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GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Caernarfon Town Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 1-2
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Vs
43%
26%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

GAP Connah S Quay FC is expected to win this match, given their recent form, coming off a win with a strong performance against Holywell. The model predicts a home win, with a 43% chance of success. A draw is possible, with a 26% probability, while Caernarfon Town's chances of winning stand at 30%. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability.

At home, GAP Connah S Quay FC has scored an average of 1.86 goals and conceded 1.57. Caernarfon Town, on the other hand, has scored 1.57 goals and conceded 1.29 when playing away against stronger opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with an 80.5% probability, indicating a high likelihood of more than one goal being scored. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 30%.

Results analysis

Caernarfon Town's 1-2 win over GAP Connah S Quay FC extends their run of consecutive wins, coming off a defeat just last time out. The upset was complete as the pre-match favourite GAP Connah S Quay FC, with a 43% chance of winning, failed to come through. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's call on Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 80.5% probability. The actual result was an Away win, as predicted by the model's selection. The most likely score, 2-1, had a 24% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

GAP Connah S Quay FC win✗ Miss
43.3%
Avg Implied 42.3% · @ 2.13
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.30
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Dafabet
2.17
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.32
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.44
Superbet
3.35
Caernarfon Town win✓ Hit
30.3%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 2.97
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.25
Dafabet
3.15
1xBet
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
3.05

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D11D00D01L12L42W21W11D12L11DA·COL24/01H·CAE06/02A·PEN14/02A·BAR21/02H·THE03/03A·CAE13/03H·PEN21/03H·BAR29/03A·THE03/04H·COL18/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.132.071.331.930.93
vs Stronger (3)1.671.672.001.501.002.00
vs Similar (27)2.041.072.081.312.000.86
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L12L30W21W24L12L04L20W30W20WH·BAR14/02A·THE20/02H·COL27/02A·RHY08/03H·GAP13/03A·BAR21/03H·THE27/03A·COL03/04H·FLI12/04H·PEN18/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.331.931.671.471.00
vs Stronger (4)0.502.750.503.500.502.00
vs Similar (25)1.881.122.151.381.580.83
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
@ 1.21+5.3%
Under 1.5
19.5%
@ 3.67-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
888Sport
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.73+3.2%
Under 2.5
43.4%
@ 1.98-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.82
888Sport
1.80
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.75
Under
Bet365
2.15
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.2%
@ 2.75+1.0%
Under 3.5
65.8%
@ 1.37-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.88
10Bet
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.37
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.1%
@ 1.60+2.9%
No
39.9%
@ 2.14-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
No
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.18

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.21+5.2%
2-1
9.1%@ 7.97+3.6%
1-2 ✓
7.5%@ 9.78+2.9%
1-0
7.4%@ 8.26+2.0%
2-0
6.9%@ 10.56+2.7%
0-0
6.4%@ 11.05+2.3%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.28+2.1%
0-1
5.8%@ 9.87+1.3%
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals ↓
Caernarfon Town goals →
01234
06.4%5.8%4.6%2.0%0.7%
17.4%12%7.5%3.3%1.1%
26.9%9.1%6.1%2.7%0.9%
33.7%4.9%3.3%1.5%0.5%
41.5%2.0%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (down), columns = Caernarfon Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Briton Ferry
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Llandudno
0.99
Cambrian & Clydach
0.99
Holywell
0.95
Trefelin
0.89
Ammanford AFC
0.89
Airbus UK
0.72
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.41 points better than Caernarfon Town in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.41).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Llandudno
1.04
Cambrian & Clydach
1.04
Holywell
1.00
Trefelin
0.94
Ammanford AFC
0.94
Airbus UK
0.76
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.16 goals better than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Penybont
1.44
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
Llandudno
1.98
Cambrian & Clydach
1.98
Holywell
2.07
Trefelin
2.20
Ammanford AFC
2.20
Airbus UK
2.74
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.28 goals better than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W00D00D00D21W10W01L00D11DA·COL24/01H·CAE06/02A·PEN14/02A·BAR21/02H·THE03/03A·CAE13/03H·PEN21/03H·BAR29/03A·THE03/04H·COL18/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.400.870.330.870.47
vs Stronger (3)0.670.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.890.440.850.380.930.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D10W00D12L00D02L00D30W20WH·BAR14/02A·THE20/02H·COL27/02A·RHY08/03H·GAP13/03A·BAR21/03H·THE27/03A·COL03/04H·FLI12/04H·PEN18/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.570.930.730.470.40
vs Stronger (4)0.251.250.002.000.500.50
vs Similar (25)0.800.481.080.540.500.42
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L00D01L12L21W11D10W12L00DA·COL24/01H·CAE06/02A·PEN14/02A·BAR21/02H·THE03/03A·CAE13/03H·PEN21/03H·BAR29/03A·THE03/04H·COL18/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.731.201.001.070.47
vs Stronger (3)1.001.671.001.501.002.00
vs Similar (27)1.150.631.230.921.070.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L20W21W12L12L02L20W00D00DH·BAR14/02A·THE20/02H·COL27/02A·RHY08/03H·GAP13/03A·BAR21/03H·THE27/03A·COL03/04H·FLI12/04H·PEN18/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.771.000.931.000.60
vs Stronger (4)0.251.500.501.500.001.50
vs Similar (25)1.080.641.080.851.080.42
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.5%1.21
888Sport
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+5.3%✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
GCS wins
4
Draws
3
CT wins

Head-to-head

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Caernarfon Town · H/A from GCS
DateH/AGameScore
13/03/26ACaernarfon Town Vs GCS2-4
06/02/26HGCS Vs Caernarfon Town1-1
13/01/26ACaernarfon Town Vs GCS2-2
23/09/25HGCS Vs Caernarfon Town1-2
03/12/24HGCS Vs Caernarfon Town1-1
28/09/24ACaernarfon Town Vs GCS3-1
15/03/24ACaernarfon Town Vs GCS2-1
02/02/24HGCS Vs Caernarfon Town1-1

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HGCS Vs Colwyn Bay1-1
03/04/26AThe New Saints Vs GCS2-1
29/03/26HGCS Vs Barry Town1-1
21/03/26HGCS Vs Penybont2-1
13/03/26ACaernarfon Town Vs GCS2-4
03/03/26HGCS Vs The New Saints1-2
21/02/26ABarry Town Vs GCS1-0
14/02/26APenybont Vs GCS0-0
06/02/26HGCS Vs Caernarfon Town1-1
24/01/26AColwyn Bay Vs GCS2-2

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HCT Vs Penybont2-0
12/04/26HCT Vs Flint Town United3-0
03/04/26AColwyn Bay Vs CT0-2
27/03/26HCT Vs The New Saints0-4
21/03/26ABarry Town Vs CT2-1
13/03/26HCT Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC2-4
08/03/26ARhyl Vs CT1-2
27/02/26HCT Vs Colwyn Bay3-0
20/02/26AThe New Saints Vs CT2-1
14/02/26HCT Vs Barry Town0-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD1.66
HomeDLWDD1.78
AwayDDLWL1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%52%44%
AVG goals2.863.132.63
Over 1.5 %84%91%78%
Over 2.5 %62%65%59%
Over 3.5 %28%35%22%
Scored1.721.911.56
Conceded1.141.221.07
BTTS58%65%52%
Clean Sheet28%22%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.56
HomeWLLWW1.69
AwayDLWLW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals3.363.583.12
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %64%73%54%
Over 3.5 %42%50%33%
Scored1.942.191.67
Conceded1.421.381.46
BTTS62%58%67%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Barry TownBarry Town412
100%
3.0
94+5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
2The New SaintsThe New Saints410
75%
2.5
80+8
2.0
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.0
-
3PenybontPenybont410
75%
2.5
72+5
2.2
75%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.80.5
-
4GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC49
75%
2.2
123+9
3.8
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.8
-
5LlandudnoLlandudno49
75%
2.2
115+6
4.0
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.2
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town49
75%
2.2
83+5
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
7Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach47
50%
1.8
63+3
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.8
-
8Briton FerryBriton Ferry47
50%
1.8
43+1
1.8
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
9Colwyn BayColwyn Bay47
50%
1.8
55+0
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
10Cardiff METCardiff MET46
50%
1.5
87+1
3.8
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.8
-
11Airbus UKAirbus UK46
50%
1.5
33+0
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.8
-
12Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC41
0%
0.2
38-5
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
13Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United40
0%
0.0
48-4
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
14Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC40
0%
0.0
09-9
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.02.2
-
15HolywellHolywell40
0%
0.0
415-11
4.8
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.8
-
16TrefelinTrefelin40
0%
0.0
014-14
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.5
-
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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