Fram Reykjavik’s recent draw against KA Akureyri and Vikingur Reykjavik’s draw with KR Reykjavik set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.6 goals. The most probable total is three, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favour of Vikingur, with a 9.3% chance. Vikingur’s away form is strong, scoring 2.43 and conceding only one goal against weaker opposition, while Fram’s home numbers are modest, 0.5 scored and 2.0 conceded against stronger teams. The model favours an away win, with a 57% probability, and a draw and home win each at 21%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 88.6% and Over 2.5 goals at 70.4%. The predicted outcome is an away victory, matching the actual 2-3 result.
Results analysis
The latest Icelandic derby saw Vikingur Reykjavik extend their recent winning streak, as the model’s favourite - an away win - came to fruition with a 2-3 triumph. The Pythia prediction was spot on, correctly calling the outcome with a 57% probability. The model also selected Over 1.5 goals at 88.6% confidence and Over 2.5 at 70.4%, both of which were hit as the match produced three goals. Fram Reykjavik’s home form had been shaky, while Vikingur’s away form had been strong, a contrast that the model captured accurately. The final score of 2-3 matched the most likely 1-2 outcome, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fram Reykjavik win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fram Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.30
2.13
2.00
1.07
2.60
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.33
0.50
2.00
1.50
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.65
2.30
2.33
2.00
0.91
2.64
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.03
2.88
1.06
2.14
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
2.33
1.25
2.50
1.67
2.17
0.83
vs Weaker (16)
2.94
0.88
3.33
0.78
2.43
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.4%
Under 2.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.6%
No
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.3%
1-1
9.0%
1-3
7.0%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
2-1
5.6%
0-1
5.2%
0-3
5.2%
Fram Reykjavik goals ↓
Vikingur Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
5.2%
6.8%
5.2%
2.9%
1
2.8%
9.0%
9.3%
7.0%
4.0%
2
2.4%
5.6%
6.3%
4.8%
2.7%
3
1.1%
2.5%
2.9%
2.2%
1.2%
4
0.4%
0.9%
1.0%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fram Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Vikingur Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Valur Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.52
Breidablik
1.52
FH hafnarfjordur
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.37
Fylkir
1.07
HK Kopavogur
1.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.93
Keflavik
0.59
Fram Reykjavik is 1.44 points worse than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.81
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Stjarnan
2.04
Breidablik
1.93
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Fylkir
1.59
KA Akureyri
1.56
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.41
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.15
Keflavik
1.00
Fram Reykjavik is 1.33 goals worse than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 2.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stjarnan
1.07
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
KA Akureyri
1.67
KR Reykjavik
1.78
Breidablik
1.81
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Keflavik
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.04
Fylkir
2.04
Fram Reykjavik
2.07
Fram Reykjavik is 0.96 goals worse than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fram Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.10
0.93
0.93
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.67
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.96
1.00
0.92
0.45
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.40
1.38
0.38
1.21
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.42
0.83
0.67
1.17
0.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
0.38
1.89
0.22
1.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fram Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.20
1.20
1.07
0.60
1.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.91
1.35
1.33
1.08
0.45
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.63
1.50
0.69
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.83
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.50
1.44
0.56
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Fram Reykjavik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fram Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Vikingur Reykjavik · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ari Sigurpálsson38%
Gunnar Vatnhamar25%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson20%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson14%
Nikolaj Hansen14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Davíð Örn Atlason12%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Erlingur Agnarsson0%
Oliver Ekroth0%
Aron Elís Þrándarson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Tarik Ibrahimagić0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Gísli Thórdarson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikolaj Hansen57%
Davíð Örn Atlason38%
Tarik Ibrahimagić38%
Oliver Ekroth29%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson20%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson17%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson14%
Aron Elís Þrándarson14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Ari Sigurpálsson12%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Erlingur Agnarsson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Gunnar Vatnhamar0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Gísli Thórdarson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Erlingur Agnarsson33%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson17%
Gísli Thórdarson17%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Davíð Örn Atlason0%
Nikolaj Hansen0%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson0%
Oliver Ekroth0%
Aron Elís Þrándarson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Ari Sigurpálsson0%
Gunnar Vatnhamar0%
Tarik Ibrahimagić0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gísli Thórdarson17%
Nikolaj Hansen14%
Danijel Dejan Djuric14%
Jón Guðni Fjóluson0%
Ingvar Jónsson0%
Valdimar Þór Ingimundarson0%
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson0%
Viktor Örlygur Andrason0%
Erlingur Agnarsson0%
Davíð Örn Atlason0%
Matthías Vilhjálmsson0%
Oliver Ekroth0%
Aron Elís Þrándarson0%
Helgi Guðjónsson0%
Ari Sigurpálsson0%
Gunnar Vatnhamar0%
Tarik Ibrahimagić0%
Sveinn Gísli Þorkelsson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
Fram Reykjavik's squad is €3m less valuable than Vikingur Reykjavik's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
Fram Reykjavik's attack is €2m less valuable than Vikingur Reykjavik's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Fram Reykjavik and Vikingur Reykjavik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
Fram Reykjavik and Vikingur Reykjavik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
Breidablik
KA Akureyri
FH hafnarfjordur
KR Reykjavik
Fylkir
HK Kopavogur
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Keflavik