This match between Gareji and Kolkheti Poti in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 is finely balanced, with Kolkheti Poti coming off a draw against Telavi and Gareji recently defeated by Aragvi Dusheti. The model's selection for the match result is an away win, with a 40% probability of Kolkheti Poti emerging victorious. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, with an 80.4% probability.
The expected number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability. Gareji has a home scoring average of 1.67 goals and concedes an average of 1.5 goals at home, while Kolkheti Poti scores an average of 0.92 goals away against stronger opponents and concedes 2.17 goals away.
The model's selection for the match result is an away win, with a 40% probability, while the home win probability is 33% and the draw probability is 27%. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, with an 80.4% probability, and the home win percentage is 33%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 40%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Gareji, riding a win in their last five, overturned the pre-match favourite Kolkheti Poti and claimed a 3-2 victory. The model had tipped an away win with a 41 % probability, but that call was wrong. The match also confirmed the model’s other selections: Under 7.5 goals hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit, Under 6.5 hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit, Home under 3.5 goals hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit, and Away under 3.5 goals hit. Each hit was recorded with its probability - 98.9 %, 98.7 %, 97.2 %, 96.9 %, 95.5 %, 94.7 %, 93.6 %, and 92.6 % respectively. The final score of 3-2 matched the model’s most likely 1-2 outcome, yet the actual winner was the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Gareji win✓ Hit
32.8%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.49
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.79
Betano
2.77
Dafabet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.65
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.17
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
Dafabet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.18
Pinnacle
3.11
Bet365
3.10
Kolkheti Poti win✗ Miss
40.5%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.90
Edge
+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
2.60
Dafabet
2.36
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Gareji
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.57
1.06
1.94
1.43
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.17
1.71
0.85
2.00
1.55
1.36
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kolkheti Poti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.97
1.00
1.93
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (15)
1.07
2.33
1.29
2.57
0.88
2.12
vs Similar (13)
1.00
1.62
0.71
1.43
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
@ 1.39+15.2%
Under 1.5
19.5%
@ 2.61-15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Under
Marathonbet
2.66
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.59
Pinnacle
2.53
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.7%
@ 2.22+15.3%
Under 2.5
43.3%
@ 1.57-15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Under
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.3%
@ 4.25+13.0%
Under 3.5
65.7%
@ 1.15-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
3.90
Under
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.5%
@ 1.94+13.1%
No
39.5%
@ 1.75-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.93
BetVictor
1.90
No
BetVictor
1.80
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.17+5.5%
1-2
8.9%@ 12.58+5.5%
2-1
7.9%@ 8.76+3.0%
0-1
7.0%@ 8.88+2.2%
0-2
6.4%@ 15.76+3.7%
0-0
6.3%@ 7.58+0.7%
2-2
6.2%@ 16.20+3.5%
1-0
6.1%@ 6.02-1.0%
Gareji goals ↓
Kolkheti Poti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
7.0%
6.4%
3.3%
1.3%
1
6.1%
12%
8.9%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.0%
7.9%
6.2%
3.2%
1.3%
3
2.3%
3.6%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Gareji goals (down), columns = Kolkheti Poti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Gareji is 1.00 points better than Kolkheti Poti in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Gareji is 0.50 goals better than Kolkheti Poti in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Gareji and Kolkheti Poti are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Gareji or Draw✓ Hit
59.5%
Avg Implied 69.4% · @ 1.34
Edge
-10.0%
33%
27%
41%
covers Gareji + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.30
Gareji or Kolkheti Poti✓ Hit
73.3%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.4%
33%
27%
41%
covers Gareji + Kolkheti Poti
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.33
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw or Kolkheti Poti✗ Miss
67.2%
Avg Implied 56.9% · @ 1.64
Edge
+10.4%
33%
27%
41%
covers Draw + Kolkheti Poti
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
1.50
BetVictor
1.40
Betano
1.35
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Gareji over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.1%
@ 1.36+8.0%
Under
24.9%
@ 2.77-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.04
Pinnacle
2.50
Gareji over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.5%
@ 2.62+5.1%
Under
59.5%
@ 1.43-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
2.61
Pinnacle
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.31
Gareji over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
16.4%
Under
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.1%
@ 1.48+17.6%
Under
20.9%
@ 2.37-17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.42
Under
1xBet
2.53
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
2.13
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.4%
@ 2.80+13.6%
Under
53.6%
@ 1.36-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.22
Marathonbet
2.61
Pinnacle
2.56
Under
Marathonbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.28
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Gareji, so a minus line means Gareji give that many goals of a start and Kolkheti Poti receive them. At -1, Gareji must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Gareji win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Gareji)Actual: Kolkheti Poti
Gareji -2
5.5%
@ 6.85-6.0%
Draw -2
9.8%
@ 4.35-8.3%
Kolkheti Poti +2
84.6%
@ 1.12+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.85
Draw
Marathonbet
4.35
Away
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Gareji)Actual: Draw
Gareji -1
15.4%
@ 4.67-5.4%
Draw -1
17.4%
@ 3.77-8.3%
Kolkheti Poti +1
67.2%
@ 1.81+13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
6.75
Betfair
2.60
Draw
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
3.30
Away
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
1.33
Handicap +1 (Gareji)Actual: Gareji
Gareji +1
59.5%
@ 1.49+0.6%
Draw +1
19.8%
@ 3.66-4.2%
Kolkheti Poti -1
20.8%
@ 5.10+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.49
Draw
Marathonbet
3.66
Away
Marathonbet
5.10
Handicap +2 (Gareji)Actual: Gareji
Gareji +2
79.2%
@ 1.11+7.9%
Draw +2
12.5%
@ 4.65-4.6%
Kolkheti Poti -2
8.3%
@ 6.80-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Marathonbet
6.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Gareji
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.56
1.00
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.29
0.79
0.38
1.08
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.67
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kolkheti Poti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.67
0.67
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.20
0.71
1.00
0.25
1.38
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.62
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.3%
@ 1.44+6.1%
Under 0.5
30.7%
@ 2.48-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
1xBet
2.39
Pinnacle
2.38
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.9%
@ 3.21+8.3%
Under 1.5
63.1%
@ 1.28-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.28
Betfair
3.00
Under
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.7%
@ 8.25-0.7%
Under 2.5
89.3%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.1%
@ 2.25+13.8%
Under
45.9%
@ 1.52-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.36
1xBet
2.15
Under
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.46
Gareji over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.1%
@ 2.28-3.7%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.51+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.44
Pinnacle
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.45
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Gareji
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.50
0.94
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.92
0.46
0.92
1.36
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.50
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolkheti Poti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kolkheti Poti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.33
1.27
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.13
0.57
1.57
0.62
0.75
vs Similar (13)
0.46
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.1%
Under 0.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.3%
Under 1.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
19.7%
Under 2.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolkheti Poti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.1%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.05
Betfair
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+14.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
82.3%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.5%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
-
+15.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.2%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.1%
1.48
Marathonbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.42
-
-
+17.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.1%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.3%
1.27
BetVictor
1.33
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
-0.4%
✓ Hit
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Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →