FS Jelgava, on a four-match losing streak, hosts Auda, who have won two of their last five matches. This recent form storyline is a key factor in the model's selection. The model predicts an away win, with Auda's 37% chance of victory the highest among the three possible outcomes, followed by a draw at 30%, and then FS Jelgava's 33% chance of a home win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability. FS Jelgava has scored an average of 0.88 goals at home, while conceding 1.12. Auda has scored 1.1 goals away from home, but conceded 1.2.
The model's selections include Under 3.5, with a 77.8% probability and an 8% edge, and Over 1.5, with a 70.6% probability. FS Jelgava has a 33% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 37% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The away team, Auda, secured a 0-1 win on the road, extending their winning run to four games. The model's call of an away win was correct, as Auda's recent form was on a 3-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite was the model's selection, Auda's win, with a probability of 37%. The final score was 0-1, aligning with the most likely score of 0-1, which had a 10% probability. The model's selection of Auda's win was correct. The suggested picks included an Under 3.5 total goals, which hit with a 77.8% probability, and an Over 1.5 total goals, which missed with a 70.6% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FS Jelgava win✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.15
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.40
888Sport
3.30
Pinnacle
3.29
1xBet
3.22
Dafabet
3.20
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.26
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
10Bet
3.35
Auda win✓ Hit
37.2%
Avg Implied 43.5% · @ 2.08
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.22
Dafabet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
SBO
2.11
BetVictor
2.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
FS Jelgava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.50
1.00
1.27
0.93
1.73
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.56
1.00
2.17
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.08
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.43
1.20
1.27
0.93
1.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.08
1.14
1.14
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
1.36
1.80
1.00
1.50
1.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.6%
@ 1.24-3.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
@ 3.56+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 1.82-7.7%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.89+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.92
Pinnacle
1.88
888Sport
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Unibet
1.98
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
@ 3.05-8.0%
Under 3.5
77.8%
@ 1.32+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
888Sport
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.10
1xBet
3.05
Under
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.2%
@ 1.67-4.9%
No
49.8%
@ 2.05+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.70
Superbet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Betfair
1.67
No
Betfair
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%@ 5.84+7.0%
0-0
10.3%@ 9.81+6.0%
0-1 ✓
10.0%@ 7.16+4.0%
1-0
9.1%@ 9.23+4.5%
1-2
8.1%@ 7.71+2.6%
2-1
7.5%@ 10.11+3.3%
0-2
7.0%@ 9.44+2.5%
2-0
6.0%@ 15.41+3.3%
FS Jelgava goals ↓
Auda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
10.0%
7.0%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.1%
14%
8.1%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.0%
7.5%
4.7%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.3%
2.9%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FS Jelgava goals (down), columns = Auda goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
FS Jelgava is 1.14 points worse than Auda in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
FS Jelgava and Auda are level in goals scored per game (both 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
FS Jelgava is 1.14 goals worse than Auda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FS Jelgava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.80
0.22
0.67
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.58
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.31
0.57
0.14
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.73
0.80
0.60
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FS Jelgava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
1.00
0.78
0.89
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.77
0.57
1.00
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.64
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.83
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.8%
1.32
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.6%
1.24
888Sport
1.29
Betfair
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-3.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
FS Jelgava's squad is €3m less valuable than Auda's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
FS Jelgava's attack is €2m less valuable than Auda's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
FS Jelgava and Auda have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
FS Jelgava's defence is €1m less valuable than Auda's (€1m vs €3m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
Grobiņa
Ogre United
Tukums