Gagra vs Spaeri Result & Analysis

Gagra are expected to emerge victorious in this encounter against Spaeri. The recent form of both teams tells a story, as Gagra have been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, while Spaeri are coming off a defeat. However, the home side's performance at home is worth noting, they have scored an average of 1.45 goals against stronger opponents, but conceded 1.09 goals on average.

In terms of probabilities, Gagra have a 51% chance of winning, Spaeri a 20% chance, and the draw 29%. The model predicts a home win, with an expected total of 2.3 goals and most likely a 2-goal match. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability.

Gagra's away form is not directly relevant, but Spaeri's away form shows they score an average of 1.25 goals against weaker opponents, while conceding 0.25 goals. The model's selection is Under 3.5, with an 80.6% probability. Gagra have a 51% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 20% chance of losing. The model also suggests a 13.9% chance of a 1-0 home win, a 13.4% chance of a 1-1 draw, and an 11.6% chance of a 0-0 draw.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 52 % probability, failed to deliver, the game ending in a 1-1 draw. Gagra’s recent form, a string of losses, had them looking fragile, while Spaeri also entered from defeat. The model’s selection of Away under 3.5 goals (99.1 %) proved correct, as did Away under 2.5 goals (95.2 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (93.8 %). The Home +2 handicap pick (93.7 %) also hit, confirming the low-scoring nature of the match. Overall, the model’s favourite was wrong, but its other picks all performed as expected.