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GAP Connah S Quay FC vs The New Saints Result & Analysis

Date: 23/12/2022
Time: 19:45
Final 1-1
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Vs
29%
30%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
The New Saints
The New Saints
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

GAP Connah S Quay FC win✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
The New Saints win✗ Miss
40.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W20W10W20W10W31W50W33D21W30WH·PON24/09A·CAE27/09H·HAV01/10H·CAR15/10A·PEN22/10H·NEW28/10A·PON06/11H·CAE18/11A·AIR02/12H·ABE20/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.810.691.890.441.711.00
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (10)1.800.501.670.502.000.50
vs Weaker (5)2.000.802.330.331.501.50
Clean sheet %62% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 – goals for & against
110-1170W62W41W50W20W30W31W40W00D110WA·CAR17/09H·FLI27/09H·NEW30/09A·BAL15/10H·PON22/10H·CAE25/10A·HAV29/10H·CAR05/11A·PEN19/11H·ABE02/12
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
4.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.790.423.400.402.110.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.250.750.500.000.001.50
vs Weaker (15)3.470.334.120.502.710.14
Clean sheet %68% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%312%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.3%
Under 1.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.8%
Under 2.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.2%
0-1
10.8%
0-0
10.4%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.5%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.3%
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals ↓
The New Saints goals →
01234
010%11%7.9%3.5%1.1%
18.5%14%8.5%3.7%1.2%
25.3%7.0%4.6%2.0%0.7%
31.9%2.5%1.6%0.7%0.2%
40.5%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (down), columns = The New Saints goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.59
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Penybont
1.81
Cardiff MET
1.61
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Bala Town
1.33
Newtown AFC
1.32
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Caernarfon Town
1.22
Aberystwyth Town
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Airbus UK
0.06
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.69 points worse than The New Saints in terms of average points per game (1.91 vs 2.59).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.50
Bala Town
1.61
Penybont
1.59
Caernarfon Town
1.59
Newtown AFC
1.59
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.47
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.41
Flint Town United
1.28
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Aberystwyth Town
1.28
Cardiff MET
1.24
Airbus UK
0.56
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 2.09 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 3.50).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.72
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.24
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.48
Pontypridd Town
1.62
Flint Town United
1.66
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Newtown AFC
1.74
Aberystwyth Town
2.28
Airbus UK
3.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 0.19 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals conceded per game (0.72 vs 0.53).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D00D10W00D20W40W01L10W10WH·PON24/09A·CAE27/09H·HAV01/10H·CAR15/10A·PEN22/10H·NEW28/10A·PON06/11H·CAE18/11A·AIR02/12H·ABE20/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.810.190.780.110.860.29
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.800.200.670.171.000.25
vs Weaker (5)0.800.001.000.000.500.00
Clean sheet %81% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W20W31W20W20W20W20W20W00D40WA·CAR17/09H·FLI27/09H·NEW30/09A·BAL15/10H·PON22/10H·CAE25/10A·HAV29/10H·CAR05/11A·PEN19/11H·ABE02/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.260.161.600.200.890.11
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.000.250.000.000.000.50
vs Weaker (15)1.600.132.000.251.140.00
Clean sheet %84% (+57pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W10W10W11D10W32W11D20WH·PON24/09A·CAE27/09H·HAV01/10H·CAR15/10A·PEN22/10H·NEW28/10A·PON06/11H·CAE18/11A·AIR02/12H·ABE20/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.501.110.330.860.71
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (10)1.000.301.000.331.000.25
vs Weaker (5)1.200.801.330.331.001.50
Clean sheet %62% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
70-740W42W10W30W00D10W11D20W00D70WA·CAR17/09H·FLI27/09H·NEW30/09A·BAL15/10H·PON22/10H·CAE25/10A·HAV29/10H·CAR05/11A·PEN19/11H·ABE02/12
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.530.261.800.201.220.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.250.500.500.000.001.00
vs Weaker (15)1.870.202.120.251.570.14
Clean sheet %79% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.3%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC's squad is €2m less valuable than The New Saints's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and The New Saints have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and The New Saints have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and The New Saints have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
GCS wins
0
Draws
1
TNS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs The New Saints · H/A from GCS
DateH/AGameScore
26/08/22AThe New Saints Vs GCS2-1

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/12/22HGCS Vs Aberystwyth Town3-0
02/12/22AAirbus UK Vs GCS1-2
18/11/22HGCS Vs Caernarfon Town3-3
06/11/22APontypridd Town Vs GCS0-5
28/10/22HGCS Vs Newtown AFC3-1
22/10/22APenybont Vs GCS0-1
15/10/22HGCS Vs Cardiff MET2-0
01/10/22HGCS Vs Haverfordwest County AFC1-0
27/09/22ACaernarfon Town Vs GCS0-2
24/09/22HGCS Vs Pontypridd Town1-0

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/12/22HTNS Vs Aberystwyth Town11-0
19/11/22APenybont Vs TNS0-0
05/11/22HTNS Vs Cardiff MET4-0
29/10/22AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs TNS1-3
25/10/22HTNS Vs Caernarfon Town3-0
22/10/22HTNS Vs Pontypridd Town2-0
15/10/22ABala Town Vs TNS0-5
30/09/22HTNS Vs Newtown AFC4-1
27/09/22HTNS Vs Flint Town United6-2
17/09/22ACardiff MET Vs TNS0-7

📊 16. Overall Statistics

GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW2.31
HomeWWWDW2.78
AwayLWWWW1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %75%89%57%
AVG goals2.502.332.71
Over 1.5 %69%56%86%
Over 2.5 %44%33%57%
Over 3.5 %19%22%14%
Scored1.811.891.71
Conceded0.690.441.00
BTTS31%22%43%
Clean Sheet62%78%43%
Corners---
Cards---
The New Saints
The New Saints
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.37
HomeWWWWW2.80
AwayWWWWD1.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %74%90%56%
AVG goals3.213.802.56
Over 1.5 %68%70%67%
Over 2.5 %47%60%33%
Over 3.5 %37%40%33%
Scored2.793.402.11
Conceded0.420.400.44
BTTS21%30%11%
Clean Sheet68%70%67%
Corners12.509.5015.50
Cards6.335.009.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3283
81%
2.6
11217+95
4.0
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.50.5
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3261
53%
1.9
4523+22
2.1
69%
34%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.40.7
-
3PenybontPenybont3258
50%
1.8
5132+19
2.6
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.61.0
-
4Cardiff METCardiff MET3353
48%
1.6
4149-8
2.7
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
5Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
5045+5
2.8
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.3
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3445
38%
1.3
5459-5
3.3
82%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
7Bala TownBala Town3344
36%
1.3
5341+12
2.8
82%
58%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.2
-
8Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3241
38%
1.3
4152-11
2.9
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3239
38%
1.2
5154-3
3.3
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.7
-
10Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3238
34%
1.2
4173-32
3.6
91%
75%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
11Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
28%
1.1
4153-12
2.9
75%
47%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.7
-
12Airbus UKAirbus UK322
0%
0.1
18100-82
3.7
91%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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