Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026

Time: 13:00

Final 0-2

Gareji

46%

28%

26%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Aragvi Dusheti

Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Gareji is the favourite to win this match, with a recent storyline of coming off a draw against Telavi. The model predicts a home win, with a 45% chance of victory. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with an average of 2.6 goals and a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.5%. Gareji has been scoring 1.33 goals at home, conceding 1.5, while Aragvi Dusheti has been scoring 0.33 goals away, conceding 2.0 against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is the home win, with a 45% chance. The suggested picks are Under 3.5, with a 74.3% probability, and Over 1.5, with a 73.9% probability. There is no edge in these selections. The home win percentage is 45%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 26%.

Results analysis

The away team Aragvi Dusheti pulled off a stunning upset, defeating the previously undefeated Gareji 0-2, ending their 5-game winning streak. The win extends their run of 5 matches, including a 2-0 victory over Gareji just last time out. The model's selection, a Home win, was wrong, as the model had assigned a 46% probability of a Gareji victory. The model's call was incorrect. The model's suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit, with a probability of 74.3%, as the actual score was 0-2. The other suggested pick, Over 1.5, also hit, with a 73.9% probability, despite the low-scoring match.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gareji win✗ Miss

45.7%

Avg Implied 51.8% · @ 1.75

Edge

-6.1%

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.85

Dafabet

1.82

1xBet

1.82

Marathonbet

1.78

Betfair

1.75

Draw✗ Miss

28.3%

Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.28

Edge

+0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Bet365

3.50

10Bet

3.45

Betfair

3.30

Betano

3.25

BetVictor

3.25

Aragvi Dusheti win✓ Hit

26.0%

Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.41

Edge

+5.5%

Best 5 market prices

10Bet

4.80

Bet365

4.75

BetVictor

4.60

Betfair

4.40

1xBet

4.34

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Gareji

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.9

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

1.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.27	1.57	1.12	1.94	1.43	1.14
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (24)	1.21	1.71	0.92	2.00	1.55	1.36
vs Weaker (6)	1.50	1.00	2.00	1.67	1.00	0.33
Clean sheet %	20% (-6pp vs league)

This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi Dusheti

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.9

Avg scored

1.3

Avg conceded

1.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.30	1.40	1.44	1.44	1.14	1.36
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (28)	1.32	1.32	1.40	1.27	1.23	1.38
vs Weaker (2)	1.00	2.50	2.00	4.00	0.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	20% (-6pp vs league)

This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

73.9%

@ 1.39+8.8%

Under 1.5

26.1%

@ 2.59-8.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

1.39

1xBet

1.39

Under

Marathonbet

2.59

1xBet

2.59

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

47.4%

@ 2.20+5.5%

Under 2.5

52.6%

@ 1.58-5.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.31

Marathonbet

2.29

BetVictor

2.25

Bet365

2.20

Betano

2.15

Under

Bet365

1.65

Dafabet

1.64

10Bet

1.60

BetVictor

1.57

Betano

1.55

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

25.7%

@ 4.25+4.4%

Under 3.5

74.3%

@ 1.15-4.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

4.25

Marathonbet

4.25

Under

1xBet

1.15

Marathonbet

1.15

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

52.3%

@ 2.06+7.8%

47.7%

@ 1.65-7.8%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

BetVictor

2.10

1xBet

2.04

Marathonbet

2.04

1xBet

1.66

BetVictor

1.65

Marathonbet

1.64

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

13.5%@ 6.20+6.8%

1-0

10.2%@ 5.20+2.2%

2-1

9.2%@ 7.80+3.8%

0-0

8.9%@ 7.50+3.3%

2-0

8.6%@ 6.55+2.2%

0-1

7.0%@ 9.50+2.6%

1-2

6.6%@ 14.20+3.7%

2-2

4.9%@ 17.20+2.5%

Gareji goals ↓

	Aragvi Dusheti goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	7.0%	4.4%	1.6%	0.4%
1	10%	14%	6.6%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.6%	9.2%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.3%	4.6%	2.5%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.6%	1.7%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Aragvi Dusheti goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Telavi

2.12

Gareji

1.75

Sioni

1.62

Samtredia

1.62

Aragvi Dusheti

1.50

Odishi 1919

1.38

Gori

1.25

Shturmi

1.00

Kolkheti Poti

0.75

Merani Martvili

0.62

Gareji is 0.25 points better than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Samtredia

2.00

Gareji

1.50

Sioni

1.38

Gori

1.38

Aragvi Dusheti

1.38

Telavi

1.00

Kolkheti Poti

1.00

Odishi 1919

0.88

Merani Martvili

0.62

Shturmi

0.62

Gareji is 0.12 goals better than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Telavi

0.38

Shturmi

1.12

Gori

1.12

Odishi 1919

1.12

Gareji

1.25

Kolkheti Poti

1.25

Aragvi Dusheti

1.25

Merani Martvili

1.38

Sioni

1.38

Samtredia

1.50

Gareji and Aragvi Dusheti are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Gareji

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

0.5

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.43	0.70	0.56	0.94	0.29	0.43
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (24)	0.29	0.75	0.38	1.00	0.18	0.45
vs Weaker (6)	1.00	0.50	1.33	0.67	0.67	0.33
Clean sheet %	53% (+28pp vs league)

This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi Dusheti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.50	0.60	0.69	0.62	0.29	0.57
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (28)	0.50	0.57	0.67	0.53	0.31	0.62
vs Weaker (2)	0.50	1.00	1.00	2.00	0.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	53% (+28pp vs league)

This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

0.0%

Under 0.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

0.0%

Under 1.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

0.0%

Under 2.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Gareji

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.83	0.87	0.56	1.00	1.14	0.71
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (24)	0.92	0.96	0.54	1.00	1.36	0.91
vs Weaker (6)	0.50	0.50	0.67	1.00	0.33	0.00
Clean sheet %	43% (+18pp vs league)

This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi Dusheti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.80	0.80	0.75	0.81	0.86	0.79
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (28)	0.82	0.75	0.73	0.73	0.92	0.77
vs Weaker (2)	0.50	1.50	1.00	2.00	0.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	43% (+18pp vs league)

This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under

Over 0.5

0.0%

Under 0.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

0.0%

Under 1.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

0.0%

Under 2.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 3.5	74.3%	1.15	1xBet 1.15	Marathonbet 1.15	-	-	-	-4.4%	✓ Hit
Over 1.5	73.9%	1.39	Marathonbet 1.39	1xBet 1.39	-	-	-	+8.8%	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

KP (3)

€0m

SAM (4)

€0m

GOR (2)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

KP (2)

€0m

GOR (2)

€0m

SAM (1)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SAM (1)

€0m

KP (0)

€0m

GOR (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SAM (2)

€0m

KP (1)

€0m

GOR (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings

GAR wins

Draws

AD wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti · H/A from GAR

Date	H/A	Game	Score
05/10/24	A	Aragvi Dusheti Vs GAR	1-3
10/08/24	H	GAR Vs Aragvi Dusheti	2-0
01/05/24	A	Aragvi Dusheti Vs GAR	3-5
07/03/24	H	GAR Vs Aragvi Dusheti	0-1

Gareji

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
08/08/26	A	Telavi Vs GAR	0-0
22/06/26	H	GAR Vs Odishi 1919	1-2
17/06/26	H	GAR Vs Shturmi	0-0
13/06/26	A	Gori Vs GAR	1-3
30/05/26	H	GAR Vs Samtredia	3-2
14/12/25	A	Spaeri Vs GAR	1-2
10/12/25	H	GAR Vs Spaeri	0-2
06/12/25	A	Torpedo Kutaisi Vs GAR	2-1
30/11/25	H	GAR Vs Saburtalo	0-4
25/11/25	A	Gagra Vs GAR	4-1

Aragvi Dusheti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
08/08/26	H	AD Vs Samtredia	2-4
22/06/26	A	Telavi Vs AD	1-0
17/06/26	H	AD Vs Sioni	3-2
13/06/26	A	Odishi 1919 Vs AD	1-1
29/05/26	H	AD Vs Merani Martvili	1-1
15/12/25	A	Lokomotivi Tbilisi Vs AD	0-1
11/12/25	H	AD Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi	2-3
16/12/24	H	AD Vs Saburtalo II	0-1
12/12/24	A	Saburtalo II Vs AD	2-2
08/12/24	H	AD Vs Shturmi	1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Gareji

Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWDLD	1.16
Home	LLWDL	1.08
Away	LLWWD	1.25

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	26%	23%	29%
AVG goals	2.78	2.88	2.67
Over 1.5 %	72%	69%	75%
Over 2.5 %	56%	58%	54%
Over 3.5 %	42%	46%	38%
Scored	1.36	1.38	1.33
Conceded	1.42	1.50	1.33
BTTS	62%	58%	67%
Clean Sheet	20%	19%	21%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Aragvi Dusheti

Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2

Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DDWLL	1.26
Home	LLDWL	1.38
Away	LDWDL	1.13

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	34%	38%	30%
AVG goals	2.74	3.42	2.04
Over 1.5 %	72%	83%	61%
Over 2.5 %	49%	58%	39%
Over 3.5 %	28%	38%	17%
Scored	1.34	1.75	0.91
Conceded	1.40	1.67	1.13
BTTS	57%	79%	35%
Clean Sheet	23%	12%	35%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Telavi	8	17	62%	2.1	8	3	+5	1.4	38%	12%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	0.4	-
2	Gareji	8	14	50%	1.8	12	10	+2	2.8	75%	62%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	-
3	Samtredia	8	13	50%	1.6	16	12	+4	3.5	75%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.5	-
4	Sioni	8	13	50%	1.6	11	11	+0	2.8	62%	50%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.4	-
5	Aragvi Dusheti	8	12	38%	1.5	11	10	+1	2.6	75%	25%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.2	-
6	Odishi 1919	8	11	38%	1.4	7	9	-2	2.0	62%	50%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	1.1	-
7	Gori	8	10	38%	1.2	11	9	+2	2.5	62%	38%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.1	-
8	Shturmi	8	8	25%	1.0	5	9	-4	1.8	50%	38%	12%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.6	1.1	-
9	Kolkheti Poti	8	6	0%	0.8	8	10	-2	2.2	75%	38%	25%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.2	-
10	Merani Martvili	8	5	12%	0.6	5	11	-6	2.0	75%	38%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.6	1.4	-

Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

← all matches

Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Gareji

Aragvi Dusheti

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Gareji

Aragvi Dusheti

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Gareji

Aragvi Dusheti

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Gareji

Aragvi Dusheti

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature