This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.07
1.27
2.13
1.93
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.56
0.80
2.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.81
2.29
1.50
2.20
2.09
2.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.1%
Under 1.5
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.2%
@ 1.60+12.1%
Under 2.5
28.8%
@ 2.31-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.3%
No
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.3%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.6%
2-0
5.0%
3-2
4.7%
1-0
4.2%
Fortuna Sittard goals ↓
Willem II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
3.4%
3.6%
2.0%
0.9%
1
4.2%
9.3%
7.2%
4.1%
1.7%
2
5.0%
8.4%
7.1%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.3%
5.6%
4.7%
2.7%
1.1%
4
1.6%
2.8%
2.4%
1.3%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fortuna Sittard goals (down), columns = Willem II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AZ Alkmaar
2.24
Ajax
2.24
Feyenoord
2.00
PSV Eindhoven
1.88
Willem II
1.69
Utrecht
1.64
Vitesse
1.58
Heracles
1.38
Groningen
1.35
Sparta Rotterdam
1.27
Heerenveen
1.27
Emmen
1.23
VVV Venlo
1.08
Twente
1.04
PEC Zwolle
1.00
Fortuna Sittard
1.00
Den Haag
0.73
Waalwijk
0.58
Fortuna Sittard is 0.69 points worse than Willem II in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
2.72
AZ Alkmaar
2.16
PSV Eindhoven
2.08
Utrecht
2.00
Feyenoord
2.00
Vitesse
1.73
Sparta Rotterdam
1.58
Heerenveen
1.58
Heracles
1.54
Willem II
1.42
PEC Zwolle
1.42
Twente
1.31
Emmen
1.23
Fortuna Sittard
1.12
Groningen
1.04
Waalwijk
1.04
Den Haag
0.96
VVV Venlo
0.92
Fortuna Sittard is 0.31 goals worse than Willem II in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AZ Alkmaar
0.68
Ajax
0.92
Groningen
1.00
PSV Eindhoven
1.08
Heracles
1.31
Willem II
1.31
Vitesse
1.35
Utrecht
1.36
Feyenoord
1.40
Heerenveen
1.58
Emmen
1.73
Sparta Rotterdam
1.73
Twente
1.77
VVV Venlo
1.96
Fortuna Sittard
2.00
Den Haag
2.08
PEC Zwolle
2.12
Waalwijk
2.31
Fortuna Sittard is 0.69 goals worse than Willem II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fortuna Sittard
For 3.8 · Against 8.6 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 12.0 · Total 20.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Willem II
For 4.3 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 13.6 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fortuna Sittard
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (36)
11.6
12.0
11.1
3.6
3.7
3.6
23.4
23.5
23.3
vs Stronger (11)
12.6
12.0
13.2
2.6
3.2
2.2
22.4
24.2
20.8
vs Similar (25)
11.1
12.0
10.1
4.0
3.8
4.2
23.8
23.2
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
69%
89%
50%
53%
56%
50%
64%
67%
61%
% under line
31%
11%
50%
47%
44%
50%
36%
33%
39%
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.5
3.3
3.7
3.0
23.3
22.0
24.4
vs Stronger (14)
8.9
9.5
8.2
3.2
3.8
2.5
21.5
22.4
20.3
vs Similar (36)
10.1
10.3
9.8
3.4
3.7
3.1
24.0
21.9
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
50%
46%
48%
58%
38%
62%
62%
62%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
52%
42%
62%
38%
38%
38%
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sparta Rotterdam
11.7
Den Haag
11.6
Fortuna Sittard
11.6
AZ Alkmaar
11.3
Ajax
10.9
Heracles
10.8
Feyenoord
10.8
PSV Eindhoven
10.7
PEC Zwolle
10.7
Vitesse
10.7
Utrecht
10.5
Emmen
10.2
VVV Venlo
10.1
Waalwijk
10.0
Willem II
9.7
Twente
9.7
Heerenveen
9.4
Groningen
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Waalwijk
4.5
Twente
4.0
Vitesse
3.6
Fortuna Sittard
3.6
PEC Zwolle
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Willem II
3.3
Heracles
3.3
AZ Alkmaar
3.2
Emmen
3.2
Ajax
3.2
VVV Venlo
3.1
Utrecht
3.0
Sparta Rotterdam
3.0
Den Haag
2.9
Heerenveen
2.7
Feyenoord
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Twente
25.7
Sparta Rotterdam
25.2
Emmen
23.9
Heracles
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Willem II
23.3
Heerenveen
23.3
Vitesse
23.3
VVV Venlo
22.8
PEC Zwolle
22.8
Groningen
22.4
Utrecht
22.4
Den Haag
21.9
PSV Eindhoven
21.8
Ajax
21.8
AZ Alkmaar
21.4
Feyenoord
21.1
Waalwijk
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.3%
Under 9.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.6%
Under 3.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
57.0%
Under 21.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fortuna Sittard
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.93
0.27
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.67
1.08
0.17
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.73
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.78
0.60
0.80
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.95
0.80
1.10
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fortuna Sittard
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.70
0.73
1.07
0.60
2.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
2.33
0.00
2.33
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (21)
0.86
1.43
0.92
0.75
0.78
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Willem II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Willem II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.17
0.53
1.13
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.20
1.20
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (21)
1.00
1.33
0.70
1.10
1.27
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Fortuna Sittard) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fortuna Sittard over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Willem II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
71.2%
1.60
-
-
-
-
-
+12.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fortuna Sittard · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lequincio Zeefuik50%
Ole Romeny33%
Shiloh 't Zand33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Édouard Michut25%
Philip Brittijn25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Édouard Michut25%
Justin Hubner25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mohamed Ihattaren0%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Ivo Pinto25%
Jasper Dahlhaus25%
Édouard Michut25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Ole Romeny0%
Anthony Descotte0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ole Romeny33%
Mohamed Ihattaren25%
Anthony Descotte25%
Lequincio Zeefuik25%
Ivo Pinto0%
Mattijs Branderhorst0%
Yassin Oukili0%
Jasper Dahlhaus0%
Édouard Michut0%
Syb Van Ottele0%
Justin Hubner0%
Nick de Groot0%
Philip Brittijn0%
Siebe Wylin0%
Shiloh 't Zand0%
Moussa Gbemou0%
Willem II · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Devin Haen67%
Uriel van Aalst33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Nathan Tjoe-A-On0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nathan Tjoe-A-On67%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Devin Haen0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Jaden Slory0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Tjoe-A-On33%
Devin Haen33%
Jaden Slory33%
Justin Hoogma0%
Alessandro Ciranni0%
Finn Stam0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Kasper Boogaard0%
Eser Gürbüz0%
Per van Loon0%
Uriel van Aalst0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
WI (24)
€13m
HER (28)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
Fortuna Sittard's squad is €4m more valuable than Willem II's (€17m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
Fortuna Sittard's attack is €2m more valuable than Willem II's (€6m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EMM (7)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
Fortuna Sittard and Willem II have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
WI (12)
€5m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
Fortuna Sittard's defence is €2m more valuable than Willem II's (€7m vs €5m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht
Vitesse
Heracles
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
Emmen
VVV Venlo
Twente
PEC Zwolle
Waalwijk