Galway United’s attacking and defensive averages of 1.57 goals each suggest a lively contest, while Waterford’s 1.54 scored and 2.62 conceded at home hint at a more porous defense. The model projects a 47 % chance of a Galway win, 22 % for a draw, and 31 % for a Waterford victory, making a home win the clear favourite. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 8.6 % probability. The most probable total goals is three, at 20 %. Galway’s recent unbeaten run (WDDDW) and Waterford’s also unbeaten streak (DWWDD) set the tone. Suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 90.4 %, Over 2.5 cards at 77.9 %, Under 5.5 cards at 76.6 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 74.4 %, Over 2.5 goals at 73.7 %, BTTS Yes at 73.0 %, and Over 19.5 fouls at 72.8 %. The model’s pick is a Galway win, with the probabilities for a draw and a Waterford win at 22 % and 31 % respectively.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Galway United, fell short as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call incorrect. Galway’s unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 2-1 win over Dundalk, was halted, while Waterford also remained unbeaten with a 0-0 draw against Sligo Rovers. The model had given Galway a 47 % chance of victory, 22 % for a draw and 31 % for Waterford. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 1.5 goals (90.4 %) missed, Over 2.5 cards (77.9 %) hit, Under 5.5 cards (76.6 %) missed, Under 25.5 fouls (74.4 %) missed, Over 2.5 (73.7 %) missed, BTTS Yes (73.0 %) missed and Over 19.5 fouls (72.8 %) hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Galway United win✗ Miss
46.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Waterford win✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Galway United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.50
1.60
1.53
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.28
1.52
1.57
1.57
1.00
1.47
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.80
1.27
1.20
1.47
2.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.46
1.88
1.38
1.15
1.54
2.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
90.4%
Under 1.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.7%
Under 2.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 3.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
73.0%
No
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
7.1%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
5.9%
3-2
5.1%
2-0
4.9%
2-3
4.1%
Galway United goals ↓
Waterford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
2.9%
3.2%
1.8%
0.8%
1
3.8%
8.6%
6.7%
3.8%
1.7%
2
4.9%
8.3%
7.1%
4.1%
1.8%
3
3.4%
5.9%
5.1%
2.9%
1.2%
4
1.8%
3.1%
2.7%
1.5%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Galway United goals (down), columns = Waterford goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.79
Bohemians
1.68
Dundalk
1.32
Shelbourne
1.31
Galway United
1.22
Derry City
1.18
Waterford
1.04
Drogheda United
1.00
Sligo Rovers
0.82
Galway United is 0.19 points better than Waterford in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.68
St Patrick's Athl.
1.61
Shamrock Rovers
1.59
Dundalk
1.54
Shelbourne
1.38
Derry City
1.36
Waterford
1.32
Galway United
1.30
Drogheda United
1.11
Sligo Rovers
0.82
Galway United is 0.03 goals worse than Waterford in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.82
Shamrock Rovers
0.89
Bohemians
1.21
Derry City
1.32
Shelbourne
1.46
Galway United
1.52
Dundalk
1.54
Sligo Rovers
1.61
Drogheda United
1.61
Waterford
1.71
Galway United is 0.20 goals better than Waterford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.52 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
63%
Bohemians
58%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
47%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
39%
Waterford
39%
Galway United is 0.3 percentage points better than Waterford in terms of average possession (39% vs 39%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Galway United
For 4.6 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 10.3 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
For 5.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 9.1 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Galway United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.7
10.2
4.5
4.7
4.3
22.8
23.7
21.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
10.5
11.0
10.1
4.4
4.7
4.2
22.2
23.0
21.4
vs Weaker (3)
8.3
7.0
11.0
5.7
5.0
7.0
31.3
30.5
33.0
% over line
59%
62%
56%
66%
76%
56%
61%
67%
56%
% under line
41%
38%
44%
34%
24%
44%
39%
33%
44%
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.7
9.9
4.6
5.1
4.1
22.5
22.9
22.1
vs Stronger (6)
7.4
8.0
6.5
3.3
3.2
3.5
19.8
19.7
20.0
vs Similar (41)
11.1
12.2
10.0
5.0
5.4
4.5
22.8
23.4
22.3
vs Weaker (3)
14.0
12.0
16.0
2.3
6.0
0.5
22.5
23.0
22.0
% over line
54%
58%
50%
66%
72%
60%
67%
71%
62%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
34%
28%
40%
33%
29%
38%
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
11.1
Waterford
11.0
Dundalk
10.4
Galway United
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.2
Drogheda United
10.2
Bohemians
9.9
Shelbourne
9.5
Derry City
9.3
Shamrock Rovers
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.3
Dundalk
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
Shelbourne
4.9
Waterford
4.9
Bohemians
4.8
Galway United
4.6
Drogheda United
4.5
Sligo Rovers
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
23.1
Bohemians
23.0
Derry City
23.0
St Patrick's Athl.
22.9
Galway United
22.8
Waterford
22.7
Shamrock Rovers
22.1
Shelbourne
21.5
Drogheda United
21.4
Sligo Rovers
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.9%
Under 9.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.9%
Under 3.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.9%
Under 21.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Galway United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.45
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.40
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.40
0.80
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.96
0.46
0.85
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Galway United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Galway United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.00
0.93
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.83
0.90
1.07
1.00
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.87
0.40
0.60
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.92
0.92
0.31
0.62
1.54
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Galway United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Galway United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Galway United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (21)
€5m
DC (21)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Galway United and Waterford have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Galway United and Waterford have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Galway United and Waterford have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
SPA (8)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Galway United and Waterford have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Dundalk
Shelbourne
Derry City
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers