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Gagra vs Samgurali Result & Analysis

Date: 26/02/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 3-4
Gagra
Gagra
Vs
33%
28%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Samgurali
Samgurali
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Gagra win✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samgurali win✓ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

GagraGagra

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L20W01L11D21W10W14L12L20W02LA·SAB08/10H·LOK15/10A·TEL23/10H·SAM30/10H·SIO04/11A·TOR11/11H·DIN26/11A·DIN03/12H·SPA08/12A·SPA12/12
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.501.251.440.571.57
vs Stronger (19)0.681.680.901.600.441.78
vs Similar (11)1.361.181.831.170.801.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L03L41W20W21W11D22D21W11D03LH·DIL17/09H·SAB01/10A·LOK09/10H·TEL15/10H·SIO23/10A·GAG30/10H·TOR06/11A·DIN12/11H·DIN26/11A·DIL03/12
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.231.801.071.401.40
vs Stronger (17)1.351.651.561.111.122.25
vs Similar (13)1.920.692.171.001.710.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
5.6%
Gagra goals ↓
Samgurali goals →
01234
08.2%8.5%6.8%3.2%1.1%
17.6%14%8.6%4.0%1.4%
25.6%7.8%5.5%2.6%0.9%
32.4%3.3%2.3%1.1%0.4%
40.7%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gagra goals (down), columns = Samgurali goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dinamo Batumi
2.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.97
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.67
Dila
1.67
Samgurali
1.58
Gareji
1.50
Saburtalo
1.42
Telavi
1.08
Gagra
1.06
Samtredia
0.95
Spaeri
0.50
Shukura
0.47
Gagra is 0.53 points worse than Samgurali in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.58).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.58
Dinamo Batumi
2.31
Gareji
2.00
Saburtalo
1.61
Dila
1.56
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.53
Samgurali
1.47
Samtredia
1.45
Gagra
1.31
Shukura
1.06
Telavi
1.03
Spaeri
0.50
Gagra is 0.17 goals worse than Samgurali in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.47).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.03
Dila
1.08
Dinamo Batumi
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.36
Saburtalo
1.36
Samgurali
1.42
Telavi
1.66
Samtredia
1.74
Gagra
1.81
Gareji
2.50
Spaeri
2.50
Shukura
3.11
Gagra is 0.39 goals worse than Samgurali in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.42).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

GagraGagra

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SamguraliSamgurali

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

GagraGagra

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (38)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (24)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (14)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (36)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (20)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (16)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Saburtalo
10.2
Dinamo Tbilisi
8.0
Dinamo Batumi
7.5
Dila
7.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Dila
5.5
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.7
Dinamo Tbilisi
4.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dinamo Batumi
27.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GagraGagra

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W01L00D10W00D02L01L10W01LA·SAB08/10H·LOK15/10A·TEL23/10H·SAM30/10H·SIO04/11A·TOR11/11H·DIN26/11A·DIN03/12H·SPA08/12A·SPA12/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.600.440.560.210.64
vs Stronger (19)0.110.580.200.600.000.56
vs Similar (11)0.730.640.830.500.600.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L02L21W00D01L00D11D10W10W01LH·DIL17/09H·SAB01/10A·LOK09/10H·TEL15/10H·SIO23/10A·GAG30/10H·TOR06/11A·DIN12/11H·DIN26/11A·DIL03/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.730.600.800.67
vs Stronger (17)0.590.880.560.670.621.12
vs Similar (13)1.000.311.000.501.000.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GagraGagra

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D11D11D10W12L11D10W01LA·SAB08/10H·LOK15/10A·TEL23/10H·SAM30/10H·SIO04/11A·TOR11/11H·DIN26/11A·DIN03/12H·SPA08/12A·SPA12/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.810.880.360.93
vs Stronger (19)0.581.110.701.000.441.22
vs Similar (11)0.640.551.000.670.200.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamguraliSamgurali

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L20W20W20W11D11D11D01L02LH·DIL17/09H·SAB01/10A·LOK09/10H·TEL15/10H·SIO23/10A·GAG30/10H·TOR06/11A·DIN12/11H·DIN26/11A·DIL03/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.601.070.470.600.73
vs Stronger (17)0.760.761.000.440.501.12
vs Similar (13)0.920.381.170.500.710.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
Gagra and Samgurali have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
Gagra and Samgurali have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Gagra and Samgurali have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
Gagra and Samgurali have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
GAG wins
3
Draws
1
SAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gagra vs Samgurali · H/A from GAG
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/22HGAG Vs Samgurali1-1
27/08/22ASamgurali Vs GAG2-2
17/05/22HGAG Vs Samgurali0-2
14/04/22ASamgurali Vs GAG1-1

GagraGagra

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/12/22ASpaeri Vs GAG2-0
08/12/22HGAG Vs Spaeri2-0
03/12/22ADinamo Tbilisi Vs GAG2-1
26/11/22HGAG Vs Dinamo Batumi1-4
11/11/22ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs GAG0-1
04/11/22HGAG Vs Sioni2-1
30/10/22HGAG Vs Samgurali1-1
23/10/22ATelavi Vs GAG1-0
15/10/22HGAG Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi2-0
08/10/22ASaburtalo Vs GAG2-1

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/22ADila Vs SAM3-0
26/11/22HSAM Vs Dinamo Tbilisi1-1
12/11/22ADinamo Batumi Vs SAM1-2
06/11/22HSAM Vs Torpedo Kutaisi2-2
30/10/22AGagra Vs SAM1-1
23/10/22HSAM Vs Sioni2-1
15/10/22HSAM Vs Telavi2-0
09/10/22ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs SAM1-4
01/10/22HSAM Vs Saburtalo0-3
17/09/22HSAM Vs Dila0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gagra
Gagra
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL1.03
HomeWDWLW1.37
AwayLLWLL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%37%16%
AVG goals2.552.632.47
Over 1.5 %74%74%74%
Over 2.5 %39%37%42%
Over 3.5 %18%21%16%
Scored1.001.210.79
Conceded1.551.421.68
BTTS42%42%42%
Clean Sheet26%32%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Samgurali
Samgurali
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWDL1.58
HomeLWWDD1.83
AwayLWDWL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%33%
AVG goals2.752.892.61
Over 1.5 %86%94%78%
Over 2.5 %58%72%44%
Over 3.5 %22%22%22%
Scored1.531.721.33
Conceded1.221.171.28
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet33%28%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3674
58%
2.1
8341+42
3.4
94%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.31.1
-
2Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3671
58%
2.0
9349+44
3.9
92%
81%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3132.61.4
-
3Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3660
44%
1.7
5537+18
2.6
67%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.51.0
-
4DilaDila3660
47%
1.7
5639+17
2.6
72%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.61.1
-
5SamguraliSamgurali3657
44%
1.6
5351+2
2.9
72%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.4
-
6SaburtaloSaburtalo3651
39%
1.4
5849+9
3.0
78%
72%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.61.4
-
7TelaviTelavi3841
29%
1.1
3963-24
2.7
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
8GagraGagra3638
28%
1.1
4765-18
3.1
64%
56%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
9SamtrediaSamtredia3836
26%
0.9
5566-11
3.2
82%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
10ShukuraShukura3617
11%
0.5
38112-74
4.2
89%
75%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.13.1
-
11GarejiGareji23
50%
1.5
45-1
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.5
-
12SpaeriSpaeri21
0%
0.5
15-4
3.0
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.52.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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