GAP Connah S Quay FC are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 71% chance of a home win and a 70.6% probability to the “Home win” selection. The 3.4 expected goals and a 22% chance of exactly three goals set a high-scoring tone, but the most likely scoreline is 2-0, which carries a 10.3% probability. GAP’s home form is strong, averaging 2.64 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Cardiff MET struggles away, netting only 0.91 goals and conceding 1.45. The model’s picks include Over 1.5 goals at 85.9% and the Home win at 70.6%. The draw probability sits at 18%, and the away win at 11%. With a 5-game winning streak and a recent 2-1 victory over Flint Town United, GAP’s momentum and venue advantage make the 2-0 scoreline the most credible outcome.
Results analysis
The win extends GAP Connah S Quay FC’s five-game streak, while Cardiff MET’s two-game run ended with a 2-1 defeat. The model’s favourite, a home win at 70.6%, proved correct, and the final score of 2-1 matched the actual result. Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.9% probability, also hit. The predicted most likely score of 2-0 fell short, but the 2-1 outcome was within the model’s top three possibilities. With a 71% chance of a home victory, the model’s call was spot on, and its selections largely came through, confirming the accuracy of the Pythia predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC win✓ Hit
70.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET win✗ Miss
11.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.37
2.57
1.14
2.00
1.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
4.67
0.00
4.00
1.50
5.00
vs Similar (22)
2.36
1.00
2.64
1.00
2.09
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.60
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.87
1.50
1.50
1.00
2.29
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
4.20
1.50
2.50
1.33
5.33
vs Similar (25)
1.24
1.40
1.50
1.36
0.91
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.7%
Under 2.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.9%
Under 3.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.3%
2-1 ✓
9.5%
3-0
8.5%
1-1
8.4%
3-1
7.8%
1-0
7.6%
4-0
5.3%
4-1
4.8%
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals ↓
Cardiff MET goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
2.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
1
7.6%
8.4%
3.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
10%
9.5%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
8.5%
7.8%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
4
5.3%
4.8%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (down), columns = Cardiff MET goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.66 points better than Cardiff MET in terms of average points per game (1.84 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 1.13 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals scored per game (2.19 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.63 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.67
1.43
0.64
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.45
1.36
0.45
1.09
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.56
0.56
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.40
0.50
1.50
0.67
3.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.56
0.57
0.43
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
1.14
0.50
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.55
1.27
0.55
1.00
0.55
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.94
0.94
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.80
1.00
1.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.84
0.93
0.93
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
Penybont
Bala Town
Caernarfon Town
Newtown AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Barry Town
Pontypridd Town
Aberystwyth Town
Colwyn Bay