This highly anticipated match between GAP Connah S Quay FC and Trefelin is finely balanced, with the home side coming off a win and the away side recovering from two straight defeats. The recent form of these teams suggests a closely contested encounter, with GAP Connah S Quay FC averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded at home, while Trefelin averages 2.33 goals scored and 0.44 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win, favouring the match result of GAP Connah S Quay FC winning with a probability of 38%. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, and the most likely score is 1-1 with a probability of 13.2%. The model's selection is the home win, with a draw percentage of 28% and an away win percentage of 34%.
The model also suggests taking the Over 1.5 goals with a probability of 77.8%, indicating a high likelihood of an open and attacking match.
Results analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC's 2-game winning streak continues, with a convincing 6-0 victory over Trefelin on the back of three consecutive defeats for the visitors. The home win was the predicted outcome, with a pre-match probability of 38%, and the model's call was correct. The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite, with Trefelin the underdog. The model's selection of Home win was the correct call. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 77.8% and a result of hit, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 25%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC win✓ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
-34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
Dafabet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 17.2% · @ 5.24
Edge
+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.98
Dafabet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Trefelin win✗ Miss
34.2%
Avg Implied 10.0% · @ 8.99
Edge
+24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
10.50
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
10.00
William Hil
10.00
888Sport
10.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.10
2.14
1.29
2.00
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
2.15
1.00
2.17
1.25
2.14
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trefelin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.67
0.73
2.36
0.93
2.94
0.56
vs Stronger (22)
2.77
0.64
2.70
0.50
2.83
0.75
vs Similar (8)
2.38
1.00
1.50
2.00
3.25
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
@ 1.11-4.1%
Under 1.5
22.2%
@ 5.04+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.43-11.3%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 2.53+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.74
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.4%
@ 2.10-13.5%
Under 3.5
69.6%
@ 1.64+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
888Sport
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.6%
@ 1.83+7.5%
No
42.4%
@ 1.83-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
1.87
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
No
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.87
10Bet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 9.90+8.7%
2-1
8.6%@ 8.10+3.1%
1-2
8.1%@ 24.77+6.3%
1-0
7.7%@ 8.01+2.2%
0-0
7.4%@ 16.30+4.7%
0-1
7.2%@ 25.56+5.4%
2-0
6.4%@ 6.49-0.5%
2-2
5.8%@ 18.63+3.4%
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals ↓
Trefelin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.2%
5.6%
2.5%
0.9%
1
7.7%
13%
8.1%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.4%
8.6%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.0%
4.1%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (down), columns = Trefelin goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 2.33 points better than Trefelin in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 2.50 goals better than Trefelin in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 0.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
GAP Connah S Quay FC is 2.17 goals better than Trefelin in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 2.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
0.93
0.36
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.42
0.92
0.42
1.14
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trefelin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.14
0.64
1.19
0.38
vs Stronger (22)
1.23
0.45
1.40
0.40
1.08
0.50
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.62
0.50
1.25
1.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.67
1.21
0.93
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
0.58
1.25
0.83
1.00
0.36
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Trefelin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trefelin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.23
1.21
0.29
1.75
0.19
vs Stronger (22)
1.55
0.18
1.30
0.10
1.75
0.25
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.38
1.00
0.75
1.75
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
87% (+59pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Trefelin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.8%
1.11
Betano
1.15
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
-4.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Trefelin have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Trefelin have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Trefelin have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
GAP Connah S Quay FC and Trefelin have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Holywell