Fredrikstad vs Brann Result & Analysis

The contest is finely balanced, with the model favouring a Fredrikstad victory but the margins are razor-thin. Home win probability sits at 36%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 34%. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.4% chance. The expected total of goals is 2.4, and the single most probable total is 2 goals, 28% likely.

Fredrikstad, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Brann, on the road to a similar-strength side, averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 86.4%, Under 25.5 fouls at 79.6%, Under 3.5 goals at 78.3% (miss), Under 4.5 cards at 73.5%, and Over 8.5 corners at 71.1%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability.

The upset was immediate: Fredrikstad fell 0-4 to Brann, ending their five-game winning streak at home. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 36% chance, but the model was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 5.5 cards hit at 86.4%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 79.6%, Under 3.5 missed at 78.3%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 73.5%, and Over 8.5 corners hit at 71.1%. The final score of 0-4 confirmed an away win, contradicting the model’s prediction. Brann’s unbeaten run in five matches continued, while Fredrikstad’s form slipped after a 4-1 victory over Lillestrom.