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Gagauziya-Oguzsport vs Speranța Drochia Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Vs
60%
23%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
Moldova: Liga 1
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gagauziya-Oguzsport win✓ Hit
60.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia win✗ Miss
16.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L31W12L20W34L11D00D10W00D11DA·SHE01/11H·SPE08/11A·SAX23/11H·FĂL29/11A·VUL07/12H·SHE07/03A·ISK14/03H·SPE28/03H·FCM06/04A·VUL12/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.571.871.001.002.13
vs Stronger (4)1.251.751.502.001.001.50
vs Similar (15)1.001.731.500.880.432.71
vs Weaker (11)2.091.272.600.801.671.67
Clean sheet %23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Speranța Drochia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-802L13L23L66D28L10W12L12L05L11DH·FC 02/11A·ISK09/11H·FCM23/11H·OLI30/11A·VIC07/12A·VUL07/03A·SPE15/03H·OLI29/03A·SHE04/04H·ISK11/04
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.701.432.431.002.94
vs Stronger (17)1.123.121.142.291.103.70
vs Similar (8)1.622.122.253.001.001.25
vs Weaker (5)0.802.201.002.000.502.50
Clean sheet %10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagauziya-Oguzsport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-0
10.6%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
1-0
9.8%
3-0
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.7%
Gagauziya-Oguzsport goals ↓
Speranța Drochia goals →
01234
06.5%4.1%2.4%0.8%0.2%
19.8%11%4.7%1.5%0.3%
211%9.9%4.6%1.4%0.3%
37.0%6.5%3.0%0.9%0.2%
43.4%3.2%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gagauziya-Oguzsport goals (down), columns = Speranța Drochia goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sheriff II
2.68
Victoria Bardar
2.27
Saxan
1.94
FC Stăuceni
1.73
FCM Ungheni
1.41
Făleşti
1.40
Iskra
1.36
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.27
Speranis Nisporeni
1.18
Olimp Comrat
1.14
Speranța Drochia
0.68
Vulturii Cutezători
0.50
Floreşti
0.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport is 0.59 points better than Speranța Drochia in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 0.68).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Victoria Bardar
3.40
Saxan
3.12
Sheriff II
2.95
FC Stăuceni
2.33
FCM Ungheni
2.14
Olimp Comrat
1.86
Iskra
1.55
Speranța Drochia
1.45
Făleşti
1.40
Speranis Nisporeni
1.32
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.32
Vulturii Cutezători
1.05
Floreşti
0.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport is 0.14 goals worse than Speranța Drochia in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.45).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff II
0.59
Saxan
1.12
Speranis Nisporeni
1.27
Victoria Bardar
1.40
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
1.45
FC Stăuceni
1.67
Iskra
1.82
Făleşti
2.07
FCM Ungheni
2.23
Speranța Drochia
2.59
Vulturii Cutezători
2.73
Olimp Comrat
2.91
Floreşti
19.00
Gagauziya-Oguzsport is 1.14 goals better than Speranța Drochia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 2.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D01L11D10W11D00D00D00D00D10WH·VUL25/10A·SHE01/11H·SPE08/11H·FĂL29/11A·VUL07/12H·SHE07/03A·ISK14/03H·SPE28/03H·FCM06/04A·VUL12/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.440.450.180.640.64
vs Stronger (2)2.000.00--2.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.330.670.330.170.331.17
vs Weaker (11)0.550.270.600.200.500.33
Clean sheet %68% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Speranța Drochia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D12L01L12L15L10W12L01L04L11DA·OLI18/10H·VIC26/10H·FC 02/11H·FCM23/11H·OLI30/11A·VUL07/03A·SPE15/03H·OLI29/03A·SHE04/04H·ISK11/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.361.410.381.460.331.33
vs Stronger (11)0.271.270.501.000.001.60
vs Similar (8)0.501.500.252.000.751.00
vs Weaker (3)0.331.670.331.67--
Clean sheet %27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagauziya-Oguzsport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gagauziya-Oguzsport over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagauziya-Oguzsport over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagauziya-Oguzsport over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W03L20W10W23L11D00D10W00D01LH·VUL25/10A·SHE01/11H·SPE08/11H·FĂL29/11A·VUL07/12H·SHE07/03A·ISK14/03H·SPE28/03H·FCM06/04A·VUL12/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.921.550.450.571.29
vs Stronger (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Similar (12)0.750.921.330.330.171.50
vs Weaker (11)1.451.001.800.601.171.33
Clean sheet %44% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Speranța Drochia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D02L01L11D51W00D00D11D01L00DA·OLI18/10H·VIC26/10H·FC 02/11H·FCM23/11H·OLI30/11A·VUL07/03A·SPE15/03H·OLI29/03A·SHE04/04H·ISK11/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.551.140.770.920.221.44
vs Stronger (11)0.091.730.001.170.202.40
vs Similar (8)1.120.622.001.000.250.25
vs Weaker (3)0.670.330.670.33--
Clean sheet %27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagauziya-Oguzsport) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gagauziya-Oguzsport over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagauziya-Oguzsport over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagauziya-Oguzsport over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Speranța Drochia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FU (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
3
GAG wins
0
Draws
0
SD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gagauziya-Oguzsport vs Speranța Drochia · H/A from GAG
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/24HGAG Vs Speranța Drochia2-1
03/05/24HGAG Vs Speranța Drochia7-0
06/04/24ASperanța Drochia Vs GAG0-3

Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/25AVulturii Cutezători Vs GAG1-1
06/04/25HGAG Vs FCM Ungheni0-0
28/03/25HGAG Vs Speranis Nisporeni1-0
14/03/25AIskra Vs GAG0-0
07/03/25HGAG Vs Sheriff II1-1
07/12/24AVulturii Cutezători Vs GAG4-3
29/11/24HGAG Vs Făleşti2-0
23/11/24ASaxan Vs GAG2-1
08/11/24HGAG Vs Speranis Nisporeni3-1
01/11/24ASheriff II Vs GAG4-0

Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/25HSD Vs Iskra1-1
04/04/25ASheriff II Vs SD5-0
29/03/25HSD Vs Olimp Comrat1-2
15/03/25ASperanis Nisporeni Vs SD2-1
07/03/25AVulturii Cutezători Vs SD0-1
07/12/24AVictoria Bardar Vs SD8-2
30/11/24HSD Vs Olimp Comrat6-6
23/11/24HSD Vs FCM Ungheni2-3
09/11/24AIskra Vs SD3-1
02/11/24HSD Vs FC Stăuceni0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Gagauziya-Oguzsport
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDD1.47
HomeWWDWD1.79
AwayLLLDD1.13
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%30%
AVG goals3.113.003.22
Over 1.5 %87%79%96%
Over 2.5 %66%58%74%
Over 3.5 %30%33%26%
Scored1.701.921.48
Conceded1.401.081.74
BTTS64%62%65%
Clean Sheet26%29%22%
Corners---
Cards---
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
Moldova: Liga 1
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD0.88
HomeLLDLD1.00
AwayLLWLL0.77
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%25%23%
AVG goals3.163.003.31
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %62%54%69%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.081.171.00
Conceded2.081.832.31
BTTS56%58%54%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sheriff IISheriff II2259
86%
2.7
6513+52
3.5
82%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.6
-
2Victoria BardarVictoria Bardar1534
73%
2.3
5121+30
4.8
87%
87%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.41.4
-
3SaxanSaxan1631
56%
1.9
5018+32
4.2
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.11.1
-
4FCM UngheniFCM Ungheni2231
41%
1.4
4749-2
4.4
91%
82%
68%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.2
-
5IskraIskra2230
36%
1.4
3440-6
3.4
77%
55%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
6Gagauziya-OguzsportGagauziya-Oguzsport2228
32%
1.3
2932-3
2.8
82%
55%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
7FC StăuceniFC Stăuceni1526
53%
1.7
3525+10
4.0
93%
67%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.7
-
8Speranis NisporeniSperanis Nisporeni2226
32%
1.2
2928+1
2.6
77%
50%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
9Olimp ComratOlimp Comrat2225
32%
1.1
4164-23
4.8
95%
91%
68%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.92.9
-
10FăleştiFăleşti1521
47%
1.4
2131-10
3.5
100%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.1
-
11Speranța DrochiaSperanța Drochia2215
18%
0.7
3257-25
4.0
91%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.6
-
12Vulturii CutezătoriVulturii Cutezători2211
14%
0.5
2360-37
3.8
82%
64%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
13FloreştiFloreşti10
0%
0.0
019-19
19.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.019.0
-
Moldova: Liga 1 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Liga 1 stats & trends →

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