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Gagra vs Saburtalo Result & Analysis

Date: 31/08/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Gagra
Gagra
Vs
23%
25%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Gagra face Saburtalo in a match the model deems most likely to end in an away win, with a 51% chance of victory for Saburtalo, 25% for a draw and 23% for a home win. The expected total goals hover near three, with the model predicting an average of 2.9 goals and the most probable total of two goals at 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.9% probability, a tidy draw that reflects the balanced nature of the contest.

Gagra, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Saburtalo, on the road against a weaker side, nets 1.75 goals and concedes only 0.25. Saburtalo’s recent form, after three straight defeats, still shows a resilient attack, whereas Gagra’s five-game run of losses and a 0-3 defeat to Rustavi suggest a cautious approach.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (92.7%), Under 5.5 (92.1%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (91.1%). Each of these carries its own probability, with no additional edge indicated.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Saburtalo, missed the mark as Gagra secured a 2-0 victory, extending their recent win streak. The model had picked an away win with a 51% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals (98.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (92.7%), Under 5.5 (92.1%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (91.1%). The final score of 2-0 matched the home win, confirming the upset and the model’s selection accuracy on all other picks.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gagra win✓ Hit
23.2%
Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.34
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.64
Betfair
4.40
10Bet
4.40
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.39
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
1xBet
3.44
Dafabet
3.40
Saburtalo win✗ Miss
51.5%
Avg Implied 52.6% · @ 1.72
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Dafabet
1.78
William Hil
1.75
Betfair
1.70

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GagraGagra

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W12L12L21W21W11D00D22D11D03LH·GAR25/11H·TEL01/12A·SAB06/12A·TOR28/05H·DIN14/06A·MES18/06H·SAM24/06A·DIN08/08H·SPA17/08A·RUS22/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.601.471.201.332.00
vs Stronger (15)1.471.801.331.501.562.00
vs Similar (15)1.331.401.561.001.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D12L21W11D00D11D34L04L12LH·DIN29/05H·SPA12/06H·RUS17/06H·MES23/06A·SLO29/07A·LAR04/08H·LAR11/08A·TOR15/08A·JAG20/08H·JAG27/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.071.191.001.791.14
vs Stronger (3)0.672.331.002.000.502.50
vs Similar (17)1.530.941.000.672.121.25
vs Weaker (10)1.600.901.501.331.750.25
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
@ 1.27+9.0%
Under 1.5
19.7%
@ 3.16-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Under
Superbet
3.20
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.14
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.4%
@ 1.90+8.1%
Under 2.5
43.6%
@ 1.78-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Under
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.1%
@ 3.13+5.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
@ 1.27-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.14
Marathonbet
3.14
Superbet
3.10
Under
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.0%
@ 1.80+7.3%
No
42.0%
@ 1.85-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
William Hil
1.75
No
Superbet
1.90
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%@ 6.06+5.1%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.51+4.2%
0-2
8.5%@ 7.26+2.8%
0-1
8.4%@ 5.97+1.4%
0-0
6.3%@ 8.51+1.5%
2-1
6.2%@ 13.04+3.1%
1-3
5.8%@ 12.18+2.4%
2-2
5.6%@ 13.54+2.5%
Gagra goals ↓
Saburtalo goals →
01234
06.3%8.4%8.5%5.1%2.3%
15.0%12%9.8%5.8%2.6%
23.5%6.2%5.6%3.4%1.5%
31.3%2.4%2.1%1.3%0.6%
40.4%0.7%0.6%0.4%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gagra goals (down), columns = Saburtalo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Gagra is 0.46 points better than Saburtalo in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Gagra is 0.08 goals worse than Saburtalo in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Gagra is 0.54 goals better than Saburtalo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Gagra is 9.0 percentage points worse than Saburtalo in terms of average possession (46% vs 55%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

GagraGagra

For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0

🚩 Corners

50145A·MES
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0

🟨 Cards

30123A·MES
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

For 5.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 7.8

🚩 Corners

120316411132410125H·JAGA·JAGH·LARH·MES
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

7015143125216737H·JAGA·JAGH·LARA·LARH·MES
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 17.3 · Total 30.0

⚠️ Fouls

460351620192783646H·JAGA·JAGH·LAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

GagraGagra

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)5.0-5.00.10.00.1---
vs Stronger (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (22)5.0-5.00.10.00.3---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line0%-0%0%0%0%---
% under line100%-100%100%100%100%---
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)7.87.010.00.50.60.430.027.036.0
vs Stronger (3)7.04.010.02.31.03.022.08.036.0
vs Similar (29)12.012.0-0.30.50.246.046.0-
vs Weaker (18)5.05.0-0.40.70.0---
% over line50%33%100%6%8%4%67%50%100%
% under line50%67%0%94%92%96%33%50%0%
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.1%
@ 2.14-39.9%
Under 9.5
96.9%
@ 1.62+39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Under
1xBet
1.62
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.3%
Under 3.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gagra or Draw✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied 46.6% · @ 1.96
Edge
+1.9%
23%
25%
51%
covers Gagra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.15
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Gagra or Saburtalo✓ Hit
74.7%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
+0.9%
23%
25%
51%
covers Gagra + Saburtalo
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Draw or Saburtalo✗ Miss
76.8%
Avg Implied 79.7% · @ 1.15
Edge
-2.8%
23%
25%
51%
covers Draw + Saburtalo
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.12

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gagra over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.3%
@ 1.55+9.6%
Under
31.7%
@ 2.20-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Under
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Gagra over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.9%
@ 3.58+6.2%
Under
68.1%
@ 1.24-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Gagra over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 9.00-89.1%
Under
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
83.4%
@ 1.15+3.8%
Under
16.6%
@ 4.50-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.50
Saburtalo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
53.6%
@ 1.82+3.2%
Under
46.4%
@ 1.85-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.85
Saburtalo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.9%
@ 3.51+0.8%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.24-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.42
Under
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Saburtalo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 6.80-2.7%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
Under
1xBet
1.06

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Gagra, so a minus line means Gagra give that many goals of a start and Saburtalo receive them. At -1, Gagra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gagra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gagra)Actual: Draw
Gagra -2
2.9%
Draw -2
6.6%
Saburtalo +2
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gagra)Actual: Gagra
Gagra -1
9.4%
@ 7.10-1.7%
Draw -1
13.7%
@ 4.40-4.3%
Saburtalo +1
76.8%
@ 1.12+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap +1 (Gagra)Actual: Gagra
Gagra +1
48.5%
@ 2.01+4.4%
Draw +1
22.1%
@ 3.40-4.0%
Saburtalo -1
29.4%
@ 2.97-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Draw
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Away
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.81
Handicap +2 (Gagra)Actual: Gagra
Gagra +2
70.6%
@ 1.33+4.9%
Draw +2
16.1%
@ 4.80-2.1%
Saburtalo -2
13.3%
@ 5.45-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.33
Draw
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Marathonbet
5.45

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GagraGagra

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D01L21W20W00D00D02L00D00DH·GAR25/11H·TEL01/12A·SAB06/12A·TOR28/05H·DIN14/06A·MES18/06H·SAM24/06A·DIN08/08H·SPA17/08A·RUS22/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.670.470.470.93
vs Stronger (15)0.730.800.830.500.671.00
vs Similar (15)0.400.600.560.440.170.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W10W00D01L00D00D13L02L11DH·DIN29/05H·SPA12/06H·RUS17/06H·MES23/06A·SLO29/07A·LAR04/08H·LAR11/08A·TOR15/08A·JAG20/08H·JAG27/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.430.620.190.790.71
vs Stronger (3)0.331.331.001.000.001.50
vs Similar (17)0.710.350.560.000.880.75
vs Weaker (10)0.800.300.670.331.000.25
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.7%
@ 1.38+4.5%
Under 0.5
29.3%
@ 2.70-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Under
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.63
1xBet
2.63
Betano
2.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.3%
@ 2.73+2.9%
Under 1.5
63.7%
@ 1.37-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.75
1xBet
2.75
William Hil
2.70
10Bet
2.55
Under
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.8%
@ 6.73+0.0%
Under 2.5
86.2%
@ 1.07-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Betfair
6.50
Under
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.06

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.6%
@ 2.63+6.7%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.41-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.67
1xBet
2.60
Under
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.38
Gagra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 9.90+0.8%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.01-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.80
Under
1xBet
1.01
Gagra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
52.8%
@ 1.75+0.2%
Under
47.2%
@ 1.94-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.91
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.5%
@ 4.70+0.1%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.14-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Under
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GagraGagra

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W01L11D00D01L11D00D20W11D03LH·GAR25/11H·TEL01/12A·SAB06/12A·TOR28/05H·DIN14/06A·MES18/06H·SAM24/06A·DIN08/08H·SPA17/08A·RUS22/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.900.800.730.871.07
vs Stronger (15)0.731.000.501.000.891.00
vs Similar (15)0.930.801.000.560.831.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L21W10W00D11D21W02L01LH·DIN29/05H·SPA12/06H·RUS17/06H·MES23/06A·SLO29/07A·LAR04/08H·LAR11/08A·TOR15/08A·JAG20/08H·JAG27/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.560.811.000.43
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.001.000.501.00
vs Similar (17)0.820.590.440.671.250.50
vs Weaker (10)0.800.600.831.000.750.00
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.6%
@ 1.24+7.1%
Under 0.5
18.4%
@ 3.60-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.80
William Hil
3.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.6%
@ 2.10+5.9%
Under 1.5
50.4%
@ 1.63-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.15
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Under
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
William Hil
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.3%
@ 4.60+3.3%
Under 2.5
76.7%
@ 1.16-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
1xBet
4.40
Under
1xBet
1.16
William Hil
1.15

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.7%
@ 2.21+5.2%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.57-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.54
Gagra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 7.45+2.2%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.04-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Under
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Gagra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
57.9%
@ 1.53-2.5%
Under
42.1%
@ 2.34+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.53
Under
1xBet
2.34
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.2%
@ 3.42-1.5%
Under
74.8%
@ 1.25+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
Under
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 9.90-0.4%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.01+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
Under
1xBet
1.01

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.598.9%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals97.8%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals97.2%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals97.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.596.9%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals92.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.592.1%1.02
1xBet
1.02
-----1.5%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals91.1%1.01
1xBet
1.01
----+0.4%✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap90.6%-------✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals90.0%1.01
1xBet
1.01
-----0.8%✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals89.2%1.06
1xBet
1.06
----+2.7%✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals89.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards86.8%--------
Under 2.5 HT goals86.2%1.07
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
1xBet
1.06
---0.0%✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals85.5%1.04
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
----2.2%✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals83.4%1.15
1xBet
1.15
----+3.8%✗ Miss
Under 4.582.4%1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
----2.1%✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals81.6%1.24
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.22
---+7.1%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals80.5%1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
----0.1%✓ Hit
Over 1.580.3%1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
--+9.0%✓ Hit
Draw or Away76.8%1.15
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.12
-2.8%✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap76.8%1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
----+6.0%✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals76.7%1.16
1xBet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
----3.3%✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals74.8%1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
---+1.5%✓ Hit
Home or Away74.7%1.24
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
+0.9%✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals73.1%1.24
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
----0.8%✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards72.3%--------
Over 0.5 HT goals70.7%1.38
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
William Hil
1.35
+4.5%✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap70.6%1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
----+4.9%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Gagra's squad is €4m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€3m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Gagra's attack is €2m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Gagra's midfield is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Gagra's defence is €1m less valuable than Saburtalo's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
GAG wins
1
Draws
6
SAB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gagra vs Saburtalo · H/A from GAG
DateH/AGameScore
06/12/25ASaburtalo Vs GAG2-1
03/10/25HGAG Vs Saburtalo1-3
29/05/25ASaburtalo Vs GAG3-1
19/04/25HGAG Vs Saburtalo0-1
01/12/24HGAG Vs Saburtalo1-2
26/09/24ASaburtalo Vs GAG1-1
28/05/24HGAG Vs Saburtalo4-0
11/04/24ASaburtalo Vs GAG3-1

GagraGagra

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/26ARustavi Vs GAG3-0
17/08/26HGAG Vs Spaeri1-1
08/08/26ADinamo Batumi Vs GAG2-2
24/06/26HGAG Vs Samgurali0-0
18/06/26AMeshakhte Vs GAG1-1
14/06/26HGAG Vs Dinamo Tbilisi2-1
28/05/26ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs GAG1-2
06/12/25ASaburtalo Vs GAG2-1
01/12/25HGAG Vs Telavi1-2
25/11/25HGAG Vs Gareji4-1

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/26HSAB Vs Jagiellonia1-2
20/08/26AJagiellonia Vs SAB4-0
15/08/26ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs SAB4-3
11/08/26HSAB Vs Larne1-1
04/08/26ALarne Vs SAB0-0
29/07/26ASlovan Bratislava Vs SAB1-1
23/06/26HSAB Vs Meshakhte2-1
17/06/26HSAB Vs Rustavi1-2
12/06/26HSAB Vs Spaeri1-1
29/05/26HSAB Vs Dinamo Batumi1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gagra
Gagra
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDDL1.22
HomeWLWDD1.08
AwayLWDDL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%25%38%
AVG goals2.682.462.88
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored1.201.171.23
Conceded1.481.291.65
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners5.00-5.00
Cards3.00-3.00
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLL1.86
HomeDLWDL1.96
AwayWDDLL1.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%58%50%
AVG goals2.462.352.58
Over 1.5 %70%77%62%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %26%15%38%
Scored1.501.461.54
Conceded0.960.881.04
BTTS50%58%42%
Clean Sheet44%38%50%
Corners7.757.0010.00
Cards4.805.004.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RustaviRustavi819
75%
2.4
136+7
2.4
75%
62%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.60.8
-
2Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi816
62%
2.0
179+8
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.11.1
-
3Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi715
71%
2.1
1812+6
4.3
100%
100%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3132.61.7
-
4SamguraliSamgurali814
50%
1.8
1517-2
4.0
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.92.1
-
5GagraGagra813
38%
1.6
109+1
2.4
88%
50%
12%
5.0
0%
3.0
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.1
46%
6DilaDila710
43%
1.4
1612+4
4.0
100%
100%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.31.7
-
7SaburtaloSaburtalo67
33%
1.2
810-2
3.0
83%
50%
17%
5.0
0%
7.0
100%
-
0%
6
3221.31.7
55%
8Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi85
12%
0.6
1015-5
3.1
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.21.9
-
9MeshakhteMeshakhte84
12%
0.5
716-9
2.9
75%
50%
25%
5.0
0%
5.0
50%
-
0%
2
1110.92.0
50%
10SpaeriSpaeri83
0%
0.4
816-8
3.0
88%
62%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.02.0
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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