Fylkir’s recent win over Grindavik, a 6-1 triumph, fuels confidence as they host Grotta, who just suffered a 1-3 loss to IR Reykjavik. The model rates Fylkir as the clear favourite, assigning a 63% chance of victory, 18% for a draw and 19% for a Grotta win. The predicted outcome is a home win, and the expected total of 4.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being 6 + goals at 29%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1, carrying a 7.6% probability. Fylkir averages 2.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded at home against similarly strong opponents, while Grotta, away, averages 1.5 scored and 1.62 conceded. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 (94.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (94.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.9%), Under 7.5 (91.6%), Home +2 handicap (91.1%), Under 6.5 (83.6%), Over 2.5 (82.3%) and Home or Away (82.2%). These picks reflect the model’s confidence in a decisive home win and a prolific scoring match.
Results analysis
The match saw Fylkir extend their winning streak, coming off a 6-1 triumph over Grindavik, while Grotta returned from a 1-3 loss to IR Reykjavik. The model predicted a home win with a 63% probability, and this call proved correct as Fylkir secured a 4-2 victory. The most likely total was 6+ goals, and the game delivered six, matching that expectation. Every suggested pick hit: Over 1.5 (94.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (94.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.9%), Under 7.5 (91.6%), Home +2 handicap (91.1%), Under 6.5 (83.6%), Over 2.5 (82.3%) and Home or Away (82.2%). The model’s selections performed consistently, confirming its accuracy for this encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylkir win✓ Hit
62.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grotta win✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.33
2.35
1.35
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
1.33
3.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
2.00
1.32
2.36
1.29
1.55
1.36
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grotta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.17
1.60
2.20
1.27
2.13
vs Stronger (16)
1.31
2.25
1.56
1.89
1.00
2.71
vs Similar (14)
1.57
2.07
1.67
2.67
1.50
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (29%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.2%
Under 1.5
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
82.3%
Under 2.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.2%
Under 3.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
76.0%
No
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.6%
3-1
7.2%
2-2
6.1%
1-1
5.8%
3-2
5.8%
4-1
5.1%
2-0
4.7%
3-0
4.5%
Fylkir goals ↓
Grotta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.7%
1.3%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
1
2.8%
5.8%
4.3%
2.3%
0.9%
2
4.7%
7.6%
6.1%
3.3%
1.3%
3
4.5%
7.2%
5.8%
3.1%
1.3%
4
3.2%
5.1%
4.1%
2.2%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylkir goals (down), columns = Grotta goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fram Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.40
Kári
2.25
Keflavik
2.25
Stjarnan
2.25
Thor Akureyri
2.25
Vestri
2.20
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Haukar
2.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
2.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Leiknir R.
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Fjolnir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
Njardvik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
KA Akureyri
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
RB
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Höttur / Huginn
1.50
Smári
1.50
BF 108
1.50
Kría
1.50
KFR
1.50
Hafnir
1.50
ÍH
1.50
Augnablik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Magni
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.50
Árbær
1.50
Sindri
1.50
Ellidi
1.50
KV
1.50
KR Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.50
Úlfarnir
1.33
Völsungur
1.33
Reynir Hellissandur
1.10
KB
1.10
Dalvík / Reynir
0.00
Ægir
0.00
Álftanes
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
KFG
0.00
SR
0.00
Vængir Júpiters
0.00
Hamar
0.00
KFS
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
0.00
Léttir
0.00
KF
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Ýmir
0.00
KH
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
Fylkir and Grotta are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
6.50
Kári
5.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
4.67
Stjarnan
4.50
Njardvik
4.00
BF 108
4.00
Throttur Reykjavik
3.67
HK Kopavogur
3.50
Fylkir
3.50
Keflavik
3.50
Thor Akureyri
3.50
Selfoss
3.33
IR Reykjavik
3.00
Grindavik
3.00
KA Akureyri
3.00
Álafoss
3.00
Tindastóll
3.00
ÍH
3.00
KF
3.00
Hvíti riddarinn
3.00
Ellidi
3.00
Ýmir
3.00
Breidablik
3.00
Leiknir R.
2.50
Smári
2.50
KFR
2.50
Spyrnir
2.50
Árbær
2.50
Völsungur
2.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.33
Reynir Hellissandur
2.03
KB
2.03
Fjolnir
2.00
Dalvík / Reynir
2.00
IA Akranes
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Ægir
2.00
RB
2.00
KFG
2.00
SR
2.00
Hafnir
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
2.00
Augnablik
2.00
Haukar
2.00
Magni
2.00
KV
2.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.80
Úlfarnir
1.67
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
1.67
Vestri
1.60
Grotta
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Fram Reykjavik
1.50
Vængir Júpiters
1.00
Kría
1.00
Hamar
1.00
KFS
1.00
Léttir
1.00
Sindri
1.00
Thorlákur
1.00
KH
1.00
Höttur / Huginn
0.50
Álftanes
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
Fylkir is 2.00 goals better than Grotta in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Afturelding
0.33
Leiknir R.
0.50
Sindri
0.50
Fram Reykjavik
0.50
Vestri
0.80
Valur Reykjavik
0.80
IA Akranes
1.00
Vídir
1.00
Skallagrímur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
1.00
Breidablik
1.00
Throttur Reykjavik
1.33
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Keflavik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Haukar
1.67
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.00
Vængir Júpiters
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Léttir
2.00
Hvíti riddarinn
2.00
Ellidi
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Einherji
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.33
Fjolnir
2.50
Grotta
2.50
Njardvik
2.50
Höttur / Huginn
2.50
Smári
2.50
BF 108
2.50
KFR
2.50
Augnablik
2.50
Úlfarnir
2.67
Reynir Hellissandur
2.74
KB
2.74
Kári
2.75
Ægir
3.00
Álftanes
3.00
KFG
3.00
SR
3.00
Kría
3.00
Hamar
3.00
ÍH
3.00
Stokkseyri
3.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
Stjarnan
3.25
RB
3.50
Reynir
3.50
Dalvík / Reynir
4.00
Álafoss
4.00
Árborg
4.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
4.00
Thorlákur
4.00
Ýmir
4.00
KH
4.00
KV
4.00
Fálkar
4.00
Magni
4.50
Árbær
4.50
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
4.67
Hafnir
5.00
KF
5.00
Neisti D.
5.00
ÍBU
6.00
Thróttur Vogar
6.00
KFS
7.00
Afríka
8.00
Fylkir is 1.00 goals better than Grotta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Fylkir or Draw✓ Hit
80.6%
Avg Implied -
63%
18%
19%
covers Fylkir + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fylkir or Grotta✓ Hit
82.2%
Avg Implied -
63%
18%
19%
covers Fylkir + Grotta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grotta✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied -
63%
18%
19%
covers Draw + Grotta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Fylkir over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.2%
Under
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Fylkir, so a minus line means Fylkir give that many goals of a start and Grotta receive them. At -1, Fylkir must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Fylkir win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Fylkir)Actual: Draw
Fylkir -2
26.4%
Draw -2
17.5%
Grotta +2
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir -1
43.9%
Draw -1
18.9%
Grotta +1
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir +1
80.6%
Draw +1
10.5%
Grotta -1
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Fylkir)Actual: Fylkir
Fylkir +2
91.1%
Draw +2
5.6%
Grotta -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.24
0.59
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.68
1.14
0.64
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grotta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.56
0.44
0.44
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.93
0.50
1.17
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.12
0.76
1.08
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.64
1.21
0.64
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Grotta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grotta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
1.13
1.47
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
1.69
1.11
1.44
0.57
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
1.14
1.17
1.50
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grotta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
94.2%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
94.2%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.9%
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-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
91.6%
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-
-
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✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.1%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
83.6%
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-
-
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✓ Hit
Over 2.5
82.3%
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✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.2%
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✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.6%
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✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.6%
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✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.1%
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✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.0%
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✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
77.8%
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✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
76.0%
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✓ Hit
Under 5.5
70.9%
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✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →