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Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi Result & Analysis

Date: 05/04/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 0-4
Gagra
Gagra
Vs
33%
32%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Gagra win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi win✓ Hit
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

GagraGagra

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L12L10W11D11D12L00D12L02L20WA·TOR27/11H·SAB01/12A·DIN08/12A·SIO12/12H·SIO16/12H·TOR01/03H·DIL06/03A·DIN10/03H·SAM16/03A·KOL28/03
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.471.201.400.871.53
vs Stronger (18)0.831.500.891.560.781.44
vs Similar (10)1.401.401.601.201.201.60
vs Weaker (2)1.001.502.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L12L03L01L21W00D11D10W01LA·SAM09/11A·DIL23/11H·DIN27/11A·KOL01/12H·GAG08/12H·SAM06/03A·KOL10/03A·TEL15/03H·GAR28/03A·DIN01/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.231.361.210.621.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.641.570.861.430.431.71
vs Weaker (16)1.250.941.861.000.780.89
Clean sheet %20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%022%128%219%311%45%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.2%
Under 1.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.0%
Under 2.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.5%
Under 3.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.2%
No
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
12.7%
0-1
11.2%
1-0
10.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.5%
Gagra goals ↓
Dinamo Tbilisi goals →
01234
013%11%6.9%2.5%0.7%
111%15%7.4%2.7%0.7%
26.5%7.2%4.0%1.5%0.4%
32.3%2.6%1.4%0.5%0.1%
40.6%0.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gagra goals (down), columns = Dinamo Tbilisi goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Saburtalo
2.22
Dila
2.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.58
Spaeri
1.50
Gagra
1.19
Dinamo Batumi
1.19
Samgurali
1.17
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Gareji
0.97
Kolkheti Poti
0.61
Gagra is 0.39 points worse than Dinamo Tbilisi in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.58).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dila
1.75
Saburtalo
1.67
Spaeri
1.50
Samgurali
1.50
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.42
Gagra
1.22
Gareji
1.13
Dinamo Batumi
1.11
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.92
Gagra is 0.19 goals worse than Dinamo Tbilisi in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.42).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Saburtalo
0.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.14
Samgurali
1.47
Gareji
1.50
Gagra
1.53
Telavi
1.61
Dinamo Batumi
1.64
Kolkheti Poti
1.97
Gagra is 0.58 goals worse than Dinamo Tbilisi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.94).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

GagraGagra

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

GagraGagra

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (30)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (15)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (5)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (24)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (26)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GagraGagra

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D01L01L01L00D12L01L00DA·TOR27/11H·SAB01/12A·DIN08/12A·SIO12/12H·SIO16/12H·TOR01/03H·DIL06/03A·DIN10/03H·SAM16/03A·KOL28/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.530.730.470.400.60
vs Stronger (18)0.500.560.670.560.330.56
vs Similar (10)0.700.600.800.400.600.80
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D02L02L00D10W00D11D10W01LA·SAM09/11A·DIL23/11H·DIN27/11A·KOL01/12H·GAG08/12H·SAM06/03A·KOL10/03A·TEL15/03H·GAR28/03A·DIN01/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.730.500.640.380.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.360.930.570.860.141.00
vs Weaker (16)0.500.560.430.430.560.67
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GagraGagra

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L10W10W10W11D00D00D01L20WA·TOR27/11H·SAB01/12A·DIN08/12A·SIO12/12H·SIO16/12H·TOR01/03H·DIL06/03A·DIN10/03H·SAM16/03A·KOL28/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.930.470.930.470.93
vs Stronger (18)0.330.940.221.000.440.89
vs Similar (10)0.700.800.800.800.600.80
vs Weaker (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dinamo Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L10W01L01L11D00D00D00D00DA·SAM09/11A·DIL23/11H·DIN27/11A·KOL01/12H·GAG08/12H·SAM06/03A·KOL10/03A·TEL15/03H·GAR28/03A·DIN01/04
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.860.570.250.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.290.640.290.570.290.71
vs Weaker (16)0.750.381.430.570.220.22
Clean sheet %60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dinamo Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.582.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
Gagra's squad is €4m less valuable than Dinamo Tbilisi's (€3m vs €7m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
Gagra's attack is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Tbilisi's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
Gagra and Dinamo Tbilisi have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
KP (1)
€0m
Gagra's defence is €2m less valuable than Dinamo Tbilisi's (€1m vs €3m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
GAG wins
2
Draws
4
DT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi · H/A from GAG
DateH/AGameScore
08/12/24ADinamo Tbilisi Vs GAG0-1
01/10/24HGAG Vs Dinamo Tbilisi0-0
01/06/24ADinamo Tbilisi Vs GAG2-0
16/04/24HGAG Vs Dinamo Tbilisi0-2
21/10/23ADinamo Tbilisi Vs GAG0-1
13/08/23HGAG Vs Dinamo Tbilisi1-6
06/05/23ADinamo Tbilisi Vs GAG0-0
08/03/23HGAG Vs Dinamo Tbilisi3-5

GagraGagra

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/03/25AKolkheti Poti Vs GAG0-2
16/03/25HGAG Vs Samgurali0-2
10/03/25ADinamo Batumi Vs GAG2-1
06/03/25HGAG Vs Dila0-0
01/03/25HGAG Vs Torpedo Kutaisi1-2
16/12/24HGAG Vs Sioni1-1
12/12/24ASioni Vs GAG1-1
08/12/24ADinamo Tbilisi Vs GAG0-1
01/12/24HGAG Vs Saburtalo1-2
27/11/24ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs GAG2-0

Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/25ADinamo Batumi Vs DT1-0
28/03/25HDT Vs Gareji1-0
15/03/25ATelavi Vs DT1-1
10/03/25AKolkheti Poti Vs DT0-0
06/03/25HDT Vs Samgurali2-1
08/12/24HDT Vs Gagra0-1
01/12/24AKolkheti Poti Vs DT3-0
27/11/24HDT Vs Dinamo Batumi1-2
23/11/24ADila Vs DT1-0
09/11/24ASamtredia Vs DT1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gagra
Gagra
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.12
HomeLDLDL1.28
AwayLWDLW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals2.602.602.60
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %22%24%20%
Scored1.181.201.16
Conceded1.421.401.44
BTTS44%48%40%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWL1.28
HomeLLLWW1.60
AwayLLDDL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals2.342.602.08
Over 1.5 %68%68%68%
Over 2.5 %40%40%40%
Over 3.5 %20%24%16%
Scored1.201.600.80
Conceded1.141.001.28
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet32%32%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SaburtaloSaburtalo3680
67%
2.2
6024+36
2.3
67%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.70.7
-
2DilaDila3678
69%
2.2
6335+28
2.7
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.81.0
-
3Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3663
50%
1.8
6341+22
2.9
78%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.81.1
-
4Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3657
42%
1.6
5134+17
2.4
72%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3131.40.9
-
5GagraGagra3643
33%
1.2
4455-11
2.8
83%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.5
-
6Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3643
31%
1.2
4059-19
2.8
83%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.11.6
-
7SamguraliSamgurali3642
33%
1.2
5453+1
3.0
81%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.5
-
8TelaviTelavi3838
24%
1.0
3861-23
2.6
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
9GarejiGareji3837
21%
1.0
4357-14
2.6
71%
50%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
10Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti3622
14%
0.6
3371-38
2.9
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11SpaeriSpaeri23
50%
1.5
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12MeshakhteMeshakhte22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.0
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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