Fylkir’s recent win and a 6-1 demolition of Grindavik suggest a sharp start, while Völsungur’s 0-4 loss to Njardvik leaves them rattled. The model favours a home win, with a 54 % chance, a 22 % chance of a draw and a 23 % chance of an away victory. The expected total is 3.5 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.7 % chance. Fylkir, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded; Völsungur, on the road to a stronger opponent, averages 1.38 scored and 2.92 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 87.4 % probability. The match is projected to be high-scoring, and the home side’s recent form supports the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The latest Icelandic 1. Deild clash saw Fylkir extend their winning run, coming off a 6-1 triumph over Grindavik, while Völsungur entered after a 0-4 loss to Njardvik. The model’s favourite was a Home win at 54 % probability, and it proved correct as Fylkir edged Völsungur 3-1. The predicted most likely total of 3 goals materialised, with the 2-0 and 2-1 outcomes close behind in probability. The sole additional selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with 87.4 % confidence, matching the 3-goal finish. Overall, the model’s call and its suggested picks performed strongly, delivering a tidy post-match review.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Fylkir win✓ Hit
54.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Völsungur win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.30
2.65
1.35
1.92
1.23
vs Stronger (2)
3.00
1.50
3.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
2.27
1.27
2.71
1.29
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Völsungur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Völsungur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
3.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.70
1.62
2.50
1.36
2.93
vs Stronger (28)
1.54
2.71
1.67
2.53
1.38
2.92
vs Similar (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.1%
Under 2.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.5%
Under 3.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.7%
No
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.8%
3-1 ✓
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.0%
1-0
5.5%
3-0
4.9%
Fylkir goals ↓
Völsungur goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
3.2%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
1
5.5%
9.7%
6.0%
2.8%
0.9%
2
6.8%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.9%
6.7%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
4
2.6%
3.6%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Fylkir goals (down), columns = Völsungur goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Njardvik
2.25
Afturelding
2.00
IR Reykjavik
1.86
Throttur Reykjavik
1.86
HK Kopavogur
1.86
Fylkir
1.62
Völsungur
1.50
Grindavik
1.22
Grotta
1.14
Vestri
0.86
Leiknir R.
0.86
Ægir
0.00
Fylkir is 0.12 points better than Völsungur in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.71
HK Kopavogur
3.14
Fylkir
2.75
Njardvik
2.75
Throttur Reykjavik
2.14
Leiknir R.
1.86
Grotta
1.86
IR Reykjavik
1.71
Völsungur
1.38
Grindavik
1.22
Vestri
1.14
Ægir
0.67
Fylkir is 1.38 goals better than Völsungur in terms of goals scored per game (2.75 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.29
IR Reykjavik
1.43
Grotta
1.57
HK Kopavogur
1.71
Afturelding
1.86
Njardvik
1.88
Leiknir R.
2.00
Fylkir
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
Grindavik
2.11
Vestri
2.71
Ægir
4.17
Fylkir and Völsungur are level in goals conceded per game (both 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.41
0.53
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.15
0.62
1.36
0.57
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Völsungur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Völsungur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.27
0.75
1.19
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (28)
0.68
1.32
0.80
1.20
0.54
1.46
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.73
1.24
0.82
0.92
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.12
0.65
1.36
0.71
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Völsungur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Völsungur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
0.88
1.31
0.86
1.57
vs Stronger (28)
0.86
1.39
0.87
1.33
0.85
1.46
vs Similar (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Völsungur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (25)
€1m
AFT (23)
€1m
TR (20)
€1m
NJA (27)
€1m
FYL (21)
€1m
HK (20)
€1m
GRO (25)
€1m
LR (25)
€1m
IR (22)
€1m
VÖL (24)
€1m
ÆGI (29)
€0m
Fylkir and Völsungur have a similar squad value (both €1m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Njardvik
Afturelding
HK Kopavogur
Throttur Reykjavik
IR Reykjavik
Grindavik
Grotta
Leiknir R.
Vestri
Ægir