Fortuna Sittard is expected to edge out Cambuur in a closely contested Netherlands: Eredivisie match. The home side's recent form note suggests they're coming off a draw against PSV Eindhoven, which could bring some momentum into this encounter. The numbers indicate a 45% chance of Fortuna Sittard winning at home, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of Cambuur securing the three points.
The expected total number of goals is 3.1, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring 11.8% of the time. Fortuna Sittard has averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.62 conceded at home, while Cambuur has averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.75 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selections include an Over 1.5 goals model selection with an 82.6% probability, indicating a strong likelihood of more than one goal being scored. The model also suggests selecting Fortuna Sittard to win with a 45% probability, Cambuur to win with a 29% probability, and the draw with a 26% probability.
Results analysis
Fortuna Sittard's win extends their run, having come off a win and now having 2 consecutive victories. The final score was 3-1, resulting in a home win for Fortuna Sittard. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given a pre-match probability of 45%. The model's call was spot on, as Fortuna Sittard was the favourite. The model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 82.6%, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 23%.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Fortuna Sittard winā Hit
44.9%
Avg Implied 56.8% · @ 1.65
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.71
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Drawā Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.17
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.41
1xBet
4.37
Marathonbet
4.25
Dafabet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Cambuur winā Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.55
Edge
+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.75
Pinnacle
4.71
1xBet
4.62
Betfair
4.60
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Fortuna Sittard
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.87
1.60
1.87
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
2.64
1.60
2.40
1.33
2.83
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.42
1.60
1.60
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambuur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.43
1.87
1.13
1.87
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.87
1.43
1.87
1.13
1.87
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.6%
@ 1.14+0.0%
Under 1.5
17.4%
@ 5.38-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Pinnacle
5.71
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.9%
@ 1.48-3.5%
Under 2.5
40.1%
@ 2.55+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.47
Under
Unibet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.5%
@ 2.23-4.9%
Under 3.5
62.5%
@ 1.64+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.30
SBO
2.29
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.4%
@ 1.51+1.0%
No
37.6%
@ 2.41-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
888Sport
1.53
10Bet
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.48
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 7.87+6.0%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.75+3.4%
1-2
7.3%@ 13.27+3.9%
2-0
6.7%@ 9.53+2.0%
1-0
6.7%@ 9.60+2.0%
2-2
6.3%@ 11.70+2.5%
0-0
5.6%@ 16.38+2.8%
3-1 ā
5.3%@ 10.92+1.2%
Fortuna Sittard goals ↓
Cambuur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.1%
4.2%
1.9%
0.7%
1
6.7%
12%
7.3%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.7%
9.2%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.9%
5.3%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.7%
2.3%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fortuna Sittard goals (down), columns = Cambuur goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Fortuna Sittard is 0.11 points better than Cambuur in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.03).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Fortuna Sittard is 0.24 goals better than Cambuur in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.20).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Fortuna Sittard is 0.24 goals better than Cambuur in terms of goals conceded per game (1.85 vs 2.10).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fortuna Sittard
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.80
0.53
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.27
1.00
0.80
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.63
0.70
0.40
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambuur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.53
0.67
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.67
0.70
0.53
0.67
0.80
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fortuna Sittard
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.80
1.33
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.36
0.60
1.60
0.83
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.79
0.90
1.20
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cambuur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.73
1.33
0.47
1.07
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.20
0.73
1.33
0.47
1.07
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 1.5
82.6%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
10Bet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Bet365
1.14
+0.0%
ā Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.5%
1.32
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Betfair
1.29
Unibet
1.27
+2.0%
ā Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.4%
1.43
Unibet
1.43
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
Fortuna Sittard
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lequincio Zeefuik50%
Ole Romeny33%
Shiloh 't Zand33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Ćdouard Michut25%
Philip Brittijn25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ćdouard Michut25%
Justin Hubner25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mohamed Ihattaren0%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Ivo Pinto25%
Jasper Dahlhaus25%
Ćdouard Michut25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ole Romeny33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Ćdouard Michut0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Cambuur
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafik El Arguioui50%
Ilyes Hamache25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaƫl Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicky Souren50%
Lucas Jetten25%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaƫl Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Binder33%
Nicky Souren25%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaƫl Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafik El Arguioui75%
Sami Bouhoudane25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaƫl Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Fortuna Sittard's squad is €4m more valuable than Cambuur's (€17m vs €12m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Fortuna Sittard's attack is €3m more valuable than Cambuur's (€6m vs €3m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Fortuna Sittard's midfield is €3m more valuable than Cambuur's (€4m vs €1m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Fortuna Sittard and Cambuur have a similar defence value (both €7m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →