The clash between Fulham and Chelsea is a tight one, with no clear favourite. The model picks an away win, giving Chelsea a 39 % chance, while Fulham’s home win sits at 34 % and a draw at 27 %. The expected total of 2.8 goals suggests a moderately high scoring affair, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13 % chance.
Fulham, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 2.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded. Chelsea, on the road versus a weaker opponent, averages 2.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Recent form shows Fulham coming off a win, while Chelsea return after a defeat.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0 % with a 7 % edge), Under 6.5 (97.4 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.3 % with a 2 % edge), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.7 % with a 6 % edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (93.7 % with a 7 % edge).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Chelsea secured a 3-2 away win, extending their winning streak. The pre-match favourite was the away side, given a 39% chance, and the model’s pick was correct. The final score of 2-3 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Under 6.5 at 97.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 94.7%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.7%. The model’s confidence in the low-scoring, home-side under-goal selections was fully rewarded.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fulham win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.94
Edge
+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.22
1xBet
4.21
Unibet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Bet365
4.10
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.71
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.90
1xBet
3.86
Pinnacle
3.83
Unibet
3.80
Betano
3.80
Chelsea win✓ Hit
39.0%
Avg Implied 49.9% · @ 1.92
Edge
-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.40
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Dafabet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fulham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.33
1.60
1.27
1.07
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.71
2.67
2.67
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (22)
1.27
0.91
1.33
0.92
1.20
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.60
1.47
1.40
2.00
1.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
4.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
5.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.67
0.67
1.67
1.50
1.67
vs Weaker (16)
2.31
1.25
2.25
1.00
2.38
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fulham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
@ 1.25+2.8%
Under 1.5
21.4%
@ 3.92-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.44
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.04
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.8%
@ 1.78+0.3%
Under 2.5
46.2%
@ 2.05-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.80
SBO
1.80
Under
1xBet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
SBO
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.5%
@ 3.03+0.3%
Under 3.5
68.5%
@ 1.37-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Betano
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.97
Superbet
2.95
Under
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.4%
@ 1.71+3.5%
No
41.6%
@ 2.08-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.67
William Hil
1.67
No
Betfair
2.20
888Sport
2.15
William Hil
2.15
1xBet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.70+5.8%
1-2
8.7%@ 8.04+2.7%
2-1
8.0%@ 12.07+4.0%
0-1
7.5%@ 7.65+1.2%
0-0
7.1%@ 12.08+3.1%
1-0
6.8%@ 11.71+2.7%
0-2
6.4%@ 9.43+1.3%
2-2
5.9%@ 13.25+2.2%
Fulham goals ↓
Chelsea goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
7.5%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.8%
13%
8.7%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.4%
8.0%
5.9%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.4%
3.6%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fulham goals (down), columns = Chelsea goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Fulham and Chelsea are level in average points per game (both 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Fulham is 0.29 goals worse than Chelsea in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Fulham is 0.03 goals better than Chelsea in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Fulham is 6.4 percentage points worse than Chelsea in terms of average possession (51% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Fulham
For 6.6 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.1 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chelsea
For 5.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.8 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fulham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.1
9.8
3.6
3.7
3.4
20.2
20.2
20.1
vs Stronger (11)
11.0
11.8
10.0
2.2
2.0
2.4
17.7
16.8
18.8
vs Similar (35)
10.2
10.8
9.7
4.2
4.6
3.8
21.4
21.9
20.9
vs Weaker (4)
11.2
11.5
11.0
2.2
1.5
3.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
% over line
66%
76%
56%
50%
52%
48%
36%
40%
32%
% under line
34%
24%
44%
50%
48%
52%
64%
60%
68%
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.7
9.2
4.4
4.4
4.3
23.0
23.0
23.0
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
12.0
5.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
19.5
18.0
21.0
vs Similar (23)
9.6
10.1
9.0
4.7
4.9
4.4
24.7
23.8
25.6
vs Weaker (25)
10.4
11.2
9.7
4.4
4.3
4.5
21.8
22.7
21.0
% over line
60%
67%
54%
64%
71%
58%
58%
67%
50%
% under line
40%
33%
46%
36%
29%
42%
42%
33%
50%
This opponent (Fulham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.0
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Manchester City
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Tottenham
9.9
Coventry
9.7
Brighton
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Aston Villa
9.4
Everton
9.2
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.6
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.2
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.1
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.3
Chelsea
23.0
Tottenham
23.0
Sunderland
22.7
Brighton
22.2
Arsenal
22.1
Everton
22.0
Leeds
21.9
Newcastle
21.8
Manchester United
21.7
Crystal Palace
21.5
Hull
21.4
Liverpool
21.3
Manchester City
21.3
Coventry
21.0
Fulham
20.2
Brentford
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.0%
@ 1.62-2.2%
Under 9.5
45.0%
@ 2.17+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
Under
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.6%
@ 1.45-4.5%
Under 3.5
40.4%
@ 2.59+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Unibet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Superbet
2.55
Betano
2.42
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.4%
@ 1.73-3.1%
Under 21.5
49.6%
@ 1.99+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.10
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.92
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fulham or Draw✗ Miss
61.0%
Avg Implied 49.9% · @ 1.89
Edge
+11.1%
34%
27%
39%
covers Fulham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.99
Unibet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Fulham or Chelsea✓ Hit
72.6%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
-2.2%
34%
27%
39%
covers Fulham + Chelsea
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Draw or Chelsea✓ Hit
66.4%
Avg Implied 75.3% · @ 1.25
Edge
-8.8%
34%
27%
39%
covers Draw + Chelsea
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fulham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.2%
@ 1.41+8.1%
Under
25.8%
@ 2.75-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.75
888Sport
2.75
Fulham over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.2%
@ 3.00+8.1%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.36-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.17
Marathonbet
3.08
Unibet
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Fulham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 7.58+3.2%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.07-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
1xBet
8.20
888Sport
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Under
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Fulham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 21.12+0.3%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.01-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Chelsea over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.1%
@ 1.16-3.3%
Under
22.9%
@ 4.78+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Under
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Chelsea over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.4%
@ 1.82-7.9%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.92+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.98
Unibet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Chelsea over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
18.5%
@ 3.59-7.5%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.26+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.68
Marathonbet
3.66
10Bet
3.65
1xBet
3.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Chelsea over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 8.05-5.4%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.06+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fulham, so a minus line means Fulham give that many goals of a start and Chelsea receive them. At -1, Fulham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fulham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fulham)Actual: Chelsea
Fulham -2
5.6%
@ 22.40+1.4%
Draw -2
10.1%
@ 11.20+1.8%
Chelsea +2
84.4%
@ 1.06-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
26.00
10Bet
23.00
Betfair
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Unibet
18.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Away
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (Fulham)Actual: Chelsea
Fulham -1
15.6%
@ 8.84+5.3%
Draw -1
18.0%
@ 5.45+1.3%
Chelsea +1
66.4%
@ 1.24-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
10Bet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Handicap +1 (Fulham)Actual: Draw
Fulham +1
61.0%
@ 1.86+11.7%
Draw +1
19.7%
@ 3.66-5.3%
Chelsea -1
19.3%
@ 3.56-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.22
Superbet
3.20
Unibet
3.05
Handicap +2 (Fulham)Actual: Fulham
Fulham +2
80.7%
@ 1.28+7.8%
Draw +2
11.9%
@ 5.82-4.1%
Chelsea -2
7.4%
@ 8.32-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Draw
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Bet365
5.00
Away
10Bet
17.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fulham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.71
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.25
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.32
0.58
0.25
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.75
0.17
0.50
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.44
0.88
0.50
0.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Fulham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.7%
@ 1.34+0.6%
Under 0.5
29.3%
@ 3.15-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.20
William Hil
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.3%
@ 2.59-0.9%
Under 1.5
64.7%
@ 1.47+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Pinnacle
2.70
Marathonbet
2.67
1xBet
2.67
SBO
2.63
Under
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
SBO
1.49
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.48
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 6.37-2.9%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.10+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
1xBet
6.60
William Hil
6.50
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fulham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.4%
@ 2.38+7.3%
Under
53.6%
@ 1.53-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.45
1xBet
2.40
Unibet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
Under
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Fulham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 8.12+2.5%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.04-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Betano
7.40
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Fulham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 22.75-2.3%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Chelsea over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.3%
@ 1.75-9.8%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.99+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Chelsea over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.2%
@ 4.70-8.5%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.15+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.70
Unibet
4.70
Superbet
4.55
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Chelsea over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 12.25-5.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fulham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.87
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.00
2.00
1.67
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.59
0.75
0.67
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Chelsea) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chelsea
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.93
0.93
0.80
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.92
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
0.81
1.38
0.50
1.50
1.12
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Fulham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.2%
@ 1.20+1.3%
Under 0.5
20.8%
@ 4.23-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Superbet
4.30
Unibet
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.3%
@ 1.98-3.2%
Under 1.5
55.7%
@ 1.79+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Under
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.3%
@ 4.12-3.5%
Under 2.5
80.7%
@ 1.22+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
4.40
William Hil
4.40
Superbet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fulham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.6%
@ 1.98+6.7%
Under
46.4%
@ 1.75-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Fulham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.7%
@ 5.98+5.2%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.10-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.20
Superbet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
Fulham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 15.75-1.4%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Chelsea over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.6%
@ 1.52-9.7%
Under
48.4%
@ 2.41+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Under
1xBet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.35
Chelsea over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 3.44-10.7%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.27+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Chelsea over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 8.70-5.4%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.04+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Superbet
9.10
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Unibet
1.03
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.15
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+8.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.10
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.04
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.4%
1.07
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.4%
1.06
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
84.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
888Sport
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.27
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.5%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.29
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.7%
1.28
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.6%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.3%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.6%
1.25
10Bet
1.44
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.4%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.17
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.1%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.0%
1.41
Unibet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.2%
1.41
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.6%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.34
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
+0.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Fulham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gonzalo García67%
Ryan Sessegnon0%
Calvin Bassey0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
César Palacios0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Calvin Bassey33%
César Palacios33%
Ryan Sessegnon0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
Gonzalo García0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan Sessegnon33%
Calvin Bassey0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
Gonzalo García0%
César Palacios0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ryan Sessegnon0%
Calvin Bassey0%
Kevin0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Shea Charles0%
Gonzalo García0%
César Palacios0%
Chelsea
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto33%
Morgan Rogers33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reece James33%
Roméo Lavia33%
Pedro Neto0%
João Pedro0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Cole Palmer0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Pedro67%
Morgan Rogers33%
Maxence Lacroix33%
Cole Palmer33%
Malo Gusto33%
Jorrel Hato33%
Pedro Neto0%
Reece James0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
João Pedro67%
Cole Palmer67%
Pedro Neto0%
Morgan Rogers0%
Reece James0%
Maxence Lacroix0%
Malo Gusto0%
Pep Chavarría0%
Roméo Lavia0%
Jorrel Hato0%
Josh Acheampong0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Fulham's squad is €1078m less valuable than Chelsea's (€329m vs €1407m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Fulham's attack is €436m less valuable than Chelsea's (€178m vs €614m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Fulham's midfield is €251m less valuable than Chelsea's (€28m vs €278m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Fulham's defence is €392m less valuable than Chelsea's (€123m vs €514m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham