Gandzasar’s recent slump - three straight defeats before a 0-3 loss to BKMA - has left the team desperate for a turnaround, while Syunik, still struggling with a 1-3 defeat to Sardarapat, faces a tough away fixture. The model sees a 57% chance of a home win, 22% for a draw, and 21% for an away win, making a home victory the clear favourite. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.9% probability. Gandzasar’s home form shows they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opponents, whereas Syunik’s away numbers mirror that pattern. The model’s only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.3% probability. In summary, Gandzasar is favoured to win 57%, a draw is 22%, and Syunik 21%. The predicted scoreline is 1-1, and the over 1.5 goal selection carries an 86.3% chance.
Results analysis
The updated form shows Gandzasar’s recent win extending a run after three straight defeats, while Syunik comes off a loss. The model’s favourite, a home win at 57%, proved correct as Gandzasar secured a 2-0 victory. The predicted 3-goal total was close to the actual 2 goals, and the model’s single selection, Over 1.5 with an 86.3% probability, hit. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 appeared in the model’s top three possibilities, with probabilities of 9.6% for 2-1 and 7.7% for 2-0. All suggested picks were settled, and the model’s forecast matched the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gandzasar win✓ Hit
57.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Syunik win✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.40
1.50
1.50
3.00
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
4.00
2.00
-
-
4.00
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.25
1.50
1.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.33
2.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
2.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
3.50
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.3%
Under 1.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.1%
Under 2.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.2%
Under 3.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.6%
2-0 ✓
7.7%
3-1
6.9%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.5%
Gandzasar goals ↓
Syunik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.3%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
1
6.3%
9.9%
5.6%
2.3%
0.7%
2
7.7%
9.6%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.5%
6.9%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
4
3.0%
3.7%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gandzasar goals (down), columns = Syunik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Armenia
2.25
BKMA II
2.13
Gandzasar
2.12
Ararat II
1.78
Ararat-Armenia II
1.72
Banants II
1.34
Pyunik II
1.31
Shirak II
1.23
Mika
1.03
Syunik
0.97
Alashkert II
0.65
Lernayin Artsakh II
0.11
Gandzasar is 1.16 points better than Syunik in terms of average points per game (2.12 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Gandzasar
2.59
West Armenia
2.56
BKMA II
2.42
Ararat-Armenia II
1.94
Ararat II
1.94
Banants II
1.81
Pyunik II
1.69
Syunik
1.32
Alashkert II
1.32
Shirak II
1.06
Lernayin Artsakh II
1.00
Mika
1.00
Gandzasar is 1.27 goals better than Syunik in terms of goals scored per game (2.59 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
BKMA II
0.97
Gandzasar
0.97
West Armenia
1.06
Shirak II
1.23
Ararat II
1.50
Ararat-Armenia II
1.62
Syunik
1.71
Pyunik II
1.72
Banants II
1.78
Mika
2.41
Alashkert II
3.19
Lernayin Artsakh II
3.72
Gandzasar is 0.74 goals better than Syunik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (25)
€3m
SYU (23)
€2m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
Gandzasar's squad is €1m more valuable than Syunik's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (8)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Gandzasar and Syunik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
Gandzasar and Syunik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (12)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
Gandzasar and Syunik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →