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FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 0-2
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Vs
39%
28%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives FS Jelgava a 39% win probability against FK Liepaja in the Latvia: Virsliga on 2026-07-26, with 28% for the draw and 33% for FK Liepaja. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (76%), Under 3.5 (72%).

Results analysis

FS Jelgava finished 0-2 against FK Liepaja (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 39% home win, 28% draw and 33% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (76%), Under 3.5 (72%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

FS Jelgava win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W23L11D11D00D22D22D11D03L01LA·RĪG13/09H·RIG21/09H·AUD27/09A·SUP04/10H·BFC18/10A·FK 25/10H·MET02/11A·TUK09/11A·RIG03/07H·RĪG20/07
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.401.121.120.931.71
vs Stronger (14)1.071.791.121.501.002.17
vs Similar (9)0.560.890.500.250.601.40
vs Weaker (7)1.571.291.751.251.331.33
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W10W22D03L21W22D21W03L40W13LH·TUK14/09A·GRO21/09H·RĪG28/09A·RIG03/10A·AUD20/10H·FS 25/10A·BFC02/11A·SUP09/11H·OGR30/06A·BFC04/07
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.371.861.141.501.56
vs Stronger (6)1.172.172.002.000.332.33
vs Similar (7)1.570.432.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (17)1.881.471.711.432.001.50
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-0
8.6%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
6.9%
0-2 ✓
5.6%
FS Jelgava goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
01234
08.3%7.6%5.6%2.3%0.7%
18.6%14%7.8%3.3%1.0%
26.9%8.6%5.4%2.3%0.7%
33.2%4.0%2.5%1.1%0.3%
41.1%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FS Jelgava goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.60
FK Liepaja
2.00
Auda
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Super Nova
1.40
Grobiņa
0.67
Ogre United
0.67
FS Jelgava
0.50
Tukums
0.43
FS Jelgava is 1.50 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (0.50 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga
3.20
Rīgas FS
2.40
FK Liepaja
2.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.71
Super Nova
1.20
Auda
1.20
Grobiņa
1.17
Ogre United
1.17
Tukums
0.71
FS Jelgava
0.67
FS Jelgava is 1.50 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 2.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.40
Rīgas FS
0.60
Auda
0.60
BFC Daugavpils
0.86
Super Nova
1.00
FK Liepaja
1.17
FS Jelgava
1.83
Tukums
2.14
Grobiņa
3.00
Ogre United
3.00
FS Jelgava is 0.67 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D01L00D00D22D11D00D01L01LA·RĪG13/09H·RIG21/09H·AUD27/09A·SUP04/10H·BFC18/10A·FK 25/10H·MET02/11A·TUK09/11A·RIG03/07H·RĪG20/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.630.440.500.570.79
vs Stronger (14)0.500.710.250.500.831.00
vs Similar (9)0.440.560.500.000.401.00
vs Weaker (7)0.570.570.751.000.330.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D01L01L11D22D00D02L30W01LH·TUK14/09A·GRO21/09H·RĪG28/09A·RIG03/10A·AUD20/10H·FS 25/10A·BFC02/11A·SUP09/11H·OGR30/06A·BFC04/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.600.930.570.750.62
vs Stronger (6)0.331.170.671.330.001.00
vs Similar (7)0.710.291.000.000.330.67
vs Weaker (17)1.060.531.000.571.100.50
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D23L10W11D00D00D11D11D02L00DA·RĪG13/09H·RIG21/09H·AUD27/09A·SUP04/10H·BFC18/10A·FK 25/10H·MET02/11A·TUK09/11A·RIG03/07H·RĪG20/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.770.690.620.360.93
vs Stronger (14)0.571.070.881.000.171.17
vs Similar (9)0.110.330.000.250.200.40
vs Weaker (7)1.000.711.000.251.001.33
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W21W02L10W00D21W01L10W12LH·TUK14/09A·GRO21/09H·RĪG28/09A·RIG03/10A·AUD20/10H·FS 25/10A·BFC02/11A·SUP09/11H·OGR30/06A·BFC04/07
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.770.930.570.750.94
vs Stronger (6)0.831.001.330.670.331.33
vs Similar (7)0.860.141.000.000.670.33
vs Weaker (17)0.820.940.710.860.901.00
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (24)
€13m
AUD (16)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (9)
€6m
AUD (7)
€2m
BD (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€2m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€5m
AUD (9)
€2m
BD (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
FJ wins
3
Draws
4
FL wins

Head-to-head

FS Jelgava vs FK Liepaja · H/A from FJ
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/25AFK Liepaja Vs FJ2-2
02/08/25HFJ Vs FK Liepaja1-2
30/05/25HFJ Vs FK Liepaja0-1
14/04/25AFK Liepaja Vs FJ1-0
03/11/24HFJ Vs FK Liepaja2-2
10/08/24AFK Liepaja Vs FJ3-0
02/06/24HFJ Vs FK Liepaja1-1
23/04/24AFK Liepaja Vs FJ0-1

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26HFJ Vs Rīgas FS0-1
03/07/26ARiga Vs FJ3-0
09/11/25ATukums Vs FJ1-1
02/11/25HFJ Vs Metta / LU2-2
25/10/25AFK Liepaja Vs FJ2-2
18/10/25HFJ Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
04/10/25ASuper Nova Vs FJ1-1
27/09/25HFJ Vs Auda1-1
21/09/25HFJ Vs Riga2-3
13/09/25ARīgas FS Vs FJ1-4

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/07/26ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL3-1
30/06/26HFL Vs Ogre United4-0
09/11/25ASuper Nova Vs FL3-0
02/11/25ABFC Daugavpils Vs FL1-2
25/10/25HFL Vs FS Jelgava2-2
20/10/25AAuda Vs FL1-2
03/10/25ARiga Vs FL3-0
28/09/25HFL Vs Rīgas FS2-2
21/09/25AGrobiņa Vs FL0-1
14/09/25HFL Vs Tukums4-1

📊 15. Overall Statistics

FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLL0.94
HomeLDDDL1.28
AwayWDDDL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%32%8%
AVG goals2.542.402.68
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %44%44%44%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.021.160.88
Conceded1.521.241.80
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.74
HomeLWDDW1.92
AwayLWWLL1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%54%50%
AVG goals3.123.173.08
Over 1.5 %82%79%85%
Over 2.5 %68%67%69%
Over 3.5 %40%46%35%
Scored1.702.001.42
Conceded1.421.171.65
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet26%38%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga515
100%
3.0
162+14
3.6
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6253.20.4
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS513
80%
2.6
123+9
3.0
60%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.40.6
-
3BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils713
57%
1.9
126+6
2.6
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja612
67%
2.0
137+6
3.3
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.2
-
5AudaAuda510
60%
2.0
63+3
1.8
60%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2021.20.6
-
6Super NovaSuper Nova57
40%
1.4
65+1
2.2
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
7Ogre UnitedOgre United64
17%
0.7
718-11
4.2
100%
100%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.0
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa64
17%
0.7
718-11
4.2
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.0
-
9FS JelgavaFS Jelgava63
17%
0.5
411-7
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.8
-
10TukumsTukums73
14%
0.4
515-10
2.9
86%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.1
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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