The model projects a high-scoring affair with an average of 3.2 goals, and the most likely total is three. A 1-1 draw is the single scoreline the model deems most probable, with a 11.2% chance. Home side Gagra, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.78 goals scored and 1.89 conceded. Away side Saburtalo, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model favours an away win, assigning 49% to a Saburtalo victory, 26% to a Gagra win, and 25% to a draw. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.7% probability. The recent form narrative shows Gagra coming off a win, while Saburtalo has endured four straight defeats. All selections are listed: Home win 26%, Draw 25%, Away win 49%, Over 1.583.7%.
Results analysis
The win extends Gagra’s recent form, but Saburtalo’s away run, after four straight defeats, proved decisive. The final score was 1-2, confirming the away win that the model predicted. The model’s favourite, “Away win”, was chosen with a 49% probability and was correct. Its selection for “Over 1.5” came in, hit with an 83.7% probability. All other suggested picks were settled, and the outcome matched the model’s expectations. The match delivered the predicted result and the key selections, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gagra win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo win✓ Hit
48.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gagra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.50
1.20
1.53
0.60
1.47
vs Stronger (18)
0.67
1.78
0.78
1.89
0.56
1.67
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.09
1.83
1.00
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.43
1.73
1.33
1.73
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.84
1.22
1.89
1.50
1.80
vs Weaker (11)
2.36
0.73
2.50
0.50
2.20
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.6%
Under 2.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.3%
Under 3.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.0%
No
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
1-2 ✓
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-1
6.8%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
5.2%
Gagra goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
6.7%
7.2%
4.4%
2.1%
1
4.5%
11%
9.5%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.6%
6.8%
6.3%
3.9%
1.8%
3
1.6%
3.0%
2.8%
1.7%
0.8%
4
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gagra goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Gagra is 0.36 points worse than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Gagra is 0.31 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Gagra is 0.44 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gagra
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Saburtalo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Gagra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (30)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.5
11.0
0.4
0.4
0.4
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
11.0
9.0
5.5
5.0
6.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
10.5
8.0
13.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
8%
8%
8%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
50%
50%
92%
92%
92%
-
-
-
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Saburtalo
10.2
Dinamo Tbilisi
8.0
Dinamo Batumi
7.5
Dila
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dila
5.5
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.7
Dinamo Tbilisi
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dinamo Batumi
27.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gagra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.53
0.67
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (18)
0.17
1.00
0.22
0.89
0.11
1.11
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
1.00
0.33
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.93
0.67
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.79
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.27
1.33
0.17
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gagra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.67
0.87
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (18)
0.50
0.78
0.56
1.00
0.44
0.56
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.55
0.83
0.67
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.83
0.80
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
1.05
0.56
0.89
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.45
1.17
0.33
1.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Gagra's squad is €4m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Gagra's attack is €2m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Gagra's midfield is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Gagra's defence is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Torpedo Kutaisi
Dila
Samgurali
Telavi
Samtredia
Shukura
Gareji
Spaeri