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FS Jelgava vs Salaspils Result & Analysis

Date: 30/10/2022
Time: 16:00
Final 4-2
FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Vs
80%
12%
8%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Salaspils
Salaspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

šŸŽÆ 1. Model Analysis

FS Jelgava wināœ“ Hit
79.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawāœ— Miss
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Salaspils wināœ— Miss
7.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W20W40W00D30W20W10W50W30W40WA·RÄŖG05/08H·RĒZ21/08A·TUK26/08A·GRO04/09A·SAL10/09A·DIN18/09A·JDF02/10A·SMI09/10H·SKA15/10A·PRO23/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.910.433.360.552.500.33
vs Stronger (4)2.500.753.001.002.000.50
vs Similar (14)2.860.213.170.002.620.38
vs Weaker (5)3.400.804.001.332.500.00
Clean sheet %78% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Salaspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SalaspilsSalaspils

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1039L92W01L12L00D01L00D110L32W20WA·GRO24/08H·SMI28/08H·SKA03/09H·PRO10/09H·TUK18/09H·DIN25/09A·RIG01/10H·VAL08/10A·RÄŖG15/10H·RĒZ22/10
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.572.701.502.421.643.00
vs Stronger (4)1.252.501.002.501.502.50
vs Similar (13)2.003.382.002.712.004.17
vs Weaker (6)0.831.330.671.671.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%2%04%112%217%319%417%528%6+
The model estimates around 4.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.1%
Under 1.5
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
82.1%
Under 2.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.0%
Under 3.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.5%
No
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.1%
3-0
7.4%
2-1
7.2%
4-1
6.8%
2-0
6.6%
4-0
6.2%
1-1
4.7%
5-1
4.6%
FS Jelgava goals ↓
Salaspils goals →
01234
01.6%0.8%0.7%0.3%0.1%
13.5%4.7%2.3%0.9%0.2%
26.6%7.2%3.9%1.4%0.4%
37.4%8.1%4.4%1.6%0.4%
46.2%6.8%3.7%1.4%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FS Jelgava goals (down), columns = Salaspils goals (across).

šŸ’Ŗ 3. Team Strengths Analysis

šŸ† Total PPG

Points / game
FS Jelgava
2.81
Riga FC II
2.31
Grobiņa
2.04
Valmiera II
2.00
Rīgas FS II
1.77
JDFS Alberts
1.73
Skanste
1.42
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.96
Salaspils
0.96
Saldus SS/Leevon
0.88
Tukums II
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.85
Rēzekne FA
0.81
Smiltene
0.62
FS Jelgava is 1.85 points better than Salaspils in terms of average points per game (2.81 vs 0.96).

āš”ļø Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera II
3.46
Grobiņa
3.27
Riga FC II
3.23
FS Jelgava
2.92
Rīgas FS II
2.88
Salaspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.46
JDFS Alberts
1.46
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.31
Skanste
1.31
Rēzekne FA
1.27
Tukums II
1.27
Smiltene
0.92
Dinamo Rīga
0.65
FS Jelgava is 1.38 goals better than Salaspils in terms of goals scored per game (2.92 vs 1.54).

šŸ›”ļø Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FS Jelgava
0.50
JDFS Alberts
0.96
Riga FC II
1.04
Valmiera II
1.42
Grobiņa
1.50
Skanste
1.58
Rīgas FS II
1.65
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.88
Dinamo Rīga
2.19
Tukums II
2.54
Rēzekne FA
2.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.77
Salaspils
2.88
Smiltene
3.35
FS Jelgava is 2.38 goals better than Salaspils in terms of goals conceded per game (0.50 vs 2.88).

ā±ļø Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

šŸŽ² 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

šŸ”€ 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

šŸ„… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

āš–ļø 7. Handicap

ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D00D10W10W00D30W10W20WA·RÄŖG05/08H·RĒZ21/08A·TUK26/08A·GRO04/09A·SAL10/09A·DIN18/09A·JDF02/10A·SMI09/10H·SKA15/10A·PRO23/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.261.360.271.000.25
vs Stronger (4)0.500.250.500.500.500.00
vs Similar (14)1.430.211.500.001.380.38
vs Weaker (5)1.000.401.670.670.000.00
Clean sheet %83% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Salaspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SalaspilsSalaspils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-814L41W01L10W00D00D00D08L21W00DA·GRO24/08H·SMI28/08H·SKA03/09H·PRO10/09H·TUK18/09H·DIN25/09A·RIG01/10H·VAL08/10A·RÄŖG15/10H·RĒZ22/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.641.360.501.170.801.60
vs Stronger (4)0.751.500.502.001.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.751.830.711.430.802.40
vs Weaker (6)0.330.330.000.000.670.67
Clean sheet %45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W40W00D20W10W10W20W20W20WA·RÄŖG05/08H·RĒZ21/08A·TUK26/08A·GRO04/09A·SAL10/09A·DIN18/09A·JDF02/10A·SMI09/10H·SKA15/10A·PRO23/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.740.172.000.271.500.08
vs Stronger (4)2.000.502.500.501.500.50
vs Similar (14)1.430.001.670.001.250.00
vs Weaker (5)2.400.402.330.672.500.00
Clean sheet %87% (+61pp vs league)
This opponent (Salaspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SalaspilsSalaspils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-525L51W00D02L00D01L00D12L11D20WA·GRO24/08H·SMI28/08H·SKA03/09H·PRO10/09H·TUK18/09H·DIN25/09A·RIG01/10H·VAL08/10A·RÄŖG15/10H·RĒZ22/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.451.001.251.001.70
vs Stronger (4)0.501.000.500.500.501.50
vs Similar (12)1.421.831.291.291.602.60
vs Weaker (6)0.501.000.671.670.330.33
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ„… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

šŸ”„ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.594.1%-------āœ“ Hit
Over 2.582.1%-------āœ“ Hit
Home win79.8%-------āœ“ Hit

šŸ’° 14. Squad value

šŸ’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

āš”ļø Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ›”ļø Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

šŸ¤ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
FJ wins
0
Draws
0
SAL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

FS Jelgava vs Salaspils · H/A from FJ
DateH/AGameScore
17/07/22ASalaspils Vs FJ0-3

FS JelgavaFS Jelgava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/10/22AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs FJ0-4
15/10/22HFJ Vs Skanste3-0
09/10/22ASmiltene Vs FJ0-5
02/10/22AJDFS Alberts Vs FJ0-1
18/09/22ADinamo Rīga Vs FJ0-2
10/09/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs FJ0-3
04/09/22AGrobiņa Vs FJ0-0
26/08/22ATukums II Vs FJ0-4
21/08/22HFJ Vs Rēzekne FA2-0
05/08/22ARīgas FS II Vs FJ0-1

SalaspilsSalaspils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/22HSAL Vs Rēzekne FA2-0
15/10/22ARīgas FS II Vs SAL2-3
08/10/22HSAL Vs Valmiera II1-10
01/10/22ARiga FC II Vs SAL0-0
25/09/22HSAL Vs Dinamo Rīga0-1
18/09/22HSAL Vs Tukums II0-0
10/09/22HSAL Vs Progress / AFA Olaine1-2
03/09/22HSAL Vs Skanste0-1
28/08/22HSAL Vs Smiltene9-2
24/08/22AGrobiņa Vs SAL9-3

šŸ“Š 16. Overall Statistics

FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.78
HomeWWWWW3.00
AwayWWWWW2.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %91%100%83%
AVG goals3.353.912.83
Over 1.5 %83%91%75%
Over 2.5 %61%64%58%
Over 3.5 %48%55%42%
Scored2.913.362.50
Conceded0.430.550.33
BTTS22%27%17%
Clean Sheet78%73%83%
Corners---
Cards---
Salaspils
Salaspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.09
HomeLDLLW0.92
AwayLWLDW1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%25%36%
AVG goals4.263.924.64
Over 1.5 %78%75%82%
Over 2.5 %70%58%82%
Over 3.5 %39%33%45%
Scored1.571.501.64
Conceded2.702.423.00
BTTS57%50%64%
Clean Sheet17%17%18%
Corners---
Cards---

šŸ† 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FS JelgavaFS Jelgava2673
92%
2.8
7613+63
3.4
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1012.90.5
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2660
73%
2.3
8427+57
4.3
92%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
3GrobiņaGrobiņa2653
65%
2.0
8539+46
4.8
92%
88%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.31.5
-
4Valmiera IIValmiera II2652
65%
2.0
9037+53
4.9
88%
77%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.51.4
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2646
54%
1.8
7543+32
4.5
92%
77%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.7
-
6JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2645
50%
1.7
3825+13
2.4
62%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
7SkansteSkanste2637
38%
1.4
3441-7
2.9
81%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2625
27%
1.0
3872-34
4.2
96%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.8
-
9SalaspilsSalaspils2625
27%
1.0
4075-35
4.4
81%
73%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.9
-
10Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2623
23%
0.9
3449-15
3.2
85%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
11Tukums IITukums II2622
23%
0.8
3366-33
3.8
85%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
12Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2622
23%
0.8
1757-40
2.8
69%
50%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
13Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2621
23%
0.8
3370-37
4.0
88%
69%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
14SmilteneSmiltene2616
15%
0.6
2487-63
4.3
85%
77%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.3
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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