Fylde are tipped to edge Solihull at home, the model’s pick reflecting a 45% chance of a win versus 26% for a draw and 29% for an away victory. The expected total of three goals points to a lively encounter, but the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, a 12.2% probability that the match ends level. Fylde, playing against a weaker side, average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded at home, while Solihull, facing a stronger opponent on the road, average 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 81%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.6%, and Over 2.5 cards at 74.2%. Fylde’s recent five-game run of WWLWD, highlighted by a 3-1 win over Solihull, gives them momentum, whereas Solihull’s five consecutive defeats, including a 1-3 loss to Fylde, suggest a struggle. The overall picture is a competitive match where Fylde’s home advantage and recent form give them a slight edge, yet the probability of a 1-1 draw keeps the outcome uncertain.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Fylde, did not deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that broke the home side’s two-game winning run. The model had picked a home win with a 45% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 1.5 goals, with an 81% probability, hit; Under 5.5 cards, at 80.6%, hit; and Over 2.5 cards, at 74.2%, hit. Fylde’s recent form had shown a 2-game winning streak, yet they could not overcome Solihull’s five-match losing run, ending the game with a balanced 2-2 scoreline.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylde win✗ Miss
45.4%
Avg Implied 45.5% · @ 2.03
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.70
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Solihull win✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.12
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
F
Fylde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.70
1.53
1.67
1.67
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.75
1.86
1.57
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.67
1.67
1.25
1.75
2.00
1.60
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Solihull
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.37
1.53
1.07
1.60
1.67
vs Stronger (14)
1.64
1.14
1.71
1.14
1.57
1.14
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.56
1.38
1.00
1.62
2.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.3%
@ 1.58-1.7%
Under 2.5
42.7%
@ 2.28+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.4%
No
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.2%
0-0
6.2%
2-2 ✓
6.1%
0-1
5.5%
Fylde goals ↓
Solihull goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.5%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
1
7.4%
12%
7.2%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.3%
6.1%
2.6%
0.9%
3
4.0%
5.2%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylde goals (down), columns = Solihull goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
Fylde is 0.46 points worse than Solihull in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Hartlepool
1.52
Southend
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
Fylde is 0.07 goals better than Solihull in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.54).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
Fylde is 0.43 goals worse than Solihull in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
Fylde is 1.5 percentage points worse than Solihull in terms of average possession (47% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
F
Fylde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.70
0.87
0.80
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.75
1.29
0.86
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.67
0.50
0.75
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Solihull
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
0.29
1.00
0.29
0.71
0.29
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.69
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
F
Fylde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.67
0.87
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
1.00
0.57
0.71
0.20
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
0.78
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Solihull
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.80
0.67
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
0.86
0.71
0.86
0.86
0.86
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.88
0.88
0.50
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylde) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →