GAP Connah S Quay FC are favoured to win, with a 50 % chance of triumph, 26 % for a draw and 24 % for Cardiff MET to lift the trophy. The model projects an average of 2.9 goals, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3 % chance. Home side GAP Connah S Quay FC, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, average 2.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Cardiff MET, on the road, average 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2 %), Under 5.5 (93.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (90.3 %), Home +2 handicap (90.3 %), Away under 2.5 goals (89.4 %) and Under 4.5 (83.9 %). The home side’s recent form shows a three-game winning streak, while Cardiff MET returned from two straight defeats.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC win
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET win
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.03
2.50
1.14
2.06
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
2.22
1.04
2.20
1.30
2.23
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.50
4.50
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.40
1.94
1.69
1.50
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.67
1.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.36
2.07
1.50
1.00
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
-
-
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.6%
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals ↓
Cardiff MET goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.6%
4.2%
1.8%
0.6%
1
7.8%
12%
7.1%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.4%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
3
4.2%
5.2%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (down), columns = Cardiff MET goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.50 points better than Cardiff MET in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.17 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.50 goals better than Cardiff MET in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
GAP Connah S Quay FC or Draw
72.4%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
28%
covers GAP Connah S Quay FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC or Cardiff MET
73.7%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
28%
covers GAP Connah S Quay FC + Cardiff MET
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cardiff MET
53.9%
Avg Implied -
46%
26%
28%
covers Draw + Cardiff MET
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5
Over
81.2%
Under
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
Under
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to GAP Connah S Quay FC, so a minus line means GAP Connah S Quay FC give that many goals of a start and Cardiff MET receive them. At -1, GAP Connah S Quay FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal GAP Connah S Quay FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (GAP Connah S Quay FC)
GAP Connah S Quay FC -2
10.6%
Draw -2
14.3%
Cardiff MET +2
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (GAP Connah S Quay FC)
GAP Connah S Quay FC -1
24.9%
Draw -1
21.2%
Cardiff MET +1
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (GAP Connah S Quay FC)
GAP Connah S Quay FC +1
72.4%
Draw +1
15.6%
Cardiff MET -1
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (GAP Connah S Quay FC)
GAP Connah S Quay FC +2
88.0%
Draw +2
8.1%
Cardiff MET -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.37
1.14
0.29
1.06
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.39
1.00
0.40
1.23
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.56
0.62
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.60
0.64
0.57
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.36
0.86
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.65
1.20
0.90
1.00
0.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
1.38
1.06
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.76
1.43
0.93
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Cardiff MET have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell