The contest is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 32% and 39% respectively, while a draw is 29%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high-scoring game, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, 26% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.7% chance. Gagra, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Torpedo Kutaisi, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners (99.5%), Under 7.5 goals (99.4%), Under 10.5 corners (98.6%), Under 6.5 goals (98.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%), Under 9.5 corners (96.8%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4%). These selections reflect the model’s confidence in a low-corner, low-goal affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gagra win
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi win
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gagra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.57
1.53
1.13
1.33
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
1.50
1.69
1.43
1.29
1.56
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.43
1.62
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.50
2.19
1.62
1.64
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.72
1.61
2.33
2.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (12)
2.25
1.33
2.00
1.14
2.60
1.60
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
8.8%
1-2
8.6%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
7.0%
2-0
5.6%
Gagra goals ↓
Torpedo Kutaisi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
8.8%
7.0%
3.2%
1.1%
1
7.7%
14%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.6%
7.7%
5.3%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.3%
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gagra goals (down), columns = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Gagra is 1.00 points better than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Gagra and Torpedo Kutaisi are level in goals scored per game (both 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Gagra is 0.75 goals better than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Gagra
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Torpedo Kutaisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Gagra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (30)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.2%
Under 9.5
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.8%
Under 3.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gagra or Draw
60.9%
Avg Implied -
32%
29%
39%
covers Gagra + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gagra or Torpedo Kutaisi
71.3%
Avg Implied -
32%
29%
39%
covers Gagra + Torpedo Kutaisi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Torpedo Kutaisi
67.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
29%
39%
covers Draw + Torpedo Kutaisi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gagra over/under 0.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gagra, so a minus line means Gagra give that many goals of a start and Torpedo Kutaisi receive them. At -1, Gagra must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gagra win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gagra)
Gagra -2
4.7%
Draw -2
9.5%
Torpedo Kutaisi +2
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Gagra)
Gagra -1
14.2%
Draw -1
18.0%
Torpedo Kutaisi +1
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Gagra)
Gagra +1
60.9%
Draw +1
20.3%
Torpedo Kutaisi -1
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Gagra)
Gagra +2
81.2%
Draw +2
11.9%
Torpedo Kutaisi -2
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gagra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.75
0.86
0.43
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.19
0.69
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.72
1.33
0.89
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.58
1.00
0.43
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.3%
Under 0.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.7%
Under 1.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.0%
Under 2.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gagra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
0.87
0.73
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.94
0.57
0.86
0.89
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.86
1.12
0.62
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.83
1.00
0.94
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.89
1.00
1.11
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.75
1.00
0.71
2.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.2%
Under 0.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.0%
Under 1.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.1%
Under
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 11.5 corners
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Gagra's squad is €4m less valuable than Torpedo Kutaisi's (€3m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Gagra's attack is €2m less valuable than Torpedo Kutaisi's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Gagra's midfield is €2m less valuable than Torpedo Kutaisi's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Gagra's defence is €1m less valuable than Torpedo Kutaisi's (€1m vs €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →