Defensive solidity will shape a tight, low-scoring encounter, with Gagra’s home form showing an average of 1.62 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded, while Meshakhte’s away record averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition. The model favours a Gagra victory, assigning a 48% chance to a home win, a 32% chance to a draw and a 20% chance to an away win. The expected total of 2.0 goals points to a modest tally, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Gagra, with a 16.4% probability. The model’s selection list includes Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Under 11.5 corners (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Under 10.5 corners (98.5%), Under 5.5 (98.5%), Under 9.5 corners (96.6%) and Away under 2.5 goals (96.5%). Both sides enter the match coming off a win, with Gagra’s last score 2-0 over Saburtalo and Meshakhte’s 2-0 over Torpedo Kutaisi.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gagra win
47.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte win
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gagra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.57
1.53
1.13
1.33
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
1.50
1.69
1.43
1.29
1.56
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.43
1.62
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.07
1.13
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.71
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.00
0.90
1.00
0.90
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.3%
Under 1.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.0%
Under 2.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.4%
Under 3.5
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
37.6%
No
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.2%
0-0
15.5%
1-1
13.9%
2-0
10.7%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
4.5%
3-0
4.4%
Gagra goals ↓
Meshakhte goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
9.0%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
11%
7.7%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
3
4.4%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
4
1.4%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gagra goals (down), columns = Meshakhte goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Gagra is 1.12 points better than Meshakhte in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Gagra is 0.38 goals better than Meshakhte in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Gagra is 0.88 goals better than Meshakhte in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Gagra is 3.5 percentage points worse than Meshakhte in terms of average possession (46% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gagra
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Meshakhte
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Gagra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (30)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (49)
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (10)
5.0
-
5.0
0.7
0.0
1.2
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
5.0
5.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
4%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
100%
96%
-
-
-
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.4%
Under 9.5
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
81.6%
Under 3.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gagra or Draw
79.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
32%
21%
covers Gagra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gagra or Meshakhte
67.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
32%
21%
covers Gagra + Meshakhte
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Meshakhte
52.9%
Avg Implied -
47%
32%
21%
covers Draw + Meshakhte
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gagra over/under 0.5
Over
70.8%
Under
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gagra, so a minus line means Gagra give that many goals of a start and Meshakhte receive them. At -1, Gagra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gagra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gagra)
Gagra -2
7.6%
Draw -2
14.3%
Meshakhte +2
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gagra)
Gagra -1
21.9%
Draw -1
25.2%
Meshakhte +1
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gagra)
Gagra +1
79.5%
Draw +1
14.3%
Meshakhte -1
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gagra)
Gagra +2
93.8%
Draw +2
4.9%
Meshakhte -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gagra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.75
0.86
0.43
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.33
0.47
0.33
0.40
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.86
0.00
1.33
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gagra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
0.87
0.73
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.94
0.57
0.86
0.89
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.86
1.12
0.62
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Gagra and Meshakhte have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Gagra and Meshakhte have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Gagra and Meshakhte have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Gagra and Meshakhte have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
Dila
Saburtalo
Torpedo Kutaisi
Spaeri