Fylkir’s recent two-game winning streak and a 3-1 victory over Grotta set a confident tone for the home side, and the model reflects that with a 64% chance of a home win, a 21% chance of a draw and only a 15% chance of an away win. The favourite result is a home win, driven by Fylkir’s strong home form - averaging 2.67 goals scored and conceding just 0.67 against similar opposition - while Afturelding’s away numbers are modest, with only 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to an open game, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Fylkir, with a 10.1% probability. The model’s single selection is Over 1.5 goals, carrying an 83.6% chance. The probabilities for the match outcomes are 64% home win, 21% draw, and 15% away win, and the only suggested pick is Over 1.5 with 83.6%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Fylkir, failed to deliver as the match finished 2-2, a draw that snapped their two-game winning run. The model had picked a home win with a 64% probability, but that call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which the model set at 83.6% and it hit, as the total of four goals was well above the 1.5 threshold. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, confirming the draw. The upset left the model’s favourite off the mark, while its single other suggestion proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylkir win✗ Miss
64.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Afturelding win✗ Miss
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.62
1.25
3.25
1.00
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
3.00
1.50
5.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
2.50
1.17
2.67
0.67
2.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
12% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Afturelding
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.25
1.38
1.60
1.40
0.67
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.50
1.50
1.25
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
12% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.8%
1-0
8.3%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
7.3%
0-0
5.0%
2-2 ✓
4.8%
Fylkir goals ↓
Afturelding goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.2%
2.0%
0.6%
0.2%
1
8.3%
9.8%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.4%
7.3%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.1%
4.0%
2.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylkir goals (down), columns = Afturelding goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fylkir
2.32
HK Kopavogur
2.09
Grotta
1.68
Fjolnir
1.64
Kórdrengir
1.50
Selfoss
1.45
Thor Akureyri
1.36
Afturelding
1.32
Vestri
1.27
Grindavik
1.23
KV
0.82
Thróttur Vogar
0.27
Fylkir is 1.00 points better than Afturelding in terms of average points per game (2.32 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fylkir
2.86
Fjolnir
2.32
HK Kopavogur
2.09
Grindavik
1.95
Grotta
1.91
Selfoss
1.86
Afturelding
1.77
Vestri
1.64
Kórdrengir
1.64
Thor Akureyri
1.41
KV
1.23
Thróttur Vogar
0.36
Fylkir is 1.09 goals better than Afturelding in terms of goals scored per game (2.86 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fylkir
1.05
HK Kopavogur
1.36
Kórdrengir
1.36
Grotta
1.50
Thor Akureyri
1.59
Fjolnir
1.68
Afturelding
1.77
Selfoss
1.77
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
2.05
KV
2.36
Thróttur Vogar
2.55
Fylkir is 0.73 goals better than Afturelding in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 1.77).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.12
0.38
1.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Afturelding
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.12
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.17
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
88% (+69pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.88
1.75
0.50
1.25
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.00
1.67
0.33
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Afturelding
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
1.25
0.80
1.40
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
1.33
0.75
1.25
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
12% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (21)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
Fylkir and Afturelding have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (7)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
Fylkir and Afturelding have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Fylkir and Afturelding have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (10)
€1m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
Fylkir and Afturelding have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
HK Kopavogur
Grotta
Fjolnir
Kórdrengir
Selfoss
Thor Akureyri
Vestri
Grindavik
KV
Thróttur Vogar