Fram Reykjavik and KR Reykjavik are set to clash in the Icelandic Úrvalsdeild, with both teams unbeaten in their last 5 matches. Fram Reykjavik has been in good form at home, scoring an average of 1.78 goals and conceding just 0.56 per match against similar opponents. KR Reykjavik, meanwhile, has been solid on the road, scoring 1.86 goals and conceding 2.43 against similar opponents.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.3%. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a high probability of 85.5%. Fram Reykjavik is the favourite to win, with a 54% chance of victory, followed by a 23% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of KR Reykjavik winning. The model's pick is a Home win, with Fram Reykjavik's home win percentage at 54%, the draw percentage at 23%, and KR Reykjavik's away win percentage at 23%.
Results analysis
The away team, KR Reykjavik, pulled off a stunning upset, winning 2-5 at Fram Reykjavik. This result extends KR Reykjavik's unbeaten run to 6 matches, with their last 5 games reading WDWWD. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, with KR Reykjavik's probability of winning standing at 23% pre-match. Meanwhile, the model's call for a Home win had a 54% probability. The model's selection, Home win, was wrong. The model's suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 85.5% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fram Reykjavik win✗ Miss
54.0%
Avg Implied 35.0% · @ 2.59
Edge
+18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.74
1xBet
2.68
Marathonbet
2.67
Superbet
2.67
Dafabet
2.65
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.14
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.43
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Dafabet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
KR Reykjavik win✓ Hit
22.9%
Avg Implied 43.0% · @ 2.11
Edge
-20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.17
Dafabet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fram Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.43
2.36
1.14
1.50
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
1.75
1.88
2.00
1.75
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.76
1.33
2.11
1.00
1.50
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
6.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.90
2.80
1.87
1.80
1.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
3.67
0.00
7.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
2.48
1.70
3.00
1.50
1.92
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
@ 1.04-5.6%
Under 1.5
14.5%
@ 10.60+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Under
888Sport
13.00
Betfair
12.00
1xBet
11.00
Bet365
9.00
Betano
8.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.8%
@ 1.14-15.8%
Under 2.5
35.2%
@ 4.71+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.27
888Sport
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.8%
@ 1.40-22.9%
Under 3.5
57.2%
@ 2.67+22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
888Sport
2.80
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.0%
@ 1.17-14.8%
No
36.0%
@ 4.35+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.18
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.17
No
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.65
William Hil
4.50
888Sport
4.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%@ 12.05+6.5%
2-1
9.6%@ 12.47+5.9%
2-0
7.5%@ 27.77+5.8%
3-1
6.6%@ 16.95+3.8%
1-0
6.3%@ 28.86+4.7%
2-2
6.2%@ 9.69+1.4%
1-2
6.1%@ 11.09+1.8%
3-0
5.1%@ 38.21+3.9%
Fram Reykjavik goals ↓
KR Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
3.6%
3.0%
1.3%
0.4%
1
6.3%
10%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
2
7.5%
9.6%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
3
5.1%
6.6%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.6%
3.4%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fram Reykjavik goals (down), columns = KR Reykjavik goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KR Reykjavik
2.14
Fram Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.71
Stjarnan
1.71
FH hafnarfjordur
1.62
IA Akranes
1.50
Keflavik
1.44
Thor Akureyri
1.25
Breidablik
1.00
KA Akureyri
0.88
Valur Reykjavik
0.71
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.25
Fram Reykjavik is 0.14 points worse than KR Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.57
Fram Reykjavik
2.56
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.43
IA Akranes
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
1.86
KA Akureyri
1.75
Stjarnan
1.71
Keflavik
1.67
Breidablik
1.25
FH hafnarfjordur
1.12
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
Thor Akureyri
0.88
Fram Reykjavik is 1.02 goals worse than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.56 vs 3.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FH hafnarfjordur
0.88
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.43
Keflavik
1.44
KR Reykjavik
1.71
Breidablik
1.75
Fram Reykjavik
1.78
Thor Akureyri
1.88
IA Akranes
1.88
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.12
KA Akureyri
2.38
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Stjarnan
2.43
Fram Reykjavik is 0.06 goals worse than KR Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fram Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.00
0.64
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.57
0.78
0.56
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
1.00
0.87
1.13
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.11
0.74
1.07
0.64
1.15
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fram Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.77
1.36
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.88
1.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.76
1.33
0.44
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KR Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.03
1.80
1.00
0.67
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.37
0.96
1.93
0.86
0.77
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
-5.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
IA (19)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
Fram Reykjavik and KR Reykjavik have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
TA (7)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Fram Reykjavik and KR Reykjavik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
Fram Reykjavik and KR Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
IA (10)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
Fram Reykjavik and KR Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →