Fylkir and Afturelding are set to clash in the Iceland: 1. Deild. The recent form of both teams is worth noting, with Fylkir coming off a defeat and Afturelding having just secured a 4-1 win over Grindavik. This high-scoring match is expected to yield 3.5 goals on average, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.1%.
Fylkir has been scoring an average of 1.69 goals at home and conceding 1.38, while Afturelding averages 0.88 goals away and concedes 2.25. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 38%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, which has a probability of 87.5% and an edge of 7%. The model's selection is the draw, with a probability of 24%, while the away win has a probability of 38%.
Results analysis
A stunning draw in Iceland's 1. Deild as Fylkir and Afturelding played out a 3-3 thriller. This result extends Fylkir's run of consecutive draws to four, having previously come off a win. The win for Afturelding, however, was a surprise, as they were the pre-match favourite with a 39% chance of winning, a call the model correctly made. The model's selection of an away win was correct, but the actual result was a draw. The model's suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 87.5% probability of occurrence.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylkir win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied 37.2% · @ 2.43
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.60
Pinnacle
2.53
BetVictor
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Draw✓ Hit
24.0%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.70
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
BetVictor
3.90
Pinnacle
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Dafabet
3.75
Afturelding win✗ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.36
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.65
Superbet
2.60
Unibet
2.45
Betano
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.33
2.59
1.29
1.85
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
3.00
1.50
3.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
2.21
1.32
2.53
1.27
1.85
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Afturelding
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.93
2.33
1.67
1.67
2.20
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
1.50
6.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.68
2.08
2.00
1.83
1.38
2.31
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
1.00
2.50
1.00
6.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
3% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.5%
@ 1.09+2.8%
Under 1.5
12.5%
@ 6.05-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.05
Under
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Bet365
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.3%
@ 1.35+0.3%
Under 2.5
31.7%
@ 2.86-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.8%
@ 1.91-2.0%
Under 3.5
53.2%
@ 1.81+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
SBO
1.95
10Bet
1.93
888Sport
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.90
Superbet
1.83
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.82
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.5%
@ 1.33+0.2%
No
30.5%
@ 3.00-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
No
BetVictor
3.13
1xBet
3.12
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Superbet
3.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%@ 7.68+4.5%
1-2
8.2%@ 8.92+3.4%
2-1
8.0%@ 9.35+3.4%
2-2
7.1%@ 9.24+2.5%
1-3
4.9%@ 13.93+1.8%
0-2
4.7%@ 15.26+1.9%
3-1
4.6%@ 14.78+1.7%
2-0
4.5%@ 15.80+1.8%
Fylkir goals ↓
Afturelding goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
4.4%
4.7%
2.8%
1.2%
1
4.2%
10%
8.2%
4.9%
2.2%
2
4.5%
8.0%
7.1%
4.2%
1.9%
3
2.6%
4.6%
4.1%
2.4%
1.1%
4
1.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylkir goals (down), columns = Afturelding goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
Fylkir is 0.44 points worse than Afturelding in terms of average points per game (1.78 vs 2.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
Fylkir is 0.56 goals worse than Afturelding in terms of goals scored per game (2.78 vs 3.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
Fylkir is 0.44 goals worse than Afturelding in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.57
1.35
0.53
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.14
0.57
1.27
0.53
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Afturelding
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.80
0.73
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.72
0.58
0.75
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.77
1.24
0.76
0.85
0.77
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
0.75
1.27
0.73
0.85
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Afturelding
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.23
1.53
0.93
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.36
1.42
1.08
1.08
1.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.5%
1.09
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
Fylkir and Afturelding have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Fylkir and Afturelding have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Fylkir and Afturelding have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
Fylkir and Afturelding have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Njardvik
Throttur Reykjavik
Völsungur
Grindavik
HK Kopavogur
IR Reykjavik
Leiknir R.
Grotta
Vestri
Ægir