
2.50
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.36
Betano
2.30
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 3.51-11.9%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.26+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.75
Betano
3.65
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Under
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.1%
@ 9.22-7.0%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
8.80
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fortuna Sittard
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.87
1.33
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.36
0.60
1.60
0.83
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.79
1.00
1.20
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (AZ Alkmaar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AZ Alkmaar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.80
1.44
0.78
0.83
0.83
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.00
1.75
1.00
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.70
1.36
0.71
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.4%
Under 0.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.9%
Under 1.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.9%
Under 2.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AZ Alkmaar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.3%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.9%
1.09
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
888Sport
1.10
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.17
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
86.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.15
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
85.6%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.1%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
10Bet
1.14
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.7%
1.26
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
76.9%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
76.9%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.9%
1.21
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.7%
1.35
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.37
Unibet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.30
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.5%
1.33
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.30
-
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.6%
1.23
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
-3.6%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
70.7%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+2.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fortuna Sittard
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lequincio Zeefuik50%
Ole Romeny33%
Shiloh 't Zand33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Édouard Michut25%
Philip Brittijn25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Édouard Michut25%
Justin Hubner25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mohamed Ihattaren0%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Ivo Pinto25%
Jasper Dahlhaus25%
Édouard Michut25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ole Romeny33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Édouard Michut0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
AZ Alkmaar
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ro-Zangelo Daal50%
Calvin Stengs25%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Weslley Patati25%
Lewis Schouten25%
Dave Kwakman25%
Mexx Meerdink25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Weslley Patati25%
Mateo Chávez25%
Ayoub Oufkir25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Dave Kwakman0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Calvin Stengs50%
Kees Smit50%
Mateo Chávez50%
Dave Kwakman25%
Jari De Busser0%
Peer Koopmeiners0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Weslley Patati0%
Wouter Goes0%
Ro-Zangelo Daal0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Mexx Meerdink0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Weslley Patati50%
Dave Kwakman50%
Mexx Meerdink50%
Peer Koopmeiners25%
Ro-Zangelo Daal25%
Jari De Busser0%
Calvin Stengs0%
Seiya Maikuma0%
Wouter Goes0%
Lewis Schouten0%
Elijah Dijkstra0%
Kees Smit0%
Mateo Chávez0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Fortuna Sittard's squad is €119m less valuable than AZ Alkmaar's (€17m vs €136m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Fortuna Sittard's attack is €55m less valuable than AZ Alkmaar's (€6m vs €61m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Fortuna Sittard's midfield is €17m less valuable than AZ Alkmaar's (€4m vs €21m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Fortuna Sittard's defence is €47m less valuable than AZ Alkmaar's (€7m vs €54m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur